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It Will Be Back

Trump has been defeated. No coup is coming. True, a worrying amount of damage is being done to the Pentagon and America’s national security due to Trump’s refusal to ensure a smooth transition and desire to pull a Nero Decree. This is on top of Republican attempts to directly undermine the election in states that flipped.

Regardless, the nightmare of the Trump presidency will be over in two months.

However, the forces that gave rise to Trumpism have merely been driven back, not defeated for good.

Call it what you want—Trumpism, white supremacy, the worst of America’s demons—it will be back. 

Either Trump himself will run again in 2024, or someone like him will.

And it will be someone who is smart enough not to brag about sexual assault in public, won’t insult war heroes in vital states, and knows how to run a disciplined operation that is not falling apart at the seams.

Trump insulted the US military and bragged about sexually assaulting women, and his campaign was a disorganized mess. Yet it still took a coalition unprecedented in American politics just to defeat him once. Let’s not forget that in 2020, 73 million Americans voted for Trump. In 2016, “only” about 62 million Americans voted for Trump. Doing the math, that means over 11 million more people voted for Trump this time. 

The only reason Trump has been defeated is because more than 80 million people voted for Joe Biden this time, compared with 65 million for Hillary Clinton in 2016—an increase of just over 15 million people, people who were desperate to get Trump out of the White House.

I am proud to count myself among that 80 million.

It Will Be Back

The it I am referring to consists of the same forces that gave rise to Trump. Although racism and institutionalized white supremacy are a critical part of the horror show (I would argue the key components, in fact), they are not the only part. A lack of respect for expertise, misogyny, and an appetite for mass slaughter are also critical ingredients. Another critical ingredient, a craving to burn things and institutions for its own sake, is something that must be planned for as well.

American democracy dodged a bullet, but it is not out of the woods yet. Millions of people support Trump’s vision for America. All it would take is someone less incompetent, and the fight will get a lot harder.

Think about Florida Senators Rick Scott and Marc Rubio, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Niki Haley, or Vice President Mike Pence. All of them could mobilize Trump’s base without Trump’s baggage, poor organizational skills, and lack of discipline.

This is not to say that Trumpism can’t be defeated or driven back. The outcome of the 2020 presidential race is resounding proof of that.

I am attempting to warn people that the threat has been driven back but not defeated for good.

As a result, we all must stay vigilant against the next threat coming. We don’t know who the next Trump will be.

But I know for a fact that person is coming in 2024.