Margins Matter
If one key lesson is to be learned from the 2022 midterms, it’s that margins absolutely matter.
No two regions demonstrate this more than the Great Lakes region and the American Southwest, mainly the states of Arizona and Nevada.
What Happened in the Great Lakes Region
The state that gave us Presidents Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln saw Democrats hold their substantial majorities in the Illinois state legislature, win all of their statewide races with ease, and gain a congressional seat.Here in Minnesota, I am proud to say that the DFL not only won all their statewide races (the margins for auditor and attorney general were a bit close for comfort; however, a win is still a win), but they also won the state senate and held the House. No congressional seats changed hands, though Representative Angie Craig of the Minnesota 2nd Congressional District had her best electoral performance yet.
The DFL has a trifecta in Minnesota.
In Wisconsin, it was objectively a draw. The GOP fell just short of gaining a supermajority in the state legislature and flipped the Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District, but with the exception of the state treasurer and Senate seat, Democrats won all the statewide races (although by frequently razor-thin margins). However, Wisconsin is a hard state to win even in good conditions for Democrats post-2010, so the fact that Ben Winkler (chair of the Wisconsin State Democratic Party) was able to secure the wins he and other Badger State Democrats did is incredible.
But the best results of the night in the Great Lakes undoubtedly came from Michigan. Not only did Democrats wipe the floor with all of their statewide candidates, they managed to flip two legislative chambers to gain a trifecta in Michigan.
Democrats have a trifecta in Michigan. The first in decades.
But it was not a good election night across the entire Great Lakes region.
As for Indiana and Ohio, Democrats had a pretty rough night. Tim Ryan was able to help Democrats get a congressional seat in Ohio, but Republicans solidified their hold on Ohio.
Republicans in the Hoosier State continued to consolidate their hold on the state legislature and gained a congressional seat.
In both Ohio and Indiana, Republicans won the statewide races by double-digit margins, with the exception of the Ohio Senate race, and that only because the Republicans ran a candidate who seriously underperformed.
What Happened in the Southwest
I called the results out of Arizona and Nevada a stalemate for a reason.Democrats won a supermajority in the state assembly but not the state senate in Nevada, while also winning the Senate race that secured the Senate for Democrats. Nevada Democrats also held all three of their congressional seats, while winning the attorney general race and, quite importantly, the secretary of state race in Nevada. But they lost the vital governor’s race in the Silver State along with the comptroller’s race.
In Arizona, Democrats won the governor’s, attorney general’s, and, most importantly, secretary of state’s races while gaining some ground in the state legislature. But Democrats lost two statewide races and two congressional seats and the two lost statewide seats to (relatively) normal Republicans.
If you count New Mexico as part of the Southwest, Democrats won all the statewide races in the Land of Enchantment while gaining a congressional seat but losing ground in the state legislature.
Get to Know These Counties
In Arizona, the margins in Maricopa County can tell us who is going to win the statewide race, all other counties being equal.Out of all the Democrats who won statewide in Arizona, Attorney General–elect Kris Mayes won Maricopa County by the slimmest margin (thus having by far the slimmest win), Governor-elect Katie Hobbs had a good performance, while Senator Mark Kelly ran away with the vote in Maricopa County.
About half of all the votes in Arizona are cast in Maricopa County, making it far and away the most important county in Arizona from a political perspective, although if you are underperforming elsewhere, Maricopa County will not save you.
In fact, Nevada can teach some painful lessons about how even minor underperformance can doom a campaign.
Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak lost because compared with other Democrats, especially Senator Cortez Masto, he slightly underperformed in Clark County (home of Las Vegas) but severely underperformed in Washoe County (home of Reno). Democrats got trounced in the sparsely populated rural counties in Nevada by similar margins, but what either saved or damned them in Nevada was how they performed in Vegas and Reno.
Wisconsin teaches the exact same lesson.
All the Democrats running for statewide office in the Badger State won Milwaukee and Dane Counties by similar margins, with Governor Evers slightly overperforming in both.
What made the difference was how Democrats performed in the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties) that surround Milwaukee County and the BOW counties (Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago Counties) that make up the Green Bay Metropolitan Area.
All the Democrats lost the acronym counties, but the margins by which they lost these counties determined their fates.
On average, Governor Evers lost the WOW counties by an average of 23.03 points, whereas Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in his Senate bid lost them by an average 27.67 points.
When you look at the BOW counties, Governor Evers lost them by an average of 4.17 points, whereas Barnes lost them by an average of 9.07 points.
If you recall, the main reason things went so badly for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey in 2021 was because of margins. Democrats badly underperformed in vital areas, and in places like Southwest Virginia, their support outright collapsed.
Liberal Librarian is probably going to say, “I told you so,” but campaigning in traditionally red areas matters to make up the difference.
Special Announcement
On April 4, 2023, there will be a special election for a Wisconsin State Supreme Court seat that could fundamentally change the game for Democrats in Wisconsin. On February 21, 2023, there will be a primary election in which the top two candidates will advance to the general election in April.Right now, all Badger State Democrats have been able to do is hold the line. If they can win this seat, they can push things forward and have a more even playing field.
Two liberal justices (in effect, Democrats) are running. They are Wisconsin Circuit Judges Everett Mitchell of Dane County and Janet Protasiewicz of Milwaukee County. Both judges appeared qualified, but I will let you decide who you would like to support.
Right now, it appears that Judge Protasiewicz has the momentum in terms of endorsements and fundraising, but it is important to vet candidates, and there is still some time. I don’t have a favorite between these two, but I am tilting toward (which means I could switch candidates upon getting new information) Judge Protasiewicz because she looks more likely to win a statewide race with her endorsements and resources on hand.
Information on both of these candidates will be included below.
Stay frosty.