Tempering Expectations: Jack Smith Edition
I learned my lesson in 2019.
As someone who proudly wore his Mueller Time t-shirt out in public, I had high hopes for what March's Mueller Report would reveal. When the report was issued, I read up on as much as I could and even bought the 448-page barn burner to read on my summer vacation. While the report did outline Russian meddling in the 2016 election, due to Bill Barr's unprecedented gaslighting of the redacted report's conclusions, the seriousness of the report's findings never made their way into the public discourse. Mueller essentially punted by suggesting a series of necessary reforms before the 2020 election but he was unable to prove that the Trump campaign knowingly and willingly colluded with Russian foreign agents. It wasn't until August of 2020 that the Senate Intelligence Committee released its fifth and final volume of its own investigation into Russian interference that the public at large finally saw the collusion we long suspected but by that point, Republicans and Democrats were well dug into their opinions about whether or not there had been actual collusion. Due to the narrow scope he had to work with, Robert Mueller was unable to give tens of millions of us closure on the obvious collusion that occurred and was continuing to occur right before our very eyes.
Jack Smith is no Robert Mueller.
He has a much broader scope for his special counsel investigation. His team is second to none. So while I feel confident that his 180-page filing on Trump's actions on January 6th will be much more thorough than the Mueller Report, I refuse to get my hopes up. While there is talk of Smith's filing being explosive, the fact is that it currently is under seal and will remain so until Judge Tanya Chutkan rules on whether to unseal it. While Judge Chutkan has previously rejected Trump's request to delay the case, that doesn't mean she will give the green light right away to unseal the filing. She could end up going the route of Judge Juan Merchan, who earlier this month announced that sentencing for Donald Trump's criminal case would not take place until after the election. Merchan did this, in part due to not wanting Trump's sentence to appear political in nature. Chutkan would be well within her right to follow Merchan's lead and refuse to unseal the filing until well after the election.
Or she could actually unseal the filing but due to the sensitive information contained would likely be a highly redacted version of what Jack Smith submits. Even if an unredacted filing is unveiled over the next week, odds are that it will unlikely move the needle in any significant way. Democrats overwhelmingly understand just how culpable Trump was for the events of January 6th. Republicans continue to deny Trump's role and sympathize with the rioters. New information might make it even more clear about Trump's dereliction of duty on the day in question. But at this point, over 45 months later, as explosive as new information might be, the reality is that few if any voters will be swayed by Jack Smith's initial filing. It would not be until a full trial that people could potentially be swayed, the likes of which wouldn't occur until 2025. No matter what happens over the next week, Donald Trump will not be facing any legal accountability before Election Day.
But this is how it needs to be. We need Donald Trump and his ilk to lose resoundingly to Kamala Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot. We don't want him crying foul or blaming a political "witch hunt" for keeping him out of office. While Donald Trump is currently facing 88 felony charges across 4 separate legal cases, none of these have been fully resolved over the past 4 years. With countless appeals and 6 robed allies on the nation's highest court, Donald Trump has bought enough time so that he can once again run for president not to serve the greater good but to keep himself out of jail. History books will be written on this period and a key takeaway will be how the wealthy in America simply lived in a time when they were able to manipulate the justice system in their favor. For a half-century, Donald Trump largely eluded any type of accountability. He knows his only way to maintain that is by once again residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
We and we alone are the only thing preventing this. Everything since 2015 has led us to this moment. Robert Mueller didn't save us in 2019. Jack Smith won't save us in 2024. Judge Merchan, Judge Chutkan, and Fani Willis are our friends but they will not be sentencing Donald Trump to any sort of punishment until after the election. Between now and November 5th it is the votes of 160 million Americans that will determine whether or not Donald Trump is actually held accountable for his crimes. We are his jury. We have 50+ years of evidence and a specific 4-year stint where we know exactly who Donald Trump is and what he has done. We aren't a jury; we don't get to pronounce Donald Trump guilty in a court of law. Instead, we get to say that he is not above the law by denying him a second presidential term. If we do that, then and only then will Donald Trump finally face the consequences he so richly deserves.
A fate necessary for our country to finally be rid of him once and for all.