Does anyone remember 2016?
Presidential campaigns can recover from bad debates; it happens all the time.
But what I am much more concerned about is how many supposed allies are calling for a brokered convention so that Biden can be replaced or for President Biden to be replaced without considering the how or even the who.
OK, there are people calling for Vice President Harris to take President Biden’s place on the top ticket. While that solves the logistics problems (up to a point) discussed below, it has its own set of serious problems. Nevertheless, they put forward a plausible name.
The two main sources are Bernie World and Never Trumpers.
With Bernie World denizens, the motives are obvious: they are attempting a coup because they are still mad about 2020 and possibly 2016. I would advise my fellow Democrats to treat them as such.
With that in mind, I don’t take what they say seriously.
In regard to the Never Trumpers, it’s a case-by-case basis.
For example, Rick Wilson and Stuart Stevens of the Lincoln Project have remained solid, with both reminding people not to stampede. Lincoln Project cofounder Reed Galen has kept his head.
Add Ana Navarro and Tara Setmeyer to that list as well.
On the other hand, Bulwark members Bill Kristol, Tim Miller, and others at the site have called for Biden to step down and find a replacement. Joe Walsh is among this group.
Naïve as this was in retrospect, I was hoping to use former Republican Never Trumpers to replace the Bernie/Warren wing of the Democratic Party.
I am that angry with the Bernie wing for 2016 and so much more.
The other groups calling for President Biden to step down are media pundits and the New York Times (along with much of the mainstream media). Their motives are obvious.
They want Trump back because Trump was wonderful for their bottom lines. Never mind that Trump and the Heritage Foundation have made it clear that they are targets.
Chickens for Colonel Sanders and all that.
Before we even consider the logistical nightmare that replacing an entire ticket entails, it is worth considering one of President Biden’s biggest strengths: his ability to recover from setbacks that have sunk other politicians.
Remember that before South Carolina in the 2020 primary and Super Tuesday, then–Vice President Biden’s campaign was on life support. He placed fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary.
Low on money and field offices, he faced countless calls for him to step down. I lost count of the number of autopsy reports for his campaign in early 2020.
Let’s also not forget the false allegations of sexual assault he faced in March and April 2020 from known liar Tara Reade in order to sink him.
In 2022, inflation was at record levels, and the Democratic Party was recovering from being defeated in Virgina across the board (along with Long Island) and the near losses in New Jersey. In most midterms in American politics, the president’s party in office takes big losses across the board, especially when the president is unpopular. Yet the Democrats had their best midterm as the incumbents in decades.
I would prefer a candidate who is able to take a beating and still win.
Professionals Talk Logistics
But let’s assume for some reason President Biden and Vice President Harris both step down.To keep up for the next couple of months, the presumptive Democrat would need to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in a matter of hours, not to mention purchase thousands of commercial spots in media markets all over the country in a matter of days, if not hours. Assuming that this nominee could just hire all of the current Biden campaign staff from top to bottom (a quite faulty assumption, I would add), you then have to revamp the campaign messages, introduce the candidate to tens of millions of voters at once, hire enough campaign staff, print brand-new campaign literature by the literal millions if not billions for door knockers, and fight off a GOP machine that will dig up and air all the candidate’s dirty laundry.
Before anyone says, “Just transfer the cash from the Biden-Harris campaign,” that is explicitly against campaign finance law.
Assuming that the nominee somehow pulls off several campaign logistical miracles in a row, the next part is going to be even harder.
Keeping the Democratic Party from fracturing.
One person’s dream candidate is another person’s red-line candidate. Let’s not forget that any public convention to nominate a Democratic candidate will make 2020 and 2016 look like a lovely afternoon stroll because of issues like Israel’s war in Gaza and countless other grievances the Bernie wing would bring up. The nominee would emerge weak and battered—easy prey for Trump’s campaign.
To put this in blunter terms, a brokered convention guarantees a Trump victory because it would not be a convention.
It would be a riot.
Take a look at what happened in 1968, the last time a brokered convention was held with great uncertainty about who the Democratic nominee would be.
That disaster helped elect Richard Nixon.
Does no one remember the dragged-out primary for Secretary Clinton in 2016?
Does anyone remember 2016?
In even starker terms, I don’t trust the Bernie wing not to make a brokered convention into an utter catastrophe for Democrats.
What Needs to Be Done
That is not to say that no changes are needed.Whoever prepped President Biden for his debate needs to be fired or at least moved to another part of the campaign. It was a bad idea to focus on policy answers when dealing with someone like Trump, who will do nothing but lie and bluster.
In addition, it appears that President Biden bit off more than he could chew by doing multiple high-intensity campaign events the same day of the debate. And the Biden campaign should have let people know that President Biden had a cold.
Lastly, President Biden is at his best when he can go off the cuff and for the throat. His debate prep team needs to understand that.
In addition, President Biden does well in town halls answering questions from voters. He should do more of those. Make sure he interacts with working-class voters and has a camera on him.
Also, we need to keep donating. Campaigns always need money.
The Harsh Truth
A message for the pundits, the Bernie left, and a faction of Never Trumpers.For the sake of argument, let us say that we are doomed to lose with President Biden or Vice President Harris.
In that case, we have already lost the election no matter what for the reasons mentioned when describing campaign logistics.
If you think that the campaign is already lost, with Trump guaranteed to sweep in Project 2025, either check the status of your passport, verify the immigration laws of countries where you can speak the language fluently, and start finding ways to get your money and assets out of the country or start a plan to become an insurgent.
Those are your only two options.
Do or die, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are the ticket.
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