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Prognosis II: More Serious Than Previously Thought

Photo by Artem Podrez from Pexels

One of the most consequential and important court cases is at risk of being overturned.

Roe V Wade.

If this 1972 court case is overturned, it will not ban abortion everywhere in America.

But the results will still be catastrophic because it will be left up to state governments. Many of which are already acting like fundamentalist/authoritarian regimes.

Republicans are introducing more and more methods of suppressing votes, mainly voters of color and other voters they don’t like.

Of far greater concern is that Republicans are introducing and passing legislation that will allow them to interfere with the work of election officials.

My own analysis indicated that after losing the 2020 election, Trump would attempt something like a coup out of desperation.

The implications were right in front of me.

I made a mistake in how caught off guard I was by it.

Current Situation

There are no changes in the partisanship of the seats so far in Congressional House Seats.

But the historical pattern is unmistakable.

The Party occupying the White House loses at least one chamber during the midterm elections, usually two.

It happened to the last four Presidents.

In addition, the GQP base is out for blood while too many Democratic voters are complacent.

Worst of all, Republicans are in control of the redistricting process in states like Florida and Texas, states that gained ground in the census.

The generic ballot ranges from D+6 at best to D+1 or even zero. Because of a combination of gerrymandering and Democratic voters being heavily concentrated in certain areas, Democrats have to run up the score in order to make any type of gains.

Between the House and the Senate, I am far more nervous about the House. The Senate will be anything but easy. However, the House is being held by a thread, and far more needs to go right for Democrats than the Senate.

Courses of Action

For those of you living in California, your state will be critical in deciding control of the House.

Democrats lost 5 House seats in California in 2019-2020, mainly around Orange County and Northern Los Angeles County.

If Democrats can flip those seats back, that will buy time for Democrats to minimize losses elsewhere.

Outside of California, focus on suburban districts around major cities and helping Democrats who represent districts that Trump won hold on for dear life.

I already have a list of candidates we should either donate to or

Winning in the suburbs is what won Democrats the house in 2018 in the first place, resulted in their victories in 2019 in Kentucky, Virginia and Louisiana, and ultimately helped Democrats gain a (slim) Federal Trifecta.

Don’t waste time on races we can’t win. Too much money went up in smoke last cycle on unwinnable races.

Discourage Democrats who are not serious about winning office from running. If they are only running to “make a statement” make an example out of them.

The most immediate races that require our attention are happening in Virginia. Links to the most viable candidate for Governor and Lieutenant Governor based on polling and endorsements will be posted below. Donate what you can. We cannot afford to lose in Virginia.

This move is like going all in after a rough losing streak at the Blackjack table.

I know it's a high stakes gamble, but does anyone have a better plan?

Help Democrats in Virginia

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