Open thread: It never happens. Until it does.

Earlier this week news broke that Manhattan district attorney Cy Vance had empaneled a grand jury to consider, among other things, returning indictments on his long-running investigation into Donald Trump and his sketchy businesses. This, on top of New York attorney general Letitia James changing her civil investigation of Trump into a criminal one, and her coordinating with Vance, had many of us great unwashed dancing with glee and fervor at the thought that the Rat was going to meet some comeuppance.

Of course, there always have to be doomscrollers. Among them the refrain is that Trump won't get convicted, much less indicted, because "people like him always get away with it". The rich and powerful never meet their just fates because of their wealth and power. Trump and his family won't be any different.

California was reliably Republican. Until it wasn't.

Georgia hadn't elected Democrats to the senate in a generation. Until it elected two of them.

The United States had never faced an active coup attempt. Until January 6th.

Prior history can be a guide, but it is by no means determinative. A thing never occurs, until it does. 

I'm in no way saying that Trump and his ilk facing punishment is a done deal. Vance's grand jury will be sitting until November. The Trump case isn't its only agenda item. We might get indictments in June, or in August, or at the end of the jury's term. Grand jury secrecy leaves those of us on the outside gnashing teeth and rending garments. But to right off the bat aver that "nothing will happen" is only not helpful, but inaccurate. That's a supposition not borne out by the scanty evidence we have at hand. But one thing we all know from popular culture is that grand juries exist solely for the purpose of returning indictments, even if it's one of a ham sandwich.

The fact of the matter is that until our phones blow up with breaking news about Trump doing the perp walk we know nothing. And yes, there's a benefit to lowering expectations. But at least in my bones this doesn't feel like that. Things are grinding, and hopefully very finely. I'm willing to live in hope, with the knowledge that sometimes hopes aren't fulfilled. And also knowing that things like this never happen. Until they do.

This is your open thread.