The Manchin end-game?
Sen. Joe Manchin is breaking with Democrats and throwing his weight behind a more measured voting rights bill in lieu of the sweeping Democratic voting reform bill that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has labeled a top priority of the caucus.
The Democrat from West Virginia told ABC News exclusively that he intends to support the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, a more narrowly tailored piece of voting rights legislation that he said he believes could muster bipartisan support even as voting legislation is becoming a flash point between the two parties.
"I believe Democrats and Republicans feel very strongly about protecting the ballot boxes allowing people to protect the right to vote making it accessible making it fair and making it secure and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, if we apply that to all 50 states and territories, it's something that can be done -- it should be done," Manchin told ABC News' Rachel Scott. "It could be done bipartisan to start getting confidence back in our system."
Now, the question is who are these ten Republicans who would cross the aisle to enact the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in lieu of the more expansive For the People Act. No Republican has yet come out in favor of the more tailored John Lewis legislation. Sen. Manchin might be chasing a unicorn.
But if you look at this from the view of strategy, it's not bad. The most conservative senator in the Democratic caucus has come out for restoring what the Roberts Court neutered. And he's saying it should apply to all states and territories, thus removing the sting of the South being targeted. "See, California has to abide by this law as well." As well it should; voting rights are not an issue specific to one region, as states outside of the Old South are also enacting voting restrictions.
Sen. Manchin is offering his colleagues across the aisle an opportunity. Are there enough Republicans who don't want to be in a personality cult who will break ranks and push through this legislation? Yes, it would be wonderful to have both acts passed. But the point of progressivism is to make progress. Keep moving the ball forward.
What happens, though, if there aren't enough Republicans who will join with Democrats? Then it will get interesting. If even the John Lewis Act is a bridge too far, will Sen. Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema throw up their hands and accept paralysis? Political logic would say "no". Maybe West Virginians don't care about voting rights, being a 95% white state. But a failure to come to agreement on this act will dispel an illusions that Democrats can negotiate with Republicans in good faith. All that they will receive is obstruction. Once all diplomacy has been exhausted, there's no other recourse than to bring out the political guns.
A few weeks ago the story was going around that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was counting on Senators Manchin and Sinema to be the weak links he could exploit to split the Democrats. By doing this, though, Sen. Manchin is turning the tables. He's come out in favor of a signal piece of civil rights legislation, and inviting (or daring) the GOP to hop on the train. As stated in the closing grafs of the interview:
Manchin has met with House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, and Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in recent weeks to discuss his stance on the Senate filibuster.
Manchin called those lawmakers "very good patriots" who have informed his position on the matter.
"It's about the country," Manchin said. "It's about the fairness of the system. If the voting system in our country can't be secure and it can't be open and accessible to everybody and protected for everybody, no matter what your race, no matter what preference, you have -- you have not only a right but a responsibility to vote and we shouldn't make it difficult for you."
There's an unspoken threat dangling at the end. "It's about the country". Will Sen. Manchin, if all avenues are exhausted, do what's good and necessary for the country (and the prospects of his party)? That's the $64,000 question. Stay tuned.