The Russia-US reset

When Barack Obama came into office, he famously wanted a "reset" of relations between the US and Russia. The problem was, of course, that what Russia wanted was to be regarded as a co-equal superpower to the US. It wasn't then, and isn't now. Russia is a mafia state with nuclear weapons. And, being such, it turned to the only weapons it could use to advance its delusions of power: subversion and subterfuge. 

Russia reached the height of its subversion campaign in 2016. Brexit was a dry run for the big prize: affecting the 2016 US presidential election. And for the entire duration of the Trump regime, it enjoyed immunity for its actions from the so-called president it helped to install. It assassinated opponents in other countries. It put bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan. It continued its war with Ukraine. It did all these things without repercussions. 

As you can see from the readout, that time has passed. President Joe Biden famously told Russian president Vladimir Putin that he had no soul. Putin laughed and said "We understand each other." I don't think he's laughing any longer.

The United States is now ready to assume the leadership of the West and its allies that Donald Trump so traitorously relinquished for four years. And for all his bravado, Putin is quaking in his boots. He quickly acceded to an extension of the New START arms control treaty. Now, obviously, this is in both countries' interests. But the fact of the matter is that Russia needs this treaty to avoid a ruinous arms race with the US. The arms race is what broke the Soviet Union. Russia's economy is just as fragile. Far from being the economic superpower that the US, the EU, and China are, Russia is a second or third rung power, dependent on carbon exports which have been hit both by COVID and the expansion of green energy. The only thing keeping Russia at the table is its nuclear stockpile. 

I don't expect Pres. Biden to focus his attention on Russia right away. He has other things to get under control, from a raging pandemic to right-wing insurrection. But on Russia, Democrats and Republicans are mostly joined in opposing Putin's aggrandizement. The July 4 Caucus isn't large enough to scupper Congressional action against Putin. And I expect Pres. Biden's Treasury Department to enforce the sanctions already passed—and ignored—during the Trump regime.

There is a reset in US-Russia relations. And this time, no one is looking into anyone else's eyes.