Our Electoral Work Isn't Done

We have quite a few elections coming up after the January runoff elections this year, and the midterms are in 2022.

Here I will be going over the critical races for 2021, who the candidates are, and why the races are important.

Local Elections

Many cities and counties across the country are having elections this year to determine critical municipal and county positions such as mayor, county attorney, sheriff, county commissioner, city council member, and other local positions.

Because of the level of detail needed, I will give cities and counties separate pieces.

Keep in mind that these positions and titles vary across the country. For example, the five boroughs in New York City (Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island) function a lot like counties do everywhere else. Instead of counties, Louisiana has parishes, but they are functionally the same as counties.

In New York City, all five borough president positions are up for grabs, along with the Manhattan DA’s office, plus the public advocate, the mayor, and comptroller, and most of the New York City Council. With the notable exception of Staten Island, most of these positions are guaranteed to go blue.

In another piece, I will go over who is running for what positions in New York City.

Meanwhile, Boston mayor Marty Walsh just got selected to be President-elect Biden’s labor secretary. That means Boston’s mayoral office is up for grabs this year without an incumbent. Right now, two former city council members—both of whom served as council president—are running.

Other major cities that are having mayoral races this year include Fort Worth, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Seattle, Washington; Omaha, Nebraska; Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio; and San Antonio, Texas.

Minneapolis is having a mayoral race with all of the city council members up for election as well. So is Saint Paul.

I am confident that my mayor, Mayor Melvin Carter III of Saint Paul, will easily win reelection. Not only did he win in the first round of a ranked-choice voting system, but he also has no realistic challengers and is very popular with the right people in Saint Paul.

By contrast, I am not sure what the outcome will be in Minneapolis. Mayor Jacob Frey may have earned a lot of animosity over the murder of George Floyd and the subsequent unrest, but so has the entire Minneapolis City Council, the Minneapolis Police Department, and Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman. My prediction is that the outcome of the Minneapolis municipal races will largely depend on who takes the fall for how badly things went in Minneapolis last summer.

Statewide and State Legislative Races

Two states are having critical elections this year. Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey is running for reelection this year, and the entire state legislature will be up for reelection this year as well. I will give a Situation Report on New Jersey later, but suffice to say, I am confident that Democrats will maintain their trifecta.

The more interesting (and thus worrisome) area is Virginia. Democrats currently have a trifecta, but it is a fairly thin one. Moreover, because Virginia governors are not allowed to serve consecutive terms, Governor Ralph Northam has to step down. Multiple Democrats are running to become Virginia’s next governor. Three candidates stand out the most: former Governor Terry McAuliffe, Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy, and State Senator Jennifer McClellan. All three of them are highly experienced and qualified candidates. Any of them could do the job.

I am excluding Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax (he has two credible sexual assault allegations against him) and Delegate Lee Carter (he is too far to the left and too inexperienced to be governor of Virginia).

In my view, the top three candidates the Republicans are putting up are former House Speaker Kirk Cox, State Senator Amanda Chase, and Colonel Sergio de la Peña. In my estimation, the former House Speaker is by far the most formidable.

In addition, the entire Virginia State Legislature is up for grabs as well. Democrats currently hold both chambers—but barely. Republicans need to flip six seats in the Assembly and just three seats in the Senate to gain control.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, they must be able to help down-ballot Democrats for the state legislature.

We must win these races.

Announcements

I will be introducing a new column called Andres Explains. In this column, I will write about various local and state offices around the country. Most importantly, I will tell you how you can interact with these elected officials and what you can do to get good leadership in these positions. In addition, I will be bringing back the Situation Report, where I give background information and analysis on elections happening around the country.

Stay frosty, everyone.