The China question: Two views

Incoming president Joe Biden and his national security and defense teams will have two major adversaries to confront and reset relationships with. One, of course, is Russia, which, under president Vladimir Putin, has showed itself to be as intent on biting the ankles of the United States as it ever has during Putin's time in power. But the more pressing issue is our relationship with China. 

China isn't an upstart challenging the Western liberal democratic order. China is a 5,000 year old civilization which has been at the center of world power for most of that history. What China is doing is merely reclaiming it's traditional role as a world superpower. In a purely historical sense, Europe and America are the upstarts impinging upon the Middle Kingdom. No, I'm not sanguine about China's new role; this isn't a Sinophile piece. But a bit of historical knowledge goes a long way to analyze what's happening now.

Yesterday I came across two articles which set out differing views on the relative powers of the entities involves: China, the US, and the EU.

Juan Cole, in the deliciously titled "How incompetent Boob Trump took down America and launched the Chinese Century", is not very sanguine:

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The twentieth century was dubbed “the American Century” in 1941 by Time magazine publisher Henry Luce. Luce hoped that Americans would abandon their isolationism and seek international allies, joining against the Axis in WW II. It was then more wishful thinking on his part than reality, but his wish arguably came true.

It seems increasingly clear that the 21st century will be the Chinese century. And, China is going to get there sooner thanks to a new isolationism and a paroxysm of ignorant reality-denial for which Donald J. Trump has been the cheerleader and chief implementation officer.

The BBC reports that a British think tank predicts that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in 2028 instead of 2033, as a result of its deft handling of the pandemic and as a result of outgoing president Trump’s monumental screw-up, the largest public health disaster in American history.

By the way, the report of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is using more scientific means to come to the same conclusion that I did earlier this year. On October 19, I asked, Will historians look back at Trump’s disastrous Pandemic Response as the Moment Beijing Overtook the US?

The fact is that the cards are stacked against the West. America is drowning in COVID, and Europe is also breaking records in regards to COVID infections. Meanwhile, China, where the virus was first detected, acted in the way only an authoritarian state can: It imposed stringent restrictions on its population, developed a vaccine in the same amount of time as the liberal West, and, when needed, punished those who dared raise questions. Painting China as a vibrant society drilled into obedience about ready to overtake the decadent West has been a staple of prognostications for most of this century. Considering how well China has weathered the plague compared to its Western rivals, it's a persuasive argument. (However, of course, while China claims it had only around 4,000 deaths from COVID, because it is a totalitarian state, one has to take those figures with a grain of salt. Or a kilo.)

However, Gideon Rachman, writing for Financial Times, has a contrary view:

China’s relative success in handling the pandemic has also handed Mr Xi a propaganda bonus — both at home and abroad. China looks more advanced, more organised and better able to look after its citizens. But there is a catch. The increased global prestige that China might have expected to enjoy as a result has not shown up in international polls. On the contrary, a recent survey of 14 countries for the Pew Research Center showed that in nine of them — including the UK, Germany and South Korea — negative views of China have reached their highest levels in more than a decade. Latest coronavirus news. 

This slump in Chinese soft power suggests that people in the countries polled are more impressed by the fact that the virus originated in China, than by Beijing’s subsequent success in stopping its spread. China’s aggressive response to any hint of international criticism — through its so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy — has also probably been counter-productive.

The only thing an observer of geopolitics can count on is that his or her predictions will probably be wrong. No state operates within a vacuum. China had a choice: expanding its soft power, or showing the dragon. In 2020, it has mostly chosen the latter. This choice has American allies yearning for January 20, 2021, when the Biden Administration takes over, and restores traditional American statecraft and alliances. Yes, China is relatively well-placed compared to the West as of this writing. But it's not leagues ahead. Brexit is done, so the European Union will be able to turn its attention to its own house. And the United States' four-year flirtation with imbecilic fascism has been scuppered. Both the US and EU can rebuild a coalition to counter China.

But, remember, international relations, at their best, should never be zero sum. Also in the Financial Times, there's this:

The EU and China are close to reaching a long-awaited business investment deal as Brussels seeks to level the playing field for European companies operating in the Chinese market. 

During a meeting with national ambassadors in Brussels on Monday, the European Commission reported progress on talks with Beijing, including on the core remaining issue of workers’ rights in China. No objections were raised and a formal announcement by the commission that the deal has been reached is expected this week, according to EU diplomats.

“The commission reported on recent positive developments in the negotiations with China including on labour standards,” said one EU diplomat. “Ambassadors broadly welcomed the latest progress in the EU-China talks.”

“The [European] Council presidency concluded at the end of the meeting that no delegation had raised a stop sign and that the way for a political endorsement was thus cleared,” the diplomat added.

The EU, which has been racing to meet an end of year deadline for the deal, has seen the talks as a core part of its strategy for managing increasingly tense trade relations with China, which it has identified as an “economic competitor” and a “systemic rival”.

Every power wants something. Also, every power will trade and give up something to get something. A new Biden Administration will want to check China's military ambitions. But it will also want to strike agreements with a power it can't ignore, and can't wish away. The problem with Donald Trump's regime in its so-called "handling" of China was that it thought China was a banana republic, and had more to lose than the US. Ask farmers how that worked out. Trump, convinced of America's supremacy, and infected by his inherent racism, thought he could bully China. All he did was weaken America's position, and that of its allies.

What Joe Biden's assumption of power promises more than anything else is stability. China will know what when America speaks, it won't change its mind the following day. And American allies will again be able to depend upon US commitments. Geopolitics don't work well amid chaos. The incoming Biden Administration promises a return of predictability, where all three major powers—the US, the EU, and China—know the rules and expectations, and can proceed accordingly. After four years of disarray, that's welcome news.

Maybe this won't be the "Chinese Century". Maybe it'll be the century when blinkered humanity finally realizes that life on earth trumps (no pun intended) national boundaries. One can only hope.