Archive

Show more
Labels
Posted by

Biden Is Not a Problem to Be Solved, But the Primary Calendar Is


I want to get one idea out of everyone’s heads, a foolish idea that seems to have cropped up in the minds of everyone from Never Trump Conservatives to Bernie Bros.

President Biden not running for reelection in 2024.

For starters, we have midterms coming up soon, and I will be posting down below several senatorial and gubernatorial races that are essential for Democrats to win this fall.

As always, make sure to spread the word about these races and candidates. In many ways, they are the last lines of defense.

On to some debunking.

Yes, Biden’s Approval Ratings Are Low

I will acknowledge reality before anyone screams at me.

President Biden’s approval ratings are at an all-time low, largely in part because his approval ratings among Democrats has dropped precipitously. Not helping matters is the fact that we have saboteurs inside the Democratic Party who do everything through their voting records to weaken President Biden or who are prepared to blow up painfully crafted legislation because of some small piece they don’t like.

As much responsibility as the Squad and the rest of the far left have for this state of affairs in Congress, the way some moderate Democrats have responded to their antics has sometimes been just as destructive. For example, Representative Josh Gottheimer of the New Jersey 5th Congressional District has a habit of not only making some cringeworthy comments (comments that I agree with in substance but I don’t like that he said them out loud), but he helped to lead an effort to blow up a deal with Senator Manchin because he is determined to reinstate the SALT deduction—which would be a tax cut for his constituents.

Representative Gottheimer is not the only moderate Democrat in the House whose fighting with the Squad has caused no shortage of headaches for President Biden and Vice President Harris.

Let’s not forget that Senators Sinema, Manchin, Sanders, and Warren have been a source of considerable headaches. Though to give credit where it is due, Senator Manchin has helped to come through recently. 

Another source of the president’s low approval ratings is global inflation. Though gas prices are going down, they are still quite high, as are grocery bills. That being said, there is not a whole lot that can be done about inflation right now thanks to the fact this is a global problem caused by COVID-19 and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, I would encourage President Biden to lower barriers to trade and, especially, immigration. Letting in more immigrants will go a long way toward alleviating the labor shortage.

But a factor that cannot be ignored is a media industrial complex that thrives on chaos, dysfunction, and misery. Ergo, the media has an incentive to make things look worse so that people engage more out of fear. “If it bleeds, it leads” is a saying for a reason, and this would be true no matter which Democrat were in office or on the ballot. “Dems in disarray” makes people more afraid and thus more likely to give the media attention and money.

Trump was great for the media, and he could not have risen without the rise of the media coverage he got. Clearly the press has an interest in returning to the horrific days of the Trump presidency—again—no matter who the Democrat in question is.

Biden Not Running for a Second Term Is a Terrible Idea

First and foremost, Democrats would be giving up the advantage of incumbency, which even in this hyper-partisan age can be a potent insulator. We need every advantage we can get.

Also, I will point out that Biden stepping down means that Democrats will descend into an even more brutal civil war than 2020 or even 2016, something that cannot be afforded right now.

No Democrat, not even Vice President Kamala Harris (whom I want to be the next president), other than President Biden can keep the Democratic Party together without it falling apart. Keep in mind that as much as I respect President Biden, I know he won the primary largely because he was the candidate most primary voters could agree on without killing each other.

For anyone pulling inspiration from 1968, I will remind people that the ferocious infighting inside the Democratic Party at that time, thanks in large part to political realignments and divisions over the Vietnam War, helped elect Richard Nixon as president—and Democrats would win the presidency only once for the next 25 years.

Any media figure who is calling for a fought-out primary wants a street fight, not a debate.

Another factor that must be considered is that calling for President Biden to step down and for a street fight of a primary is showing profound disrespect to the people who played perhaps the most essential role in saving the American Republic.

Black voters.

I know that his polling among them has dropped dangerously, but they are still his most loyal supporters.

The next time someone says that President Biden should not run again, ask them if they have consulted Black voters or any voters who are not downwardly mobile White failchildern.

Supposed Alternatives

Both Senators Sanders and Warren are too toxic to run for president, and both have mountains of problems and few legislative accomplishments. Neither one can run again.

As a vice presidential candidate, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is not a bad candidate, but his problems with Black voters are too much for him to be considered for president proper.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker, and Colorado Governor Jared Polis have all been put forward as possible alternatives to President Biden and Vice President Harris. While all of these leaders are quite accomplished and have my deep respect, keep in mind that they were able accomplish what they did because they all have at least a reliable blue trifecta to work with, it not much more. Moreover, none have indicated they are interested in challenging President Biden, and Governor Newsom has made it clear that he is planning to support Vice President Harris for president when the time comes. Moreover, I can’t think of any other blue-state governor who has enough political capital or even stateside support to run for president against an incumbent of their own party.

Let’s also not forget that former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was floated as an alternative to President Biden. Skilled at the technical and administrative aspects of governing as he was, his ethical lapses and sexual harassment of his subordinates would have made him a major liability from day one. So take that as you will.

What I Support

I support Iowa not being the first state in the presidential primaries.

There are plenty of states where one can make a solid case for having the honor of being the first state, such as Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

I would support having Nevada be the first state because Democrats need to do better with Hispanic and Asian American voters and Nevada has a growing population of both, especially around Las Vegas. Making Nevada first would test how candidates do with Hispanic voters in the Southwest and increasingly Asian American voters.

Another good option would be Georgia. Not only is the state making painfully slow progress toward becoming blue, but testing how a candidate would fare in Georgia would be an excellent way to assess how a candidate performs with all types of Black voters (plus a large number of other voters of color), not to mention largely White suburbs.

Put it another way, Georgia and Nevada would be excellent tests of a candidate’s metropolitan strategy of driving up the margins in cities, winning the suburbs by a large enough margin, and keeping losses in rural areas, exurbs, and small towns under control.

Ultimately, primaries are a way to test how a candidate will do with specific voting populations and specific situations. What the early states must be able to test is to determine how well a candidate can execute a metropolitan strategy of driving up the margins in cities, winning the suburbs by a large enough margin, and keeping losses in rural/exurban areas under control.

Keep in mind that part of the reason things went so badly in Virginia in 2021 was because Democrats were not able win by a large enough margin in the core cities and suburbs while their vote share utterly collapsed in rural and exurban Virginia. In other words, the execution of the metropolitan strategy failed in Virginia and barely worked in New Jersey.

Here are the senatorial and gubernatorial candidates who need help today.

Gubernatorial candidates:

Senatorial candidates:

Stay frosty, everyone.
Labels: