You Have a Better Bad Idea Than This?

Putin’s planned takeover of Ukraine has not gone according to plan.

Even if the Ukrainian armed forces are exaggerating the casualties they are inflicting, the Russian invasion force has already suffered heavy losses. At bare minimum, the Russians have taken heavier losses in just over a week of fighting in Ukraine than the United States has taken fighting for two decades in Afghanistan. Even worse, the Russians are clearly behind schedule.

However, the conflict is far from over, and the Russians are making worrying gains in Southern Ukraine, with Kherson being the first major city in Ukraine to fall to the invaders. Other cities in Southern Ukraine, near the Crimean Peninsula and on the coast of the Black Sea, are as of writing either encircled or about to be cut off by Russian forces.

In a recent poll, most Americans support an embargo on Russian oil, an idea I wholeheartedly support. Disabling Putin’s war machine means crippling its economy.

Worryingly, however, most Americans also support instituting a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I get the impression that most Americans think this will only mean no planes flying in Ukrainian airspace. What it actually means is shooting down any aircraft that come into that space.

That means shooting down Russian aircraft in combat.

Normally, I would have supported this idea, but Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. A nuclear exchange means it’s game over for human civilization, including Ukraine.

Fundamentally, NATO has three options when it comes to dealing with Putin’s attempt to rebuild the old Russian Empire.

• Appease Putin (which means letting Putin get whatever he wants, in this case taking over Ukraine). This will only empower Putin to take more aggressive actions on the world stage, as well as inspire other conquerors like Chinese President Xi Jinping to take action. In addition, Putin will feel even more emboldened to support the worst elements in the Free World. In this case, the Free World ceases to exist.
• Sanction the Russian economy back to the Stone Age while supporting the forces fighting in Ukraine, but with no NATO forces engaging. This option, in effect, means using Ukrainian lives to grind down Putin’s machine in a protracted war in Ukraine while crippling his economy with sanctions, ergo stopping his ability to wage war. This option has plenty of downsides, mainly that the people of Ukraine are going to experience some very tough times ahead and many innocent people are going to be displaced or end up murdered. In addition, if Putin gets frustrated enough, there is a chance he will use chemical, biological, or even tactical nuclear weapons inside Ukraine.
• NATO goes to war with Russia. Considering how poorly the Russian armed forces have performed against Ukraine so far, I am confident that NATO would rapidly defeat the Russians in the field. However, Putin has nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere. These weapons make the atomic bombs that leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like mere firecrackers. A nuclear exchange means the end of human civilization and an extinction-level event that would make previous mass extinctions look like a fire drill.

As you can see, not one of these options is good. All three options involve Ukrainians dying.

There are only bad options. It’s about picking the best bad one.

The Case for Option 2: Sanction the Russian Economy

History shows what happens when you appease tyrants. Exhibit A would be the rise of the Third Reich and the rest of the Axis powers right before World War II. This war killed approximately sixty million people.

Moreover, recent history shows that trying to appease aggression in the United States does not work well either. Donald Trump is exhibit A.

However, starting a war with a nuclear-armed Russia would end human civilization as we know it. The closest calls during the Cold War did not happen because of actual decisions by policymakers but because of unintended close calls. See the Cuban Missile Crisis for an example of this. The implications are that in the fog of war, someone higher up may panic and launch a nuclear attack because they think the other side has launched an attack. Add in Putin’s emotional state because his plans are going wrong, and the chances that a shooting war with Russia escalates to a nuclear exchange go up even more. Putin’s actions and words show he is not a stupid person by any means, but his biggest gamble has so far gone poorly. He is cornered and desperate—with nuclear weapons.

The option that neither lets Putin get away with his invasion nor ends human civilization is to destroy the Russian economy and bog down the Russian military inside Ukraine, all the while Russia pours money and resources inside Ukraine it can’t afford. Keep in mind the United States successfully used this strategy in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union (though with some costs down the line).

You have a better bad idea than this?