The mother of all strategic failures

When McDonald's opened its first store in Moscow, it was above-the-fold news here in the US for days. The emblematic symbol of American capitalism had set up shop in the world's first communist state. It presaged the sea changes which were already occurring.

Yesterday, McDonald's suspended all operations in Russia due to its war against Ukraine. It closed all 850 stores, although it will continue to pay salaries for its Russian staff. Just like McDonald's was the symbol for the thawing of Russia, now it's a symbol for it closing in on itself again.

McDonald's actions are just the latest in a slew from Western nations and corporations aimed at exacting consequences against Vladimir Putin for his war. But it goes deeper than that.

When the US went into Iraq in 2003, it came to be seen as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of recent decades. US prestige took a huge hit. President Barack Obama spent a good portion of his time in office fixing that damage—only for his successor Donald Trump to take America to levels of unpopularity around the world not seen since Vietnam, another geopolitical catastrophe.

However, the US survived Iraq, just as it survived Vietnam. Why? Because despite China's airs, the US is still the world's only true superpower. It can make mistakes—huge, destructive errors—which would humble other nations, and escape relatively unscathed. A nation of America's power has never been seen in human history. Militarily, economically, and culturally, the US is still the world's only indispensable nation. I'm not writing this to brag, but to explain how massive errors on the order of Iraq can occur and yet the US suffers no real geopolitical repercussions, at least not ones which can't be remedied.

Russia is learning that it's not on the same playing field as the United States. A brushfire war in Syria involving a few thousand Russian soldiers, against an enemy with no real weapons to fight back? Piece of cake. Ukraine is not Syria. Ukraine is not even Afghanistan. Ukraine is a European state with a European army, armed by the West. Too many on our side bought into the Russian propaganda of the might of its army. Instead, as the UK defense chief said on Sunday:

“Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was 10 days ago," he added.

Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. You’ve also seen basic failures in terms of maintenance and their kit failing," he elaborated before cautioning, "I think there is a real risk because Russia is struggling with its objectives on the ground in Ukraine - and we’ve seen from Russia’s previous actions in Syria and in Chechnya - where it will turn up the violence, it will lead to more indiscriminate killing and more indiscriminate destruction."

Russia's army is a Potemkin army. The reasons for this are various, but I think corruption lies at the root of it. Where did all the rubles spent to modernize it go? Rebuilding Russia's military has been a chief fetish for Putin. He wanted to make Russia feared again. Instead, this sad debacle has shown that Russia remains a kleptocratic state where wealth goes to the few, including Putin, and the nation's needs wither on the vine. One can only assume that the military modernization was made moot by various middlemen taking their cut, equipping the military with substandard equipment while they make off with millions.

Aside from the impact of global sanctions, this also doesn't bode well for Putin's position, and whether he continues to breathe:

According to a military expert attached to the French Ministry for the Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin may succeed in taking over Ukraine but he has lost the long-term war and could be ripe to be deposed after his latest military adventure.

In an essay for War on the Rocks, flagged by the Bulkwark's Jonathan Last, Jean-Baptiste Jeangene Vilmer, a director of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM), made the case that Putin made a strategic mistake invading Ukraine and has already lost in some ways.

According to Vilmer, "No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his 'friends.'"

This war has made no sense from the view of Russia's strategic interests. Ukraine is no military threat to it. But it is a threat to Putin's conception of himself as a warlord surrounded by servile client states. Its imperfect democracy is a threat to his grip on Russian power. But those are not strategic interests. Those don't impact the Russian state. They only impact Putin's position. He has fully immersed himself in the notion that l'etat c'est moi. It wasn't true of Ancien Régime France, as the Bourbons were to find out, and it's not true of Russia. Reliance on one personality inevitably leads to a weakening of state institutions; and when that one man makes a monumental blunder, or passes away, the damage exponentially increases. Much like Donald Trump not descending the escalator, Putin could have continued to rake in oil and gas money and planned for the succession. Instead:

"The logical conclusion of all this is that the resentment and hostility and fear that Putin generates within the Russian elite constitutes a real risk for his maintenance in power in the coming weeks, months, and years," he explained. "The probability of a palace coup or an oligarchic revolt is substantial. There may come a point where it appears to the population and the economic, military, and security elite, including within the Kremlin, that the only way to save Russia is to get rid of Putin."

I've often written that hubris is the one sin which the gods will always punish with the direst of penalties. Because Putin saw himself and his country as being grander than they actually are, we're going to see that acted out in spades. As always, it didn't have to be like this.