Monday open thread: At some point, we need to let go of 2016

Well, here we go again.

Piece of shit Donald Trump had another of his Bund rallies this past weekend. And he again threatened what fascist dystopia he would incarnate if he's ushered back into office.

This, of course, has gotten many of our fellows in a tizzy. OH MY GOD HE'S GOING TO TOTALLY WIN IN 2024 AND THERE'S NOTHING WE CAN ABOUT IT!! Add to that Twitter accounts saying DEMOCRATS CONTROL EVERYTHING AND HAVE DONE NOTHING WITH THAT POWER, SO PEOPLE WON'T COME OUT TO VOTE!!

Sigh.

I am more than cognizant that 2016 was... special. As our own Cletus says, it was the Mother of All Black Swan Events. (OK, he's never used those words, but I'm condensing.) But that's just it: 2016 was such an outlier that, while it bears studying, is not indicative of future happenings.

Here's where I see things.

Trump is in a world of trouble, legally. The January 6th committee is making a bee-line to build a criminal case against him. The supposedly feckless Merrick Garland has said, just this past week, that no one is off limits in the Department of Justice's investigation into the insurrection. New York Attorney General Leticia James is most likely to destroy his business "empire". And then we have the Fulton County investigation. (I don't include the Manhattan DA's probe into Trump because if there's something you can always count on is that New York City politics will disappoint you bitterly.)

Anno Domini MMXVI sent us all for a loop. It wasn't pretty. And it came from both right and left. Western civilization at around that time had a complete and utter meltdown. Trump was our version of that manifestation, but you saw it all over the purviews of the West.

But, as the poet sang: Time keeps on ticking, into the future. 

The thing about black swan events is that they don't repeat. Or, at least, not in the same way. Black swan events are, by their nature, chaotic and unpredictable. And things may, in fact, return to an equilibrium of sanity. 

Trump in 2024 won't be Trump in 2016. He's now a known commodity. He lost the popular vote in 2016 by three million. In 2020 by seven million. There's a progression there.

But, Joe Biden's numbers are tanking!! No, they're not. The country has taken notice of his leadership during the Russo-Ukraine War, and his numbers are going up. The one thing this country loves is a war president. Just look at George W. Bush. And if President Biden can keep us out of war, while achieving all of America's objectives by other means? That will matter.

We have to be informed by the past, but not locked into it. We have to learn from the past, while not being slaves to it. We need to forge new paths which acknowledge the past, but aren't beholden to it. Otherwise, it will repeat.

It's better than even odds that Trump will be too mired in legal problems to mount a 2024 challenge. But if he isn't? Then we fight. That's all we can do. And that's enough.

This is your open thread.