What We Must Do to Defeat the GOP
But the GOP is still a serious threat, even as it is cut off from multiple sources of campaign cash as a result of supporting a terrorist attack.
Even as we rightfully celebrate the victory of Senators Jon Ossoff and Reverend Raphael Warnock, along with the inauguration of President Biden and Vice President Harris, it is critical to remember that Democrats performed badly in most of the down-ballot races in 2020.
Ergo, Democrats need to have a clear understanding of how to defeat Republicans up and down the ballot in 2021 and 2022. I have a few ideas for them to be successful.
Remember the Terrorist Attack on the Capitol
The attack that occurred on January 6, 2021, has already damaged the GOP’s reputation in critical locations, such as Orange County in California.Continue to frame the attack that occurred on January 6 as a terrorist attack. The people who attacked the Capitol Complex had clear goals staging a coup via killing everyone in line to succeed the president, including former Vice President Mike Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Any Republican who voted not to impeach, no matter how they justified their vote, is an accomplice in terrorism.
My fellow Democrats, ensure that the public never forgets what happened on January 6, 2021. Every attack ad needs to feature the MAGA mob in some capacity, with considerations of the election in question of course.
The Capitol Hill Police (the ones not aiding and abetting terrorism) faced serious danger from the MAGA mob. One officer was nearly crushed to death. Another officer was beaten with a pole carrying a “Thin Blue Line” flag as people chanted, “Kill him with his gun!”
These terrorists clearly have no respect for law enforcement despite what they say publicly because the moment a cop gets in their way, they will not hesitate to use deadly force.
Officer Brian D. Sicknick is exhibit A, beaten to death by the MAGA horde.
Republicans are OK with cop killers.
This is because at heart, they are all cop killers.
Make sure to use that term whenever possible—it packs quite an emotional punch. If it is safe for you to do so, call any Republican you find a cop killer.
These are the two terms that must be in every attack ad (when appropriate) that Democrats use: terrorist and cop killer.
Painting each and every Republican running for office with these two terms consistently will erode their support in the suburbs even further.
Recruit More Women and Candidates of Color
Republicans gained a lot of ground in the down-ballot races (but especially the House) in part because of how many women they ran and how much ground they gained in critical spots with Asian American and Latino voters.One way to inspire more turnout among this base is to run more women and people of color, especially in the west, southwest, and Deep South.
Remember, a black reverend flipped a Georgia Senate seat blue and carried a white Jewish man across the finish line in the same area.
Part of the reason Democrats gained so much ground in 2018 was because they ran so many women, people of color, and LGBT people in the right places. The record-high turnout by black voters all over the country were essential to flipping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. Add Arizona to that list regarding Latino and Native American voters.
Part of the reason Ossoff, the weaker candidate, defeated a well-entrenched incumbent was because he adjusted his strategy to turn out black voters across the state. Because Warnock is a reverend at the same church where Dr. King preached, he did not have the same difficulty of turning out black voters that Ossoff, a white Jewish man, would have on his own.
The runoff elections in Georgia carry two critical lessons. First, make sure to target the right people in your strategies. Second, and more importantly, run candidates who will be able to mobilize Democratic voters.
This means running more women, candidates of color, and LGBT candidates.
Resume In-Person Campaign Operations
Part of the reason Democrats did so badly in the down-ballot races was because they suspended in-person operations, such as door knocking and in-person events, because they were trying to be responsible and safe.Commendable as this was, it was a stupid thing to do in the face of an enemy with no such compunctions.
Although safety measures are absolutely necessary, especially because COVID-19 is killing more than three thousand Americans a day right now, in-person operations must resume in some limited way. A measure I recommend is asking Stacey Abrams how she helped keep both voters and campaign staff safe.
Encourage the GOP Civil War as Much as Possible
Part of the reason both Loeffler and Perdue lost is because of infighting inside the GOP that happened after Trump lost Georgia (and the presidency). Many of Trump’s own people are loyal to Trump and Trump alone. Many of them lashed out at statewide Republican officials inside Georgia, such as Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.I nearly overdosed on schadenfreude.
More importantly, with Trump off the ballot and his base enraged at the GOP for their so-called betrayal, turnout in North Georgia and other Trump-supporting parts of the state plummeted.
Let’s not forget that because of his intense narcissism, Trump can only think of how much people are loyal to him and him alone, not to any broader group or cause in any sense. As a result, I suspect he intentionally sabotaged both Perdue and Loeffler.
To be fair, both Loeffler and Perdue made some serious mistakes themselves. Both of them blatantly profited off the pandemic and had serious financial conflicts of interest. In addition, Loeffler had a nasty fight with fellow Republican Representative Doug Collins before the runoff, whose base was in Northern Georgia, while she was running for Senate. This may have damaged her by causing turnout to drop where she could least afford it.
There are future races where this could play out favorably. Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s seat is up for reelection in 2022, and there are rumors that Ivanka Trump is gearing up to challenge him in the primary. From where I am standing, Ivanka is an easier opponent to defeat than Senator Rubio, though both will be formidable opponents in Florida.
The lesson here is to manipulate events so that Trump’s base will not turn out or at least to encourage Republicans to waste their political capital on each so they are exhausted by a brutal primary and thus less effective for the general election.
Some Tips on How to Handle Primaries
A key lesson I learned in 2018 and 2020 is that it is good to have vigorous primaries in which candidates debate each other. I believe the Democratic primary, as ugly as it was, helped strengthen President Biden as a candidate. A similar thing happened during the 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial race.The point is that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) of course should actively recruit candidates for vital races across the country, but when there are two or more active candidates running for an office, they should not push the scales toward one candidate or the other. This may not only alienate critical players on the ground, but they also have at times demonstrated quite poor judgment when it comes to picking candidates.
I still remember Cunningham being unable to keep it in his pants and the huge polling miss in Maine.
Important as rigorous primaries are, it is even more vital that wounds from the primaries are healed. Part of what cost the GOP in deep-red Louisiana and Kentucky during those states’ 2019 gubernatorial races was that wounds from the primary carried over to the general.
To help with this, I suggest that some of the supporters of a Democrat who wins a primary, especially in a competitive race, somehow indulge the people who lost. Personally, I recommend a steakhouse when it’s safe—but come up with something to patch up wounds.
Upgrade Digital Operations
This one needs to be done urgently, especially in the internet age.During much of 2020, Democrats were outspent on social media. This is unacceptable.
This would be a good time to recruit people with an expertise in social media. Silicon Valley is a good place to look.
A Word on Fundraising
One thing that Democrats did right in 2020 was fundraising.It is both ethical and pragmatic to ensure that campaign staff have a living wage. If you want people who are not rich to work on your campaign, they need to be able to keep food on the table while on the trail. People are entitled to compensation for their labor.
Additionally, campaign work requires long hours and little margin for error, especially in close elections. As much energy as volunteers can bring, in many cases, you need professionals who know what they are doing. Volunteers won’t show up if they decide they don’t want to that day (or can’t because of more urgent commitments). Professionals are much more reliable in this regard.
So keep up the fundraising on most levels.
State Legislative Races
Democrats need to do a much better job fundraising for state legislative races. During the 2020 cycle, these Democrats were understaffed and, more critically, severely outraised by the GOP. It does not matter if you fight like a starving dog; if your opponents fight just as hard/well and are better supported, they will more likely win.We are still learning how to launch more effective campaigns at this level. The drive and energy are there; they just need direction and effective leadership.
Moreover, because of gerrymandering and polarization, many of these races are getting harder and harder to win across much of the country.
Democrats must figure out how to break through in either the suburbs or rural areas. But big urban centers alone, while essential, are not enough.
Some Strategic Recommendations (Senate and Gubernatorial Races)
Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is up for reelection in 2022. Because of how polarized Wisconsin is and the advantages of incumbency, he will be a difficult opponent to take down. As a result, the Democrat running against him will need all the help they can get.My ideal candidate for the Badger State is someone who can make inroads into the suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties) and Green Bay. In addition, they need to keep losses in rural Wisconsin under control and drive turnout through the roof in the Madison and Milwaukee metropolitan areas.
In addition, the most Democratic governor is in Wisconsin: Governor Tony Evers. Make sure his campaign is well funded and properly staffed. The Wisconsin Republicans want that seat back and are prepared to fight like hell for it.
Keep an eye on Wisconsin, everyone.
Pennsylvania Republican Senator Pat Toomey is stepping down from his seat, and Pennsylvania Democrat Governor Tom Wolf is term limited. That means two highly critical offices in the Keystone State are up for grabs.
Both of these Democrats must be able to hold Pittsburgh and the surrounding area, keep their losses in the middle of the state under control, capitalize on Democratic gains in the suburbs around Philadelphia, and drive turnout in the hometown of Benjamin Franklin itself.
North Carolina Republican Senator Richard Burr is retiring. That means this Senate seat is up.
I know that North Carolina Democrats took a beating in 2020 because they lost both the Senate race and the presidential race. But a closer look reveals a more nuanced picture.
North Carolina Democrats won the races of both the governor and attorney general, albeit by a closer than comfortable margin. That shows that Democrats can still win statewide races if they employ the right strategy and candidate for the office.
I don’t know very much about North Carolina politics, so I have to do more research about the dynamics in that state. Regardless, the eventual candidate must be able to inspire high turnout with the state’s black population.
Democrats in Georgia have given a lot of bang for the donated bucks. Democrats not only flipped a House seat in the Atlanta suburbs, but they also flipped two Senate seats. I am smelling blood from Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp. With Stacy Abrams running for governor again in 2022, she is going to need all the help she can get. In addition, Senator Raphael Warnock will have to defend his seat this cycle as well.
The last race will be by far the most challenging. Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio might face a primary challenge from Ivanka Trump. If this happens, it could prove an opening for Democrats.
Governor Ron DeSantis, whose incompetence has cost Floridians dearly, is up for reelection. Any Democrat would do a better job than he would.
Florida, however, has proven quite a challenge for Democrats, to put it mildly. The only statewide office they hold is agriculture commissioner. But with new leadership at the helm, they might be able to claw their way back.
To win statewide in Florida, the eventual nominees must be fluent in Spanish, have an excellent relationship with the state’s various Latino and Black populations, gain ground in the suburbs around the Miami-Dade area, Jacksonville, and other major cities in Florida, and keep their losses in rural Florida under control.
But considering how badly things have been going for Democrats in Florida (for quite some time as well), I am reluctant to invest more time and money. However, Florida is the third-most-populated state in the country, so writing off the entire state would be foolish.
To hold the Senate, Democrats must not only expand their map but defend some tough areas as well. The Senate seats in Nevada and New Hampshire must hold. But the top targets for sure will be Arizona and Georgia. Both Captain Mark Kelly and Reverend Raphael Warnock will need all the help they can get.
When I am discussing steak and ice cream below, steak is what the primary focus should be, while ice cream is a luxury. I’m paraphrasing from Luke Cage.
In terms of gubernatorial races, the steak is in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. I am confident that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer will prevail. The ice cream is the gubernatorial races in Iowa, Ohio, and Florida—plus every other red state where, at the moment, it looks as though we have no chance of winning.
Meanwhile in the Senate, the steak is Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. The ice cream is Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.
Some Advice on House Seats and State Legislatures
Because the census data has yet to be released, we don’t know what the borders for the House and state legislative races will look like.That being said, Democrats are going to have a tough road in this area. Democrats have a fairly tenuous grip on the House, and they are doing very badly in state legislatures.
Start looking for candidates, building campaigns, and fundraising now.
If you are in a blue state or an area otherwise guaranteed to vote blue and you are able to, donate or volunteer for a House or local race that looks as though it could go blue.
Focus on these races.
Pay More Attention to Municipal and County Positions
Vice President Kamala Harris got her start as the San Francisco DA. President Joe Biden began his career as just a county executive in New Castle County.Many of our biggest stars cut their teeth at the local level.
But more importantly, many of the most consequential decisions are made at these levels of government.
For example, LA County and Orleans Parish just elected progressive county attorneys to replace regressive ones. This is a critical step to getting the people of Los Angeles and New Orleans equal protection under the law.
More importantly, ensuring that these positions are blue means that we have a ready stream of talent for higher offices like governor, senator, and even president. Same for state legislatures and other statewide positions.
Find New Ways to Identify Targets and Evaluate How Races Are Going
I was listening (1:11:09–1:15:36) to the Lincoln Project the other day, and one of them commented that their voter analytics were more accurate than most of the polling done.Although I doubt that polling will ever disappear, it is clear that the methods need drastic upgrades.
What Democrats need to do is get the smartest data people possible, figure out why their polling was so off, and figure out new ways to get reliable information on how an election is going.
Polling is going to get much more expensive if done correctly—even more incentives to fundraise.
Start Recruiting Now
To build up the maxim campaign strength possible, I would advise Democrats to start recruiting candidates—today. That way, regardless of what the House and state legislative maps look like, they can hit the ground running.There is a lot more that can be done, but these are the steps to defeat the GOP for good.
As an organization, it is beyond redemption and must be destroyed.
The war is not over yet.