The unexpected black swan

George Floyd protest, Columbus, OH, May 30, 2020, by by Becker1999, CC BY SA 2.0

Despite this piece's title, I'm not going to get too into the weeds raking Bernie Sanders's "Our Revolution".

But the events of the past week show that one can't manufacture a revolution. One can't create an organization and just will a revolution into being.

Had it not been for World War I, the Romanov dynasty would have probably lumbered on, making incremental reforms, possibly turning into a true constitutional monarchy, or had been softly replaced by a republic. There would have been no spark to light a true revolution, and Lenin would have died in exile in Switzerland. But once a spark is set, then all bets are off.

That's what happened in October 1917. It's what seems to be happening in June 2020.

The murder of George Floyd, and the mass, continuing protests that murder engendered, are the unexpected sparks. His murder was the black swan event, the unforeseeable action which triggers uncontrollable consequences.

This was a country already on the verge of explosion. Plague, economic collapse, and an uncaring government had people primed. Again, all that was needed was one last straw to send the camel tumbling.

Revolutions aren't planned. Creating an organization isn't enough. Revolutions erupt. And those who think they can control it, or are owed leadership of it, will find themselves disabused of that notion.

The George Floyd Revolution has taken all of the underlying instability in this country and given it focus. Yes, it's mostly about racial injustice. But people are in the streets because of everything else which has led up to this moment. This is a great crying out of a people sick and tired of being lied to, of living in a growing dystopia. Floyd's murder was the symbol of everything wrong with this society. It crystallized the sickness and disease eating away at it. To quote Monty Python, it really did show the violence inherent in the system, a violence meted out to keep control and dominance. And finally, people had had enough.

I'm not even going to pretend to know what comes next. But I'm at peace. I feel like Hamlet, and the readiness is all. What will come, will come, and then we have to deal with it. But as I write this, I'm at my most hopeful. It's right to fear what the vermin regime might do. But it's nowhere near as powerful as some of our more fearful friends fret it is. Their fears are legitimate; but the vermin are hemmed in. If they could have deployed troops to American cities, they would have already. Instead, they're occupying the capital, making an example of it. But all it is is an example of their brutality and ultimate weakness.

Be vigilant. Be ever watchful. But be at peace. This Republic will not die at the hands of a rat from Queens. We have to make sure of that.