The Von Pappen gambit
We take a break from current events to delve into history.
I've written before about Franz von Pappen. He was the German politician who was the front for reactionary German oligarchs in the interwar years.
He had no use for the Weimar Republic, and wanted to subvert it so that it was something akin to Viktor Orban's Hungary: A veneer of democracy, covering a fist of iron.
As the Social Democrats gained more and more votes, the oligarchs conspired as to how to seize power. And they decided on using a party on the extreme right, the National Socialists, and their leader, an Austrian parvenu named Adolf Hitler, as their vehicle.
Von Pappen and his compatriots thought they could control Hitler, bend him to their uses, much like Paul Ryan et al though they could do with Donald Trump. That they were tragically wrong is borne out by the history of the mid-20th century.
American oligarchs, thinking that Trump would be their vehicle, have discovered to their dismay that he's not controllable. Demagogues never are. They have their own power base, one of blood and soil, which doesn't respond to rarified political calculation.
Our saving grace is that Trump is an inveterate moron. He has nothing of Hitler's cunning and instinct for the cutting blow. Hitler was groomed by the German army as a political officer, and learned the cut and thrust of politics in the streets. Trump is a failed businessman, a failed game show host, a thoroughly ridiculous socialite. His ascension to the presidency was a perfect storm of bullshit which is unlikely to be repeated (although we shouldn't take that for granted). Hitler was an idiot savant with a gift for politics. Trump is just a moron pushed to the head of the line by forces he, even now, doesn't understand.
Nothing animates Trump more than the acquisition of wealth. He will do anything for it. Thus his run for the presidency. Thus his conspiracy to tilt the 2020 election to keep the presidency and avoid prison. Thus his abysmal capitulation to the Turkish sultan in regards to the Kurds, so that he can have a hotel in Istanbul. Nothing he does isn't venal.
Which brings us to our modern-day von Pappens.
The great saving grace of our society is that it has been a democratic republic for over 200 years. It hasn't been perfect. It has had fits and starts. But from the 1950s onward, it has sought to perfect the Union. It has sought to dispel the idea that this is a Union for rich, white, Protestant men. When those who weren't included in the Republic's original vision decided to kick the hornet's nest and demand inclusion, it didn't strike back with repression. It gave way. It changed. America in 2019 would be unfathomable to someone from America in 1919. And this change is irreversible. It just is, despite what the doomsayers say.
And this is reflected in our oligarchs. From the superficial—INTERRACIAL COUPLES IN TV ADS!!!—to the tangible—oil companies preparing for a carbon-free future. Our oligarchs realize that America in 2019 is not Germany in 1932. We're in a different universe.
I still say: eat the rich. But the rich know that as well, and will do everything to stave that off. And by "everything," I don't mean going all in for a fascist state. That won't work. Trump is trying it, and failing miserably. They know they need to live next to the lion, for the lion will have his way. The von Pappens are realizing that they made the wrong bet. And even if they find someone smarter next time, this round has inoculated the commonwealth against another such gambit.
The worst thing you can do is aim for a fascist takeover and fail laughably. American fascists are caricatures of idiocy. It's what will save us.