2016 was a fluke, Trump doesn't have what it takes

Our own Cletus always makes the point that what happened in 2016 was a fluke, a happenstance, a convergence of forces which was the equivalent of pulling an inside straight. It is very unlikely to be repeated. Our agencies are on guard against hostile state actors using propaganda to influence the election. The attacks which landed on Hillary Clinton don't have the same effect on Joe Biden. Donald Trump is not a cipher, but has a record to run on. And a majority of voters are aware of the threat to democracy which Trump and his MAGA Party are. In other words, if Trump is going to win, he's going to have to do it on his political nous.

Sadly for him, he has none.

Yesterday, he released his much-anticipated statement on the subject of abortion. He began the video by again crowing that he was the president who finally got Roe v. Wade overturned. Then he went on to say that abortion policy should be left up to the states.

In doing so, he angered everyone. Abortion rights activists quickly pointed out that the radical anti-abortionists surrounding him are planning to implement a national ban if they win all branches of government. And Trump will simply go along with whatever they put in front of him to sign. Meanwhile, people like Mike Pence were scathing in their judgment, saying that Trump betrayed the anti-abortion movement which put him into office. He didn't assuage those suburban women, and he upset the abortion hardliners.

This is an example of Trumpian panic. Far from being the alpha male he attempts to project, he knows that the upcoming election interference, "hush money" trial brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg will likely end in conviction. He spent all day yesterday trying to delay the trial's start next Monday. His effort to change venue was dismissed by the appellate court. Today his appeal on the gag order will also, most likely, fail. His cries of "presidential immunity", even if germane—which they are not—would be immaterial, as the crime took place before he assumed office. Trump knows he's about to go to prison, or at least be convicted and have to spend the rest of the election season fighting an appeal and the start of the Jack Smith and Fulton County prosecutions. Add to that the fact that it seems that the bond he posted for the fraud appeal is itself fraudulent, and we can but hope that he'll have that final psychotic break for which we all yearn.

This is all to say that Trump has never been a good politician. Not even a fair one. He energized people based on hate and animus. But any rabble rouser can do that. He never translated that into a governing coalition or philosophy. And the reason for that is obvious: Donald Trump has no philosophy save for doing whatever it takes to aggrandize himself. And that, friends, is bound for failure. He has loyalty to no one and nothing. He's turned on his lieutenants from his term in office, like Pence and now Lindsey Graham. One can build nothing on such a foundation. One certainly can't destroy American democracy. One can damage it, but it's made of stern stuff, and will survive, heal, and thrive after Trump has left the scene, either by prison or death. The MAGA Party he'll leave behind will fracture and break. The Right—from moderate to radical—will be bereft of an effective political vehicle. Trump taking over the Republican National Committee guarantees this.

Black swan events are just that: improbable occurrences which may happen, but are impossible to repeat. 2024 is not 2016. Trump's days are numbered.

I close this with a Twitter post highlighted by G'Burg. It's good reading.

Now is the time for courage.

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