Looking Ahead: The 2024 Political Calendar

We have 302 days to get this right.

Because on November 5th, 2024 the United States of America will once again be voting on whether we maintain our democracy in its current form or take a step closer to authoritarianism. While we can and should remain confident in the Democratic Party, we also need to understand when and how our time and talents can be maximized in the coming year. For those of us in solidly blue states, it's all about voting blue and down the ticket and figuring out what our next priority should be. For those in purple states, it's all about making sure Joe Biden wins the state as well as prominent senators and congressmen and women. For those in red states, it's about winning local elections and keeping extremists off of local city councils and school committees. Each of us has an opportunity to become involved in 2024 and an overall understanding of the political calendar is critical in helping us prioritize our work in the coming year.

January/February

The headlines for these first two months will involve the first four primary/caucus states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While Donald Trump seems poised to handily win all four, the question on the Republican side will be whether there is enough foresight for Trump's opponents to coalesce around a Trump alternative prior to March. On the Democratic side, the one humorous piece to look forward to is the strong possibility of Joe Biden winning New Hampshire, despite not being on the ballot. With New Hampshire refusing to change its primary until after South Carolina as was required by the DNC, Joe Biden officially took his name off the New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot. However, that doesn't prohibit New Hampshire Democrats from writing him in and were they to do so in large numbers, it would be a fantastic blow to Dean Phillips' vanity campaign.

March/April

March starts off with a bang on Super Tuesday when on March 5th, 16 states will have their primary or caucus. By the wee hours of March 6th, Donald Trump will likely have all but clinched the Republican nomination for president, leaving his remaining competitors in the dust. On the Democratic side, it will only be a matter of time before Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson drop out, and getting pulverized on Super Tuesday would be an ideal time to do so. It is during this time that certain states will simultaneously have their primary elections for congressional candidates. With Democrats needing to retake the House, this is a prime opportunity to identify strong House candidates in Biden-leaning districts in places like California, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. This is an ideal time to make your first donation to these candidates and to set up a recurring payment if you are financially able to do so. Additionally, it is during this time that Republicans will nominate extremist Senate candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin so it would be a great time to start supporting incumbent senators Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, and Tammy Baldwin, whom we absolutely need to re-elect to maintain control of the Senate, during this time.

May/June

The last major batch of primaries occurs during this time and offers us additional opportunities. While it will be a huge hill to climb, Democrats will learn who Joe Manchin's successor is as a result of the May 14th West Virginia primary. In June, we will learn which extremist Republican candidates will emerge to take on incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Jon Tester in Montana, two must-hold races for Democrats to maintain control of the United States Senate. This two-month window will also provide us with Democratic House nominees who can pick up seats in Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Oregon. 

July and Beyond 

With the presidential primaries and caucuses all completed by early June, the final step is for the party conventions. From July 15-18 Republicans will descend upon Milwaukee for their four-day airing of grievances while Democrats will share their hopeful and inclusive vision for America on August 19-22 in Chicago. The only real mystery around this time will be which Trump sycophant is added to the ticket as his second-in-command. On August 1st, the state of Arizona will have its Senate primary where Democrats will learn which candidate will emerge to take on independent incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema in a race that Democrats absolutely need to win to maintain control of the United States Senate. On August 20th, Florida has its primary and as a state with an abortion rights amendment likely to appear on the ballot in November, this could be an opportunity to pick off an additional 1-2 House seats in swing districts. The rest of the fall consists of three scheduled presidential debates and a vice-presidential debate but knowing how hesitant Trump has been to debate this primary season, those will very much be in question as to whether or not they actually take place.

Overall Guidance 

The 2024 election will come down to strategy. Democrats must navigate limited time and resources to play defense with an extremely harsh Senate map and must be aggressive in retaking the House, especially in areas like California and New York where there are several Republican House members currently residing in pro-Biden districts. While there is always the temptation to oust extreme Republicans like Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, or Lauren Boebert, the truth is that each of them is currently in a district or state where they will easily win re-election in 2024. Understanding the Cook Political Report's most up-to-date House and Senate races can serve as a valuable resource in determining where to offer your time and talents over the coming 10 months. Monthly contributions are always a great starting point but for those wanting to speak directly to voters, Mobilize.us provides weekly volunteer opportunities through both state parties and local candidates to call, text, canvass, and send postcards to both prospective and registered voters, especially in the critical 6 swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is work to be done all the way through Election Day for those up to the challenge.

At the end of the day, we are the hope that we seek. Each of us has an opportunity to maximize our passion for the Democratic Party through not only campaign donations and volunteering but also by utilizing our voice in the public sphere. Whether it's toughing it out on social media or simply having a conversation with your eighteen-year-old niece, we all have opportunities in our daily lives to win over one undecided or newly registered voter. If we all do our part then in just over 300 days, we can emerge with a Democratic trifecta that will give us (at least) two more years of transformational legislation that will create a better world for generations to come. The roadmap is there; it's up to us simply to plan it out and prioritize our work along the way. 

If we do that, there is nothing that can stop us in 2024.  

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