Thursday Thoughts: The Year Ahead
Here we go again.
The two words that have come to define American politics:
Election. Year.
Everything that we hold dear will be defined by what happens throughout the next 10-plus months. From the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in January to the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary to February to the March 5th Super Tuesday consisting of 16 primaries, the 2024 political calendar will come at us quick. On the Democratic side, ratfuckers like Dean Phillips will try and inflict maximum damage to the party on his scorched-earth way out the door. Combining the occasional quip from lefty grifters like Nina Turner, Tulsi Gabbard, and the Squad, our media will try their darndest to portray Democrats in disarray throughout the entire primary season by showcasing skewed polls and unhappy diners ad nauseam. Yet at the end of the day, President Joe Biden will win all 50 primaries and will undoubtedly be the Democratic nominee, much to the chagrin of the suits in desperate need of a horserace on the Democratic side.
Election. Year.
Everything that we hold dear will be defined by what happens throughout the next 10-plus months. From the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in January to the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary to February to the March 5th Super Tuesday consisting of 16 primaries, the 2024 political calendar will come at us quick. On the Democratic side, ratfuckers like Dean Phillips will try and inflict maximum damage to the party on his scorched-earth way out the door. Combining the occasional quip from lefty grifters like Nina Turner, Tulsi Gabbard, and the Squad, our media will try their darndest to portray Democrats in disarray throughout the entire primary season by showcasing skewed polls and unhappy diners ad nauseam. Yet at the end of the day, President Joe Biden will win all 50 primaries and will undoubtedly be the Democratic nominee, much to the chagrin of the suits in desperate need of a horserace on the Democratic side.
On the Republican side, the situation very much mirrors 2016 when Trump was the runaway favorite despite him being the most deplorable presidential candidate in our nation's history. Flash forward 7 years and Trump remains as popular as ever and barring a come-to-Jesus moment for the GOP, will likely be the party's 2024 nominee, even if it ends up being from a jail cell. While it sounds insane that a major political party will nominate a convicted felon to be its representative, we cannot underestimate the influence that Donald Trump has on the Republican Party. Anyone who speaks out against him is shunned and vilified. The sad truth is that someone like Chris Christie, who accurately describes Donald Trump, will never become his party's nominee. No, you must bend the knee to the aspiring autocrat to stay in the good graces of the 70 million GOP voters who are now fascist-adjacent. That's how we know that whoever Trump selects as his VP will be someone controllable, manipulable, and as uninspiring as they come.
What then does a Biden vs. Trump rematch look like?
It looks in many ways like it does in 2020. It will again come down to the 5 swing states of Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It will come down to the razor-thin Senate control with it being critical that Democrats hold Senate seats in Montana and Ohio and elect an actual Democrat in Arizona. It will come down to flipping Congressional seats in Biden districts currently being represented by Republicans, starting with a concerted effort in California and New York to retake House seats lost in 2022. It's identifying which Republican will be 2024's Lauren Boebert as someone who has become no nasty and repulsive that a Democrat in a right-leaning district now all of a sudden has a chance. And it's about capitalizing on pro-women ballot initiatives like the one in Florida that will be attempting to enshrine a woman's right to choose into the state constitution.
We know the playbook. We know the path to victory. We know that there will be noise, much of it manufactured by the media to create a closer-than-necessary final tally. We know that in the background of all this will be the looming specter of Donald Trump, of both who he is and what he is capable of win or lose. His pro-authoritarian views will continue to be expressed on the campaign trail. He will be treated with kid gloves during all media interviews and debates. Cable news will interrupt daily programming to show an empty podium with the caption 'DONALD TRUMP TO SPEAK' throughout the campaign while simultaneously ignoring a brilliant speech by President Biden. Pundits will remark how "presidential" Trump has become simply for not shitting his pants on stage. Rather than fear, the media will express a curiosity as to whether Trump, if elected, will actually do all the horrible things he says he plans on doing.
Ignore all that noise.
We know the playbook. We know the path to victory. We know that there will be noise, much of it manufactured by the media to create a closer-than-necessary final tally. We know that in the background of all this will be the looming specter of Donald Trump, of both who he is and what he is capable of win or lose. His pro-authoritarian views will continue to be expressed on the campaign trail. He will be treated with kid gloves during all media interviews and debates. Cable news will interrupt daily programming to show an empty podium with the caption 'DONALD TRUMP TO SPEAK' throughout the campaign while simultaneously ignoring a brilliant speech by President Biden. Pundits will remark how "presidential" Trump has become simply for not shitting his pants on stage. Rather than fear, the media will express a curiosity as to whether Trump, if elected, will actually do all the horrible things he says he plans on doing.
Ignore all that noise.
Focus on what you can control. Be strategic in maximizing your time and talent. If you're in a solidly blue state, identify the nearest swing state to dedicate your efforts. If you have the financial ability, pick 2-3 key congressional races and make monthly donations from now until the election. Give money to Sherrod Brown, John Tester, and Ruben Gallego. Bookmark sites like Mobilize.us that provide updated volunteer opportunities in your area. If you're still on social media, post and re-post pro-Biden and pro-Democratic messaging to help counter the right-wing propaganda that has become so dominant. Have those engaging conversations with friends and family members on the fence about voting, especially our newest crop of college students. Share with them your passion for politics. You all are the best messengers the Democratic Party has.
Lastly, breathe. Find time for self-care. In an election year, everything is amplified. Through no fault of his own, Joe Biden will misspeak in 2024. His words will be taken out of context. An alleged "Democrat" will vow not to vote for him. Ignore all that. Ignore the shock polls that come out of left field. Ignore (as best you can) the vile rhetoric coming from Republican candidates on the campaign trail. Know that there are more of us than them and that it is our form of government where one person equates to one vote that will be what defeats Donald Trump for a second time. This next year will not be easy. But if we do our job then we will return one year from now with the House and Senate under Democratic control and President Joe Biden set to serve his second four-year term in the White House all while Donald Trump heads toward the rest of his life in obscurity.
Lastly, breathe. Find time for self-care. In an election year, everything is amplified. Through no fault of his own, Joe Biden will misspeak in 2024. His words will be taken out of context. An alleged "Democrat" will vow not to vote for him. Ignore all that. Ignore the shock polls that come out of left field. Ignore (as best you can) the vile rhetoric coming from Republican candidates on the campaign trail. Know that there are more of us than them and that it is our form of government where one person equates to one vote that will be what defeats Donald Trump for a second time. This next year will not be easy. But if we do our job then we will return one year from now with the House and Senate under Democratic control and President Joe Biden set to serve his second four-year term in the White House all while Donald Trump heads toward the rest of his life in obscurity.
It's a vision worth fighting for.
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