An Analysis on the 2023 Elections

The year 2023 had quite a few elections, few more consequential than what took place on November 7.

Plenty of us here at the Bar had local and state elections with significant stakes.

While it’s true these elections were not general elections, there are still plenty of useful lessons to be learned.

What Happened?

Democratic Governor Andy Beshear defeated Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron in the Kentucky gubernatorial race by a larger margin in 2023 than in 2019. Governor Beshear was victorious as a Democrat in Kentucky because he ran a nearly flawless campaign while Daniel Cameron’s campaign made a plethora of bad decisions.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s ban on abortion of any type is dead in the water because not only did Virginia Democrats hold the Senate (although they lost a seat in the process and it’s quite a tight majority), they also flipped back the House of Delegates, with the caveat it’s the smallest majority possible. It is strange that Governor Youngkin decided to campaign on a 15-week abortion ban; it was the abortion issue that destroyed both Governor Youngkin’s political aspirations for president and his abortion goals.

Abortion rights and cannabis legalization won big in Ohio with different sets of coalitions. Abortion rights in Ohio relied quite heavily on the core urban areas in coalition with the suburbs, while cannabis was carried by urban cores (with significantly weakened support in the Suburbs) and much of rural Ohio.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Democrats solidified their hold on the state supreme court. Democratic candidate Judge Daniel D. McCaffery defeated Republican candidate Judge Carolyn Tornetta Carluccio. This candidate won by a comfortable margin of around 5 points.

In the Garden State, New Jersey Democrats expanded their legislative majorities after losing some ground in 2021.

In school board races all across the country, Moms for Liberty (an oxymoron for a name if there ever was one) candidates were consistently defeated—including, I am proud to say, in Minnesota.

Overall, the only national bright spot for Republicans was in Mississippi, where the Republican incumbent Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves won reelection against Democrat Brandon Presley, albeit by quite a slim margin for such a red state. No surprise here.

The only troubling spot for Democrats was New York City and especially Long Island. In New York City, Democrats lost a city council seat in the Bronx, though the loss was offset by a win in Brooklyn.

The real damage was done on Long Island, where Republicans won across the board.

Here in the Twin Cities, there were no real surprises except for two city council races in Minneapolis. In Ward 8, I was expecting incumbent Minneapolis City Council Member Andrea Jenkins to lose based on the fact she lost the DFL endorsement to her opponent Soren Stevenson by a significant margin. Instead, she won, though by a fairly close margin in the ranked choice voting system. As for Ward 7, longtime Council Member Lisa Goodman retired, having served since 1997. The top two candidates who ran were nonprofit leader Katie Cashman and real estate speculator Scott Graham. Based on how the Minneapolis 7th Ward tends to vote, I was expecting Scott Graham to win easily. Instead, Katie Cashman emerged victorious.

From what little I have heard, candidate quality played a big role in both races. Graham apparently alienated many voters because he was a bad landlord or due to his personality, while Council Member Jenkins was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat because she is an excellent candidate.

All of Minneapolis faced a new PAC called Minneapolis for the Many. In the three contested races in Wards 7, 8, and 12, Minneapolis for the Many won two out of three. I was right about the numbers but wrong about 8 and 7.

Regardless, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey lost control of the city council, but he still has enough allies to veto. My main prediction is gridlock, especially around public safety and the Minneapolis Police Department once the new council is sworn in.

As for my hometown, Saint Paul has elected its first all-woman city council. None of the city council races were a surprise to me.

A Word on the Election Results and President Biden’s Approval Rating

For the most part, the polling was accurate this round in terms of predicting outcomes—with one exception.

The polls underestimated the vote share of Brandon Presley in the Mississippi governor’s race.

With that being said, there does seem to be a disconnect between President Biden’s poor approval ratings and Democratic electoral performance across the country.

The idea being floated is that Democrats are performing well with highly engaged voters while struggling with voters who only turnout for presidential elections.

Although this hypothesis is not bad, it is contradicted by the 2022 midterm elections.

The Republicans had the advantage of an unpopular president, voters angry about inflation and the economy, a Democratic party reeling from losses in 2021 and divided, and the fact that in American politics, the president’s party tends to take heavy losses during midterm elections. And that’s not to mention the 2022 midterm elections were the second-highest turnout for a midterm election in US history after the 2018 midterm elections. Most importantly, Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout.

Despite all of this, Democrats on the whole fought Republicans to a draw in 2022 when Republicans had the advantages that many pundits say they will have in 2024.

If people point to the Dobbs decision, it’s still fresh more than a year later. It won’t go away in 2024.

The main Republican weaknesses of bad candidate quality, Republican dysfunction in the House bringing the country to the brink, and Trump being a drag on Republicans down ticket will not be going away. If anything, Trump’s legal troubles will only make these problems worse.

But to address the elephant in the room (no pun intended), President Biden’s approval ratings right now are a serious problem.

Right now being the key phrase.

I anticipate that the war in Gaza will no longer be on voters’ minds by the time next year rolls around, and people are starting to feel better about the US economy, albeit at a slow pace.

We need to remember that the media wants Trump back in the White House because he was so good for business the last time. We have several options to undermine the fourth estate, and the blatant things that they got wrong regarding Hamas should be used when people bring up President Biden’s age. Who keeps promoting Biden’s age? The media.

Key Lessons

Abortion and cannabis are clearly winning issues for Democrats. With how tight 2024 is going to be, it is vital that Democrats boost turnout and persuasion in any capacity possible.

That many activist organizations are working to put them on the ballot in several key swing states is a smart ploy to drive Democratic turnout and an excellent way to promote women’s rights.

Candidate quality matters, especially in tight races.

Your coalition to win with certain candidates and/or issues will look different depending on a variety of factors and conditions.

Start to pay attention to the local and state races now, people.

Later on, I will post who is competing against the Biden 18, 18 Republican candidates who hold House seats that Biden won, along with vulnerable House Democrats who need help for next year. With West Virginia Senator Democrat Joe Manchin not running again, that seat is certainly going to a Republican. We all know where the critical Senate races are. Will be posting about that later.

Stay frosty, everyone.