When you're sixty-four

Well, well, well. This new poll from the Associated Press is interesting.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans — 63% — now say they want the former president to run again, according to new polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s up slightly from the 55% who said the same in April when Trump began facing a series of criminal charges. Seven in 10 Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Trump, an uptick from the 60% who said so two months ago.

But in a crucial warning sign for the former president and his supporters, Trump faces glaring vulnerabilities heading into a general election, with many Americans strongly dug in against him. While most Republicans — 74% — say they would support him in November 2024, 53% of Americans say they would definitely not support him if he is the nominee. Another 11% say they would probably not support him in November 2024.

Let's attack each paragraph.

Sixty-three percent of Republican voters want Donald Trump back in the White House. While that's up from the previous poll in April, it's still not a great number. And the seven out of ten Republican voters who have a favorable image of Trump is also not a good number. That means there is a sizable portion of GOP voters who are not enamored of the front-runner. While this won't hurt him in the primary, it poses all sorts of questions for the general election. Will those GOP voters who don't approve of him hold their noses and vote anyway? Will they stay home? The winner of the Electoral College will be determined by the choices they make. If I were Trump, I would be worried. (You know, aside from the multiple indictments.) And, of course, the question is: How many people still describe themselves as Republicans? That will have an impact.

Now, the second paragraph.

Holy smokes. Sixty-four percent of respondents either definitely or probably would not vote for Trump under any circumstances. That number should send him screaming to the toilet, soiling himself. I know I say to take all polling with a kilo of salt. But something like this does make me take notice. In a supposedly closely-split electorate, this is as close to a body blow as one can get this far out from the general election. And these numbers will simply get worse as the trials begin. What this tells me is that the electorate isn't evenly divided. Other polling shows a close race; if these numbers are accurate, one has to wonder as to those polls' methodologies. 

Of course, one has to proffer up all the usual caveats. This is one poll, polling has taken a legitimacy hit, we're fifteen months away from the election, and so on. But add this to the Morning Consult tracking poll showing President Joe Biden with a steady lead over both Trump and Ron DeSantis, and you have an idea of the terrain.

Donald Trump is built to win and dominate the GOP primary. But as others have said, he's not built to win the general. He lost in the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, and he was shellacked in both the popular vote and the Electoral College by Pres. Biden. To borrow a phrase from a skinny guy from Chicago, if the GOP is insistent on nominating him, please proceed.

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