This Isn't Your Parents' Cold War: Why Putin in Ukraine Is Different
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| Put1 Putin Legacy, by Folsom Natural, CC BY 2.0 |
Not only has the Russian war machine taken serious damage fighting a skilled and highly motivated opponent in Ukraine and its people, Sweden and Finland, countries previously averse to joining NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), are now rushing to join thanks solely to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine.
In addition, Russia’s influence in Central Asia is falling apart, shown by Azerbaijan’s decision to escalate its attacks on Armenia over a long-disputed border region of Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan noticed that Russia would not be able to protect its ally Armenia thanks to severe Russian losses in Kharkiv.
Also keep in mind that Chinese head of state and government Xi Jinping, who is perhaps Russia’s most important ally, has not fully committed to supporting Putin’s invasion. If anything, Xi appears annoyed by how much of a mess Putin has made and how that has changed things for the Chinese Communist Party going forward.
Ukraine—the free world is (for now) backing it, albeit with questionable reliability at certain points from France and Germany.
Russia can count as its allies the Kim Dynasty in North Korea, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus, Eritrea, and Assad’s regime in Syria. In addition, it appears that Daniel Ortega, dictator of Nicaragua (I personally loathe the man for putting distant relatives of mine in mortal danger), and Nicolas Maduro, dictator of Venezuela, are supporting the Russian invasion as well.
With everything going so wrong for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is clear Putin is getting desperate and feeling cornered.
This is why Putin is starting to threaten to use nuclear weapons and order a general mobilization.
Old Soviet Doctrine
During the last Cold War, the old Soviet Union had leadership that was certainly comfortable with extreme brutality and oppression. But for the most part, it had enough sense not to seek out a full-scale war with the United States.Both sides of the Cold War thought the other side had a first-strike nuclear policy; in reality, both the United States and USSR were sensible enough not to be the first party to attack with nuclear weapons.
However, if either party thought the other one either was about to attack or had attacked with nuclear weapons, this restraint would break down immediately. That is how the Cuban missile crisis almost escalated into a full-scale nuclear war. Both sides were extremely nervous about what the other was doing and honestly thought they were about to be attacked with weapons designed to bring Armageddon.
Only shaky back channels, extremely good luck, and two heads of state with clear enough heads saved human civilization.
Now? Reports coming out of Russia paint a picture of a population thirsty for conquest and death—it’s the same with Russia’s elites.
There is much less restraint in the policy of Putin than the old Soviet leadership. As much as it staged coups, fought proxy wars, and backed brutal dictatorships (the United States did the same thing during the Cold War), the old Soviet Union knew how far it could safely go.
Putin does not have this restraint and is far more bellicose with threats of nuclear war than even the most ruthless members of the old Politburo.
But while Putin does not have the self-interested restraint that characterizes much of the old Soviet Union, Russia today does not have the industrial or economic capacity to wage a total war the way the Soviet Union did.
For all of its failures, the old Soviet Union did possess a legitimately formidable war machine throughout the Cold War. It was, in fact, in the early days able to surpass NATO, only evened out by the United States possessing the only nuclear weapons. Though as the Soviet Union stagnated, the balance shifted in favor of NATO.
The old Soviet military had a system in place to absorb millions of potential conscripts in case it needed to commit to general mobilization. Suffice to say, this system fell along with the Soviet Union in 1991. That means Putin’s mobilization order is not going to do that much good because without sufficient supplies, training, and weapons, these conscripts will just die in even larger numbers than the soldiers already sent to fight in Ukraine.
In addition, the Russian military has institutionalized cruelty at all levels and has for a long time. Hazing is still a serious problem. Keep in mind hazing in the Russian military is exceptionally vicious, and by one estimate, 44 percent of deaths inside the Russian army before the war in Ukraine were conscripts committing suicide because the abusive environment was too much for them. In addition, this helps to teach Russian military personnel that it is OK to hurt people who are more powerless than them, in addition to attempting to restore their dignity by taking it from other people.
Though when has a minor thing like the well-being of its own personnel ever been a concern to the way Russia fights its wars?
Of course, all of that is assuming it can draft millions of men into its service successfully. The Russian borders with its neighbors, especially Finland, are packed with people desperate to get out, and airline tickets have sold out in a matter of minutes.
Even though Russia does have mandatory military service for young men, this system is quite easy to dodge if you have the money, connections, or even smarts. So the current draft system is not very effective to begin with. Put it another way, Putin may not have the administrative capacity to carry out this mobilization effectively.
Putin is a dictator who gambled the house and is losing. This makes him quite dangerous.
A fine line needs to be walked here. Directly attacking Russia will lead to the end of civilization as we know it, but giving Putin what he wants now will only encourage him to use the threat of nuclear weapons as a bargaining tactic.
What Needs to Happen Now
Russia is on the ropes. Now is the time to escalate sanctions to utterly destroy the Russian economy. I want the economy to collapse so thoroughly that there is no food or medicine in Russia.The Russian filth have a lot to pay for besides their crimes in Ukraine (their aid in bringing Trump to power is honestly pretty low on that list; their war crimes in Syria, Central Africa, Georgia, and Chechnya are far worse). But I am still eager to see Russia pay for its role in unleashing four years of Trump’s presidency.
In addition, we need to keep aiding the Ukrainians. Potentially millions of people can be spared from the horrors of Putin’s schemes if his war machine is destroyed in Ukraine.
It would also be wise to help the countries of Eastern Europe, especially the Baltic region, defend themselves by selling them American weapons, equipment, and supplies. Helping Eastern Europe build up its military and economic power will pay dividends to help stop Putin.
Remember to contact your members of Congress to make sure they keep up the support for Ukraine.
Before China pulls a similar move in Taiwan to what Russia did Ukraine, we must work to arm Taiwan and the rest of our allies in the Pacific and East/Southeast Asia. I will keep insisting the United States must build a similar system in Asia that it has in Europe.
The Islamic regime in Iran is one of Russia’s most stalwart allies that is undergoing some unrest thanks to long-standing grievances around deteriorating economic conditions, corruption, and nonexistent women’s rights, all triggered by the murder by the “morality” police of a Kurdish young woman named Mahsa Amini. I think the United States must do more to actively support these young people demanding the freedom to live with dignity. In addition to being the right thing to do, it will deprive Russia of an ally in the Middle East if (and that’s a big if) the ayatollahs fall from power.
In addition, we as Democrats must take a hard look at ourselves and root out people with more loyalty toward Russians who would kill them if given the chance than the United States. If we fail to do this, we will be wiped out in the future.
The Russians have one of the two major parties on their payroll.
Stay frosty, my friends.