What cities should do moving foward
As much as I would like to go back to the time before Trump, time does not work that way. The changes and demons Trump has unleashed have left their marks on the United States and the world at large.
I have made it clear that the federal government as a bureaucracy is gravely damaged, as is Congress, especially the Senate. Even if Vice President Biden is victorious in November, the social fabric binding the United States together will still be at its breaking point. How ugly these divisions are depends on the state or part of the country you are in.For example, the urban-rural divide in Minnesota is getting worse and worse based on what I have seen inside the Minnesota House. I am not predicting it will get better anytime soon—same for other states in the Midwest such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and especially Indiana. Thanks to the fact that Chicago and the metro area around it have the bulk of the state’s population, the urban-rural divide is not as much of a problem for Illinois as it is for the surrounding states.
I can say the same thing about the Sunbelt states based on outside observations. The urban-rural divide is just as strong, though it is not the exact same as the divide in the Midwest. What it looks like largely depends on where you live.
What Must Be Done about This
Even a Biden victory in November will not slow down the divide. It was serious back when Obama was president, and Trump has only accelerated these trends. Going forward, Democrats will have to take two critical facts into consideration.First off, it is only a matter of time before the few remaining Democrats representing rural and small-town areas lose their seats. For example, it is common knowledge that once Democrat Representative Colin Peterson of the Minnesota 7th Congressional District (a largely rural district that represents Western Minnesota) either steps down or loses his seat, that seat will stay red. Any Democrat on any level representing a similar district will be facing a similar dilemma.
We saw this dynamic play out in Pennsylvania in some county elections in 2019. Democrats took control of several suburban counties around Philadelphia, some of which were held by Republicans since the American Civil War. However, these gains in the Philadelphia suburbs were offset by losses in traditional Democratic strongholds in rural Pennsylvania.
Which leads me to the second point.
In most of the country, suburbs are trending blue. Why is this? College-educated white voters are trending blue themselves, and, more importantly, the suburbs themselves are changing because more BIPOC people are moving into them.
In most of the country, suburbs are trending blue. Why is this? College-educated white voters are trending blue themselves, and, more importantly, the suburbs themselves are changing because more BIPOC people are moving into them.
What Democrats Need to Do Going Forward
The blunt fact is that the traditional coalitions that held both the Democratic and Republican parties together have fallen apart. Rural areas that were once reliably blue are trending red, and former GOP strongholds in the suburbs are trending blue.These trends have been happening for quite some time. Trump only sped things up.
It is not enough for Democrats just to run candidates in these areas on the state and federal levels. They need to start running them for county and municipal elections as well. Not only will this give Democrats desperately needed control at the county and municipal levels, it will also give them a pool of potential recruits for other offices up the chain. This is how you gain back power in the Sunbelt (Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida) and the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio). If Democrats are both really good and really lucky, South Carolina and Indiana could be added to the list of Sunbelt and Great Lakes states, respectively.
The objective of any good Democrat running for statewide office in either the Sunbelt or the Upper Midwest is to turn up sky-high in core urban areas, win the suburbs by a respectable enough margin, and keep losses in rural/exurban areas under control.
This is the formula that allowed Minnesota Democrats not only to win every statewide office in 2018, but gain control of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Of course, this formula may not work in every state. For example, the base of the Wisconsin GOP’s support is the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties) directly outside of Milwaukee. They are far more red than any set of suburbs I have ever seen. Most of the Wisconsin Democrats’ strength outside of Milwaukee is in Madison and the immediate surrounding counties (not to mention the northernmost tip of Wisconsin).
Keep in mind your state’s unique politics. No strategy will work the exact same way because every state has a unique political terrain. From a distance, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin look the same because of demographics and the 2016 election results. However, a closer look reveals some critical differences that impact how campaigning is done and what strategies will work best.
If core urban areas are going to get their needs met, they must have allies. The unfortunate fact of the matter is that big cities don’t have enough power on their own to get favorable outcomes. In these times, suburban areas of all rings are the best allies they can get.
It is not enough for Democrats just to run candidates in these areas on the state and federal levels. They need to start running them for county and municipal elections as well. Not only will this give Democrats desperately needed control at the county and municipal levels, it will also give them a pool of potential recruits for other offices up the chain. This is how you gain back power in the Sunbelt (Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida) and the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio). If Democrats are both really good and really lucky, South Carolina and Indiana could be added to the list of Sunbelt and Great Lakes states, respectively.
The objective of any good Democrat running for statewide office in either the Sunbelt or the Upper Midwest is to turn up sky-high in core urban areas, win the suburbs by a respectable enough margin, and keep losses in rural/exurban areas under control.
This is the formula that allowed Minnesota Democrats not only to win every statewide office in 2018, but gain control of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Of course, this formula may not work in every state. For example, the base of the Wisconsin GOP’s support is the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties) directly outside of Milwaukee. They are far more red than any set of suburbs I have ever seen. Most of the Wisconsin Democrats’ strength outside of Milwaukee is in Madison and the immediate surrounding counties (not to mention the northernmost tip of Wisconsin).
Keep in mind your state’s unique politics. No strategy will work the exact same way because every state has a unique political terrain. From a distance, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin look the same because of demographics and the 2016 election results. However, a closer look reveals some critical differences that impact how campaigning is done and what strategies will work best.
If core urban areas are going to get their needs met, they must have allies. The unfortunate fact of the matter is that big cities don’t have enough power on their own to get favorable outcomes. In these times, suburban areas of all rings are the best allies they can get.
Times are changing, Democrats. Time we change too.