Be careful what you wish for
The Novgorod Republic lasted from 1136-1478 of the Common Era. It was the easternmost outpost of that great medieval trading empire, the Hanseatic League. It gained its independence after deposing its hereditary prince, deciding that the citizens could do a better job of governing themselves, rather than subjecting themselves to whomever won the spermatozoic lottery. The legendary Alexander Nevsky was one of their elected princes, putting the Teutonic Order to flight in what made for a smashing film by Sergei Eisenstein.
This state of affairs, as is common in Russia, was brought to an end by conquest. The Grand Princes of Muscovy, ancestors to the Russian Tsars, conquered the Republic. And Russia's only real experience of people's rule came to a sad end.
I mention this history as a prelude to this piece, fronted by the graphic above.
With all the turmoil in our nation, I've neglected my passion, writing about events beyond our borders which will impact us, whether we like it or know it or not. To quote the poet, no man is an island. And a nuclear power possibly undergoing a revolution is nothing to sniff at. (Of course, I think of our own polity undergoing such a revolution as the country spirals out of control, and think nothing good of it.)
Novgorod's conquest set Russian history in motion. It was to be a top-down society, with elites ruling and the common masses suppressed.
Until.
Until those masses got fed up enough and revolted to such an extent and with such violence that the old order was swept away, and a new order created.
But here's the sad thing: the new order has never been a democratic order. That died with Novgorod. The truism of Russian history is that the Russian people will revolt against a regime which no longer provides it security. But it will not replace it with a democracy. Russians view democracy as weak and ill-suited to the "Russian soul". Alexander Kerensky's government after the overthrow of Tsar Nicholas II was doomed, because it didn't crush Russians under its boot. Vladimir Lenin's October coup was much more to the Russians' liking. He promised order and strength, and no accomodation with the outside world. Perhaps if Kerensky had abandoned the Western Allies in World War I and withdrawn from the war, his government would have survived. Lenin did just that, and created a regime which lasted eighty years.
Perhaps if the West had flooded Russia with aid after the fall of the Soviet Union, it may have steered the country to join the Concert of Nations. That it, essentially, spiked the ball and offered it only shock economic therapy is part of the reason for Vladimir Putin's rise. The West humiliated Russia in its defeat, in a way that it didn't do to Germany or Japan after World War II. This is a strategic mistake with which we shall all live. But there was no stomach for a Marshall Plan 2.0. We were supposed to get a "peace dividend". Oh, what fools we be.
Instead, we have a revanchist Russia, seeking to recreate its ancient empire. This is the source of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Vladimir Putin isn't a Communist; he's a Russian chauvinist who sees peril all around his periphery, which must be met with maximum force. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy making overtures to the West was all the excuse Putin needed for launching his "3-day war". Sadly for him, he was lied to by his sycophants as to the efficacy of his military. Four years later, and Russia is edging towards catastrophe.
Here's the thing. Russia falling into political disorder would be as catastrophic as the other two major nuclear powers—China and the US—doing likewise. For world peace, it is not something to be wished for. But this is the possibility we're facing. And the relevant powers need to face up to this possibility and plan for it. Russians are politically docile. Until they're not. And then the world changes, often for the worse.