Perception Versus Reality: May 2024 Edition
Let's get outside the bubble, shall we?
And what do I mean by bubble? Well, quite simply, I mean let's move away from some nagging narratives that our news media simply won't let go of. Because in their ongoing quest to horserace the shit of the 2024 election, there are some very real facts that run counter to how our media is presenting the current state of the country. For example:
1. Our border is not an uncontrolled warzone. From CBS News:
El Paso, Texas — Illegal crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border in May are down by more than 50% compared to the record highs reported in December, giving the Biden administration an unexpected reprieve during a time when migration has historically surged, according to internal government data obtained by CBS News.
During the first 21 days of May, U.S. Border Patrol agents recorded a daily average of approximately 3,700 apprehensions of migrants between official ports of entry. That represents a 54% decrease from the 8,000 daily average in December, when illegal entries soared to a quarter of a million, an all-time high.
May is also on track to see the third consecutive month-over-month drop in unlawful border crossings, the preliminary U.S. Department of Homeland Security statistics show. In March and April, illegal crossings along the southern border dropped to 137,000 and 129,000, respectively, according to public government data. If the trend continues, Border Patrol is on pace to record between 110,000 and 120,000 apprehensions in May.
Border Patrol apprehensions don't include the number of migrants processed at official border crossings, where the Biden administration is admitting roughly 1,500 asylum-seekers on a daily basis.
While still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, the drop in migration this year has been unusual, bucking the trend in recent years of migrant crossings soaring in the spring. Senior U.S. officials have partially attributed the lower-than-expected levels of unlawful crossings to an aggressive crackdown on U.S.-bound migrants by the Mexican government.
Notice how Republicans aren't clamoring for urgent action at the border? Notice how after stomping their feet and impeaching DHS Secretary Alexander Mayorkas, Republicans haven't put up a fight to try and advance his impeachment in the Senate? There is a reason for that and the reason is that the Biden Administration's policies are actually deterring illegal border crossings over the past three months. By preemptively offering a strong border bill with many of the things that Republicans have been clamoring for and seeing it stall in the House, Joe Biden has called Republicans' bluff and has made it clear that the GOP would rather have the border as an election issue rather than solving the problem. This master class in politicking 101 has gotten Republicans on their heels and if these numbers continue the GOP will have lost border security as a key talking point as we approach the fall.
2. Violent crime is dropping at historic levels. From The Guardian:
Homicides in major US cities are falling at likely “one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded”, a crime analysis has found.
Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, a New Orleans-based data-analytics company focused on criminal justice, education and the non-profit sector, discussed that finding with the Wall Street Journal on Monday after combing through quarterly data recently released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
“There’s just a ton of places that you can point to that are showing widespread, very positive trends,” Asher told the Journal
In the company’s sample of almost 200 cities with varying population sizes, murder was down by 20.8% from the period beginning in January through the end of March of this year when compared with the same time period in 2023, as Asher wrote in a recent Substack post on the subject.
Ah, yes. The ole "Democrats are soft on crime" trope. Funny how Republicans are seemingly concerned about crime and violence in New York City but can freely travel to and from the courtroom where Donald Trump is on trial. But that's beside the point. What we have here is another example where Republican fear-mongering is running up against the reality of the situation and that reality is that violent crime is at record low levels. While there are a lot of competing factors at play to explain this, the truth of the matter is that with a strong economy, good-paying jobs, more accessible health care, and cleared student loans, there have been numerous policies enacted by the Biden-Harris administration that have helped lift families out of the type of poverty that can lead to a sense of dread and despair and can eventually force those into dangerous professions and side hustles that often lead to violence. By growing the economy from the middle class out, the Biden-Harris Administration is creating new opportunities for all Americans, but especially those in urban areas. When people feel a sense of hope, it yields more positive outcomes and makes certain individuals less likely to turn toward crime and violence as a way to survive and provide for their families.
3. Nobody outside of the tankiest of tankies thinks Gaza is a critical issue. From Newsweek:
Younger Americans are far more likely to prioritize bread-and-butter economic issues over causes like climate change and the Israel-Gaza conflict this election year, according to recent polling from Harvard University.
The annual Harvard Youth Poll, run by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard's Kennedy School, surveys Americans between the ages of 18- and 29-years-old about the issues that matter most to them. This year's poll found that young people are much closer in their concerns to the broader electorate than media reports may suggest, with inflation, health care and housing topping their list, followed by gun violence.
The survey identified 16 current issues facing the U.S., asking respondents which of two randomly paired issues most concerned them. Inflation came out on top, with 64 percent of respondents rating it as more important than whatever issues it was matched against.
The conflict in the Middle East ranked near the bottom of young Americans' concerns at 15th, with 34 percent of respondents choosing it over whatever randomly selected issue it was matched against. The only issue that ranked lower was student debt, which came in dead last at 26 percent.
This (points up). As I've been saying for months, the Gaza on-campus protests are an astroturfed campaign, done in combination with opportunistic activists on the left, Republicans on the right, and foreign adversaries from abroad. As the Newsweek poll shows, even Gen Z doesn't see the conflict as the defining issue of our time. In fact, it's not even close. Because while those on elite private campuses are drawing the most media coverage the fact of the matter is that Gaza isn't not will it be a top issue in November, especially if Israel withdraws its troops between now and then. Much like Afghanistan (remember Afghanistan?), there will be a small number of voters insisting on withholding their vote for Biden over the issue but these numbers will be so paltry that it won't make a discernable difference when it comes time to the final vote tally. As the poll shows there are fourteen other issues that Gen Z is more concerned about and there is no way these issues are ones in which Republicans can win over this newest pool of voters as they head to the polls. Gaza will be the furthest thing from 99 out of 100 Democrats' minds and that one person was never going to vote for Joe Biden anyway.
The reality of all this is that President Biden has simply stayed the course and correctly ignored all the outside noise. Because while our media continues to underestimate him, Joe Biden is slowly but steadily kneecapping traditional Republican election-year talking points. Immigration. Violent crime. Inflation. Gas prices. President Biden is getting ahead on all these things while simultaneously balancing the situation in Gaza by being a firm supporter of the State of Israel while working to ensure that the Gazan people have access to aid and supplies all while working diligently toward a tenable two-state solution. It is the goal of the challenging party to offer a contrasting vision for the country. What Joe Biden is doing is preemptively upending GOP (and, by proxy our mainstream media) talking points about the current state of the country. By creating sound policies, Joe Biden is taking away Republicans' bread and butter. At this rate, all they will have left to run on is fear, anxiety, and a willful desire to make women second-class citizens.
I like our chances.