2024 Presidential Election Situation Report

Right now, the usual metrics for taking stock of the election are in flux.

Polling is pointing in one direction; special election results and fundraising, in the opposite direction.

This is partly because this is not a normal election.

Though if this election is the new normal, that is even worse.

Current Situation

For now, President Biden is enjoying a bump in the polls.

Emphasis on for now.

This polling bump could disappear at any moment.

The correct things to pay attention to are special election results, a more reliable method of taking the political temperature.

If looked at correctly, fundraising can be a useful tool as well.

Before New Zealand Labour lost the general election of October 2023 (quite badly, I would sadly add) to the Nationals, New Zealand Labour was losing or underperforming in New Zealand’s version of special elections.

On the flip side, Republicans were consistently underperforming in special elections after the Dobbs decision, though Republicans were overperforming before the Dobbs decision.

Biden and Trump are facing a different set of formidable challenges as presidential candidates.

President Biden is facing historically low approval ratings as president. On top of this, Biden is dealing with a crisis in the Middle East that is aggravating fractures inside the Democratic coalition. Given President Biden’s personality, he has tried to please both the pro- and anti-Israel constituencies.

I can safely say that things have not gone well on this front.

Iran’s missile attacks on Israel have not made this problem any better.

Not helping matters is that the media is even worse now than in 2016 and 2020. It is obvious to everyone that many of the journalists want Trump back in the White House.

For example, all electoral evidence in the books so far points to abortion playing a large role in how voters, especially women, make their decisions, regardless of what the New York Times says.

However, Trump has some serious challenges of his own.

Trump’s campaign is dealing with serious money problems, primarily because of Trump’s own legal bills and attempts to prop up Truth Social—not to mention Trump is on trial for various offenses across the country.

On top of this, the Biden campaign (and Democrats overall) have significant leads in cash on hand, booked ads, and fully staffed campaign offices, especially in swing states.

To be clear, these advantages don’t guarantee election wins, but they help a great deal. Especially in tight races.

You have an advantage if you can get to voters first.

I would argue that Trump’s biggest challenge is that while people may dislike President Biden, they frequently hate Trump even more. Moreover, he has a proven ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Again, I would point to special election results as the main indicator.

The question is, who can overcome his set of unique challenges?

I would hedge my money on President Biden.

Instructions as Voters

If you can, vote early.

Do not treat voting as a ritual. Treat it as a job to get done. Your vote will count the same no matter what.

With that in mind, the sooner you get your ballot in, the more time the Democratic campaign apparatus will have to spend on undecided voters and flip those votes in our favor.

Donate to down-ballot campaigns such as Senate and House candidates, but especially state-level races such as the state supreme court. As Arizona unfortunately demonstrates, those races matter now more than ever.

Let me know if anyone needs help on how to vote early. I will post answers in the comments below if you tag me and ask.