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Primary Tuesday: On Michigan and "uncommitted"


Well, here we go everyone. Today is primary day in Michigan. President Joe Biden is seeking to continue his dominance here from South Carolina and New Hampshire. Dean Phillips is still in the race, such as it is. Marianne Williamson has suspended her campaign. By all political logic, Pres. Biden should gallop to victory as he did at the start of the month.

However, a spanner has been thrown into the works.

Representative Rashida Tlaib (Hamas - Dearborn Heights) has urged voters to vote "uncommitted" as a rebuke to the president over his position on the Hamas-Israel War. She seems to believe this will move the Overton Window.

This is akin to the move in New Hampshire to have voters write in "ceasefire" rather than Pres. Biden's name for a similar reason. In New Hampshire that didn't work. Neither will it in Michigan.

Ms. Tlaib overestimates the strength of the Arab/Muslim vote in a Democratic primary. It is not determinative, even in Michigan. The base of the Democratic Party in that state, as in South Carolina, is Black. Black people are not going to go along with her remonstrances, especially since relations between the two communities are not the best. (Yes, believe it or not, Arabs can be racist, too!) Also, as we saw in New Hampshire, Democratic voters are not all that eager to cast protest votes. 

Her stratagem might have a bit more efficacy in Michigan, as it's targeting a specific community. But at the end of the day, I don't think it will have much effect. A state like New Hampshire was more conducive for her type of blandishments, and it gave Pres. Biden a resounding victory. I expect the same today.

There are also two other factors which I think will dampen any enthusiasm for such a rebuke.

First was the self-immolation of US airman Aaron Bushnell in front of the Israeli Embassy on Sunday in protest of US policy in the Hamas-Israel War. While people on Twitter are awash in encomiums over his "brave martyrdom", the great majority of normal Democrats will be sickened by his act, and the praise songs of people using this disturbed young man's suicide as a lodestar of "revolution". Some may not agree with US policy, but they will be even more aghast at his taking his own life, and the support it's receiving from the fringe left. Nothing turns off the Great Middle like displays of senseless violence, even if self-directed.

And then there's this:
Pres. Biden has been moving heaven and earth to bring this war to an end, while not denying Israel its right to self-defense. If he's correct, this ceasefire, though only for six weeks, will give the pause needed for a long-lasting pause. Once the guns of war have been silenced, it's hard to get them screaming again. Israelis will not want to send their sons and daughters back into the Strip. And Hamas' Arab backers have had enough of them. Western Hamas-apologists will be left voiceless, with nothing to protest. The war won't be even a memory after two months. It will be a non-issue for November.

Hamas supporters in the West are their own worst enemies. By calling for Israel's destruction in their protests—and yes, "From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free" is just that—they ceded the moral high ground. Their numbers in the West are not a majority, and not even a plurality. Every act of vandalism and bullying, every poster of kidnapped children torn down destroys their movement. This is true in Michigan as it is anywhere else. The vast majority of Democrats will turn out to vote for Pres. Biden. They know what's at stake, and won't entertain performative outrage on behalf of a community which votes Republican as often if not more as it does Democratic.

So, we slog on. Get your comfy shoes. The way is long, but the end is in sight.

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