But Will They Though?
Country over party.
We hear this phrase all the time in politics. At its core, the phrase is intended to identify voters willing to put some level of dissatisfaction aside within their own political party and do what is right for the country as a whole. The embedded wishfulness behind the phrase is that one will reach the conclusion that it is best to put personal politics aside and do the right thing for the greatest number of people. That, at least, is the hope.
Take, for instance, these exit polls from South Carolina:
Among Haley supporters via @CNN exit polls:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 25, 2024
If Trump wins nomination:
21% satisfied
78% dissatisfied
If Trump is convicted:
15% still fit for presidency
82% unfit for presidency
Now, on the surface, it would appear that Donald Trump is in a world of hurt. First Iowa, then New Hampshire, and now South Carolina. All three states have shown there to be a growing fissure in the Republican Party among those who are pro or anti-Trump. The anti-Trump vote has clearly coalesced around Nikki Haley and as the CNN exit polls show, these types of voters would be dissatisfied if Trump wins and would see him as unfit for the presidency if he is convicted in one of the four concurrent cases currently making their way through the legal system. Were Trump to become the nominee, which by now seems all but inevitable, there would appear to be a decent faction of Republican voters who would be extremely disheartened about this result. Were he to then face a conviction, there would be additional Republican voters likely to see him as being unsuited for the presidency. Is the 2024 presidential election now over before it even begins?
No, and here's why.
While exit polls like Saturday's in South Carolina do indicate a fracture, it is a temporary fracture at best. While Nikki Haley supporters might be "dissatisfied" with a Trump nomination or see him as "unfit" if he were to be convinced, there remains a second, more critical follow-up question that exit polls are not asking: would you still vote for Donald Trump if he were the GOP nominee?
That is the question exit polls don't capture because they are designed to be a heat-of-the-moment response to what is currently happening. But the election is over 8 months away. That's 253 days for those of you counting at home. While the 40% of South Carolina Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley on Saturday might currently see Donald Trump as unelectable, that's not to say they won't rally around him in the months to come. After all, we've already seen Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis bend the knee so who's to say Nikki Haley won't be far behind? Will GOP South Carolina voters stay true to their February exit poll or will they join others in rallying behind Trump as the nominee?
Answering this question gets back to the country over party line of thinking. Because if Republican voters don't vote for Donald Trump, then they risk a second Joe Biden term. Are they patriotic enough to accept four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as a clear indicator of their dissatisfaction with Donald Trump? Or do they swallow their pride, hold their nose, and vote for him for a third straight time?
While Republican voters currently might have doubts, we cannot underestimate just how intense the Republican echo chamber will be over the next 8+ months. From the summer onward, Republican voters will be inundated with messaging about Joe Biden, open borders, radical judges, Hunter Biden and the Biden crime family, woke schools, and terrifying drag queens. A second Biden term would end America as they know it. Boys playing on girls' sports teams. Violent immigrants trafficking fentanyl over the southern border. A door-to-door police force taking everyone's guns. Republicans being imprisoned and violently tortured simply for opposing Democrats. Can we honestly expect Republican voters to simply ignore all the noise for 8 months and not cast their vote for their party's presidential nominee?
Talk in cheap in today's Republican Party. And even cheaper is their ability to put country over party. As Democrats, we have to assume that very few Republican voters will sit out 2024, even if they have Susan Collinseque "concerns" about Donald Trump. Because in their minds, even worse than an unfit Donald Trump is Joe Biden. That is a bridge too far. For them, Donald Trump is the lesser of two evils and not voting for him could lead to disastrous consequences. They may be "dissatisfied" in voting for him, but even more dissatisfying would be four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in control of the White House. Asking Republicans to save us from a second Donald Trump presidency is like asking Gollum to give up his quest for the One Ring. Yes, such a request could be made. But at the end of the day, their desire for power is so great that if they can't have a Republican in the Oval Office then nobody else should be there either.
It's Donald Trump's party, folks. No matter how many people between now and June cast a primary ballot for Nikki Haley, nearly all of them will hop on the Trump Train come November. We, as Democrats, have to accept this. Trump's cult cannot be dissuaded. There are no reasonable Republicans left. Roughly 70 million Republicans will cast their vote for Donald Trump on or before November 5th, country over party be damned. The sooner we accept this fact, the sooner we can continue our outreach to young voters, voters of color, and independents. Because a Donald Trump nomination will do nothing to dissuade temporarily dissatisfied Republican voters from coming around and voting for him in November.
No matter what the exit polls say.