Update on Ukraine
Things are hotting up in Ukraine.
I follow several opsec channels on YouTube. And the general consensus is that Ukraine is making steady gains, while Russians keep retreating.
And we have to remember this is only Phase 1 of the counteroffensive. Ukraine has ten brigades, of about 5,000 soldiers each, ready to launch into Phase 2 of the offensive. If Russia is already suffering under these preliminary attacks, it doesn't look good for the main thrust.
Just as his puppet is facing the consequences of his hubris, so is Russian dictator Vladimir Putin staring into his comeuppance.
Putin had crushed all opposition in Russia. But regardless of that, he was actually popular among his citizens. They credited him with pulling Russia out of the post-Soviet collapse, rescuing the economy, and making it a member of the international community. Russia had inherited—unjustly—the Soviet permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Russia was one of the G-8 rulers of the world, even though its economy didn't really warrant that. It was becoming embedded into the liberal world order.
But, Russia is an odd country. And the leaders it produces always fall back on the tried and true of Russian politics: subterfuge, authoritarianism, and repression. Remember that Putin got his start as the chief aide to St. Petersburg's liberal mayor, Anatoly Sobchak—who died in mysterious circumstances. It should have been obvious that a child of the KGB was no democrat. But in the heady post-Cold War days, we had too much of an expectation of Russia. (The West also has a share of the blame for what Russia is now. In our triumphalism, we pushed Russia into "shock therapy", with state enterprises being sold to thugs for pennies on the ruble, creating the oligarch class and the conditions for the rise of someone like Putin.)
However, to say that Putin was never popular would be a lie. He was. Whether he remains so now is hard to tell. There is only one independent pollster left in the country, and polling a nation which is mired in quasi-totalitarianism, where wearing a combination of blue and yellow clothing will land you in prison, is, obviously, not optimal.
As Putin slid into dictatorship, the Russian people made a compact: Keep the oil money flowing, keep the economy strong, and we will stay out of politics. It's the deal that the oligarchs made with him.
This adventure into Ukraine has ruptured that. Oligarchs have had assets in the West seized. Russians can't travel to their European vacation spots. And more and more sons of Russia are being sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine, to achieve by war what could have possibly been achieved by diplomacy.
But Russian history is not one of diplomacy. It's one of threat and bluster. To bray about "American imperialism", while ignoring the blatant Russian imperial stretch, is the modus operandi of Putin's stooges in the West.
Ukraine will win this war. It has the world's most powerful allies, the topmost being the US. Russia has Iran and North Korea and Syria. Even China isn't an ally; it's using Russia's distress to assert its influence in Central Asia, and preparing to annex Russia's Far East once the Putin regime collapses.
It was said that the American invasion of Iraq was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century. It was nothing of the kind. It was a mistake. A costly one. But one which the US could survive and slough off because it is not a superpower, but a hyperpower. Its resources dwarf all other states. However, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is the greatest geopolitical disaster since the end of the Second World War. I keep turning to the myth of Icarus. Putin underestimated both Europe and the United States. He thought he had Europe captive due to its dependence on Russia for energy. And he made the same miscalculation about Joe Biden that all of his adversaries make. Instead, President Biden organized a coalition to stop Russia. He repaired the damage done to the Western alliance by his predecessor, and turned it into an expression of a democratic coalition's values. He thought he could dominate the political space; instead, he's being defeated by American surplus military equipment.
Hubris will be the theme of the histories written about our times. Small men with small minds thinking they were more than they were, taking on the forces of the world and being destroyed. It will be a signal lesson to those who wish to traduce human freedom and agency as we evolve as a species. I hate bullies with every fiber of my being, and I'm here for it.
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