Open thread: Continuing Russian civil war

So, let me get some thoughts out there.

First, Yevgeny Prigozhin is no democrat. In many ways he's worse than Vladimir Putin. His main complaint is that the war in Ukraine isn't being prosecuted in a way which would achieve victory. (Victory was always a chimera, in my estimation, as Russia has a Potemkin military.) His original goal was to be the power behind the throne, keeping Putin as a figurehead. But now that Putin has painted him as a traitor, survival means that Putin has to go.

But this doesn't mean that Prigozhin will be the new tsar. Oligarchs are unlikely to throw their support behind "Putin's chef". And these oligarchs have been encouraged to build their own private militaries by Putin. As I see it, the most likely outcome is that various factions vie for power, Prigozhin being one of them. 

Now Putin? His position looks much worse than it was even twelve hours ago. He should have withdrawn troops from the Ukrainian front to deal with this coup. But he's committed to Ukraine's eradication. This is redolent of how towards the end of the war in Europe, the trains kept running to the death camps, when they were desperately needed to ferry troops to hold the front. Ideological rigidity leads to a downfall.

Sergei Shoygu and Valery Gerasimov, the defense minister and chief of staff respectively, had best be heading to Venezuela toute de suite. They have no base of support to contend a civil war. They thrived in the mafia state which Putin ran; that state of affairs seems to be at an end. They've led a disastrous war, and have no friends left. Whomever ends up in power will want scapegoats, and Shoygu and Gerasimov are ripe for those roles.

Reports are that Putin has fled to one of his bunkers. Some thought he was in St. Petersburg. Others are saying that he's in a mountain bunker. Whatever the case may be, he can't count on support. As I said yesterday, if Wagner took Rostov, Putin's position would quickly deteriorate. We're seeing that now. Russian regular units are either joining Wagner, or standing aside to see how things settle. And, at any rate, as I said, Putin's insistence on keeping up the Ukraine war limits his military options. He's keeping the trains running to the hecatomb, rather than protecting his power.

But, again, Putin is done. Even if he "survives", his power has leeched away. His weakness is there for all to see. His creation, Prigozhin, turned against him. And other power centers in Russia have been biding their time for this opportunity. Being a mafia boss is precarious. One misstep, and the capos pounce.

Stay frosty, and remember: things can go sideways really fast in a civil war.