Beyond Ukraine: The United States Must Deal with Iran, Russia, and China

It has been just over a year since Putin launched his full-fledged invasion of Ukraine.

Both good news and bad news has come out of Ukraine.

The bad news is that Russia has gained ground in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, and thanks to the mobilization of 200,000 more troops, Russia will have much more strength to make up for its losses, combined with the aid of the Wagner Group. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has become a hyper partisan issue in the United States thanks in large part to Fox News (looking at you, Tucker Carlson) and the rest of the conservative media ecosystem that runs the Republican Party.

Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene (who in practice runs the House) have made it clear that she and her allies are looking to cut aid to Ukraine on any pretense, despite the obvious fact that a world in which Russia conquers Eastern Ukraine is a world that is unsafe for America and its interests.

Worst of all, China has decided to start aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine after previously staying out of it.

The good news is that the Russian military has taken serious losses in its war against Ukraine. Well over 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, or captured. Roughly half of the Russian tank fleet is gone. It is important to note that Russia having to turn to China for help and having to rely on mercenaries are signs of serious weakness on its part.

Mercenaries are typically used by governments that don’t have the capacity to carry out tasks for which they are hiring the mercenaries.

Think about what that means for the Russian military that it needs to resort to relying on a private military company because it was so unprepared and/or its losses are that serious.

Best of all, even after a year of fighting an enemy with no regard for human life and that has it outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine is still in fighting shape.

Despite the serious losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces, the atrocities carried out by the Russian war machine against innocent civilians, economic devastation, and the loss of 20 percent of its territory, the armed forces and people of Ukraine have indicated that neither their will nor capacity to fight is wavering anytime soon.

I thought that Russia would overrun Ukraine in a matter of days when Putin started this war. Yet this special military operation that was supposed to be over in less than a week has dragged on and killed tens of thousands of Russians.

I am happy to say I was very wrong. Not only did I underestimate the capabilities and resolve of the Ukrainian armed forces, I overestimated the capabilities of Russia’s war machine.

Most importantly, I underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people to fight.

It’s Confirmed: It’s Cold War II

What is clear is that while Russia decided to start a war in Ukraine in the name of rebuilding the old Russian Empire, China has decided to restart the Cold War in earnest.

It’s the United States and its allies across the world versus a new Axis of three primary regimes:

the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation, and the People’s Republic of China. Other regimes in countries like Hungary, Serbia, North Korea, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba are also allied with these three countries, but these are the three primary antagonists.

Other powers might ally with this Axis of Evil, such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and other such states.

But in order to wage this Cold War, it is important to note the common characteristics of these regimes.

Common Traits

All of these regimes are totalitarian in nature. I use that term specifically because all of these governments don’t just repress their people, they seek to control every aspect of the societies they rule. For example, the Islamic Republic in Iran exercises extreme control over the minds and bodies of the women it rules, Putin’s regime seeks to turn Russia’s people into fodder for his endless wars, and the Chinese Communist Party seeks to control every aspect of its citizens’ lives (and is quite successful).

All three regimes have at best weak rule of law. That means your property and person can easily and arbitrarily be seized in all three countries. As a professional, an entrepreneur, a member of the armed forces, or a civil servant, your career and even your safety is heavily dependent on how much the ruling regime likes you. You can get away with corruption and abusing your power as a member of the elite in these countries so long as it does not impact those above you or your peers, and there are few if any mechanisms for accountability for you in these countries if you have the right money and connections. Cross the wrong person or the regime in question, however, and your days will be numbered.

Most of the ruling class in Russia are people who got rich by looting old Soviet assets and taking advantage of Russia’s richness in oil. Most of Russia’s elite either got their start in organized crime or by cutting deals with corrupt officials to get certain industries in their pockets alone.

However, even the richest Russians are vulnerable to a grisly fate if they cross Putin and his regime.

The gallows humor of Russians falling out of windows is based on this reality.

Thanks to China’s rapid rise and modernization, the name of the ruling party in China is a bit anachronistic. The Chinese Communist Party no longer rules a communist country but a highly authoritarian (transitioning to totalitarian) capitalist country. The country has proven itself to be the factory of the world, and many of China’s citizens have built fortunes in the global market.

That being said, getting on the CCP’s bad side will end poorly for you in China, and no amount of money can protect you if the party truly wants you destroyed.

Iran’s economy is based largely on oil, and despite what it may say with the nature of its regime, it is highly corrupt.

It is important to note that all three regimes are quite misogynistic, two in ideology and all three in practice.

The Islamic Republic is notorious for how it regulates and controls the lives of its female citizens, in ways that incels in the Free World would do if they had the chance.

Under Putin’s regime, violence against women is—described most generously—decriminalized at home and is arguably encouraged. The Russian war machine systematically carries out mass rape against Ukrainian women as a terror tactic. This is not unusual for the Russian army either.

The Chinese Communist Party claims that it supports women (it says that women “hold up half the sky”), but its actions tell another story. China’s ruling regime considers any type of feminist activism a threat to its power, no matter how mundane or reasonable the demands.

Speaking of institutionalized misogyny, all three regimes are quite hostile toward the LGBT community, with often horrific consequences.

Before Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Russia pioneered the ideas and methods of Don’t Say Gay legislation. In effect, it is illegal to acknowledge that LGBT people are just like everyone else.

The situation is far worse in Chechnya, a region in Southern Russia. Here, there have been frequent purges of “purges,” which means mass disappearances, torture, and murder. Not coincidentally, the commanders from Chechnya have been responsible for some of the worst war crimes in Ukraine.

Under Putin, just existing as themselves is a crime that carries stiff penalties, a situation that is only getting worse.

In China, things were OK during the 2000s—not great or even good but not dangerous.

The situation is getting worse under Xi. Conversation therapy is still common in China, and LGBT people have no legal protections.

But Iran takes the cake for the horrors it inflicts. LGBT people can be sentenced to death in Iran or forced to undergo sex reassignment surgeries.

All three of these regimes have and will continue to work with traitors inside the United States, especially Russia.

If these regimes sound like the modern-day Republican Party, that is no accident.

Most importantly, all three of these regimes have and will continue to use present-day divisions in the United States to advance their agendas, much like the Soviet Union did during the Cold War.

Assessment of the Regimes

Out of the three regimes, the People’s Republic of China is by far the most formidable.

Not only does China have the second-largest economy in the world after the United States, this regime has a highly sophisticated and capable intelligence apparatus that can spread its malign influence abroad and easily crush dissent at home. This apparatus can also reach out against dissenters living overseas.

This regime has even helped the Islamic Republic in its efforts to put down the uprising.

The People’s Liberation Army, the official name of the Chinese military, is large and well equipped, both on land and at sea. Its navy is growing and modernizing rapidly.

It is a legitimately formidable opponent, and war games have demonstrated that if the United States and China were to go to war over Taiwan, China would have the edge, though the People’s Liberation Army would suffer heavy losses in the process.

But the CCP would be wise to consider that its armed forces are largely untested.

Russia as a state has paid a serious price for invading Ukraine. Its economy has taken a major hit, and Europe has proven it does not have to rely on Russian gas. Right now, Putin has gotten closer to Xi to get Russia’s economy back on track.

Despite a significant advantage in manpower and equipment (both quality and quantity) at the start of its invasion, the institutional weaknesses of the Russian war machine are glaringly obvious. Deep levels of corruption, failures in training at all levels, unit structuring that is too rigid, a logistical system that is unfit for purpose, and leadership that is incredibly incompetent are all characteristics of the Russian military. It is a blessing that the Russian military has these traits because they gave the Ukrainian armed forces a strong fighting chance. But it is also a curse because it means there is nothing to control the worst instincts of the Russian hordes to loot, rape, and murder. In fact, the Russian military encourages this brutality toward innocent people no matter where it goes.

The Islamic Republic has had some success in putting down the protests, but the movement is far from dead. This regime is the weakest but by no means is a pushover.

All three have a significant advantage in that they don’t have to worry about how casualties may affect popular support, only in how they affect combat strength.

But this is a double-edged sword. It also means they often take on unnecessary casualties and actions that are incredibly self-destructive. Moreover, these regimes have a nasty habit of biting off more than they can chew.

What Must Be Done

Democrats must recognize that when push comes to shove, the Republican Party as an organization will ally with any foreign power if it means defeating Democrats and holding on to power themselves.

Republicans talk tough on China and Iran, but their actions regarding Trump’s indictment and Russian interference prove that they will throw in with both regimes if it suits them.

It is vital that Democrats all over the country not only understand this fact but make sure that voters do as well.

The United States armed forces must be maintained at current levels if not expanded. The United States Navy in particular is in urgent need of modernization while we still can.

In addition, the United States State Department, intelligence, and law enforcement apparatuses need to be inspected for traitors, especially the FBI. I suspect the uncovered traitor who was working for the Russians inside the FBI’s New York office is not the only one.

We must develop a version of NATO for the Pacific to counter China and North Korea. I would encourage the United States to help Japan build up its armed forces, along with Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and other adversaries of China in the region. These allies will need help building up their intelligence and law enforcement apparatuses as well.

A closer relationship must be built with Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other countries in Southeast Asia that may not be friends of the United States but are not friends of China either.

Theoretically (and hopefully never), America could wage war against China alone, but it would be far easier to fight a cold war with allies, especially against an opponent that is just as ruthless as the old Soviet Union and in many critical ways even more powerful.

Keep in mind that supplying the Ukrainians with war supplies can and will drain the Russian armed forces and Putin’s war machine more broadly.

Well over 150,000 Russians have been killed in Ukraine without any American boots on the ground.

But most importantly, we as Americans need to clean the house of traitors.

The future of the United States depends on it.

 

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