Trump’s Mexican War: A Gift to Drug Cartels

Trump apparently is looking to start a war with Mexico, the country in a supposed effort to go after drug cartels.

Knowing Trump’s record with other dictators and crime bosses around the world, I suspect the right amount of flattery and bribery from a cartel boss will get Trump to back down or at least target rival cartel bosses so both the boss of this cartel in question and Trump walk away happy.

Who Are the Cartels?

The organized crime syndicates in Mexico, known colloquially as Mexican drug cartels, are a major problem for the United States and an arguably existential problem for the Mexican government and people.

Currently, the most powerful of these organizations is the Sinaloa Cartel. You have likely heard of it. The members of the Sinaloa Cartel make most of their money smuggling cocaine, methamphetamine, marijuana grown on both sides of the border, and fentanyl. In addition, the Sinaloa Cartel is also involved in weapons trafficking, extortion, fraud, migrant smuggling, and,arguably worst of all, human trafficking.

But the Sinaloa Cartel is not the only major player in Mexico.

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel and La Nueva Familia Michoacana are two of the main rivals of Sinaloa. Both of these cartels are heavily involved in drug trafficking but are more diversified than the Sinaloa Cartel in other illegal areas.

Regardless, drug trafficking, most heavily of cocaine grown in South America, is the bread and butter of these crime syndicates.

These cartels can frequently outgun and outfight the Mexican government’s law enforcement and, at times, its own military (thanks in large part to weapons purchased in the United States), when they are not on the payrolls of the cartels themselves. The malign influence of these cartels can be felt all across Mexico and, to a slightly lesser extent, the south western United States.

Making this problem worse is serious systemic corruption at all levels of the Mexican government, weak institutions and state capacity, and high levels of poverty throughout Mexico.

But it is not just the organizational capabilities of these organizations that make them such a threat.

These drug cartels have unleashed horrors comparable to anything in the Middle East or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Rape, torture, and kidnapping are all regular tools these crime syndicates use against the government, each other, and innocent people.

From a strictly moral standpoint, they have absolutely no compunctions about anything. The only lines they have are maintaining profits and organizational survival.

Why a US Invasion Is a Bad Idea to Tackle These Cartels

It is without a doubt necessary to wipe out these evil organizations’ roots and stems.

Necessary but insufficient.

If the Sinaloa Cartel were wiped out tomorrow, it would be a huge blow against the illegal drug trade and organized crime in Latin America (and the world, for that matter).

But unless certain steps were taken to root out systemic corruption in the Mexican government, the ease of which American-made weapons can be purchased and brought back to Mexico, weakness of Mexican state capacity, and the lack of opportunity in Mexico, the US and Mexican governments would just be playing a bloody game of whack-a-mole.

Even if all the cartels were wiped out at once.

Many people in Mexico (and Latin America, for that matter) have a deep hatred for these crime syndicates. Many of them have lost family members to direct violence from the cartels or have suffered other depredations because of them.

But thanks to using their ill-gotten gains to buy support from some parts of the Mexican public, many of these cartels and their bosses also have powerful support bases. That also needs to be addressed.

These support bases would likely expand if the US invaded Mexico, especially without the consent of the government.

What is most important for a proposed invasion of Mexico is how the Mexican people would react.

Like our lovely neighbors to the north, the Mexican people are angry and feeling betrayed by Trump’s attempt to start a trade war with them.

Every day, goods worth over $1 billion go across the US-Mexican border. America purchases a large amount of produce and manufactured goods from Mexico.

Mexican politics is its own unique thing that I can write about if anyone is interested (once I do some basic research).

But right now, the government and people of Mexico are quite angry at the unprovoked trade war and the lack of respect Trump has shown to their sovereignty.

Moreover, a military insertion into Mexico without the consent of its government will unnecessarily trigger even more anti-American sentiment, fueled in large part by memories of the Mexican-American war.

Ironically, these powerful crime syndicates that are dealing with a hostile public might see an upswing in public support if the United States invades.

Keep in mind that these organizations have experienced, well-armed, and well-trained hitmen at their disposal. Not to mention that just to survive, a typical drug cartel in Mexico has to be able capture and hold territory. Both from rivals and the government.

So an invasion of Mexico to destroy the cartels would see some immediate destruction of many powerful crime syndicates if lucky.

What is certain is that the Mexican people would hate it, and either terrorist organizations or the cartels would take advantage of that animosity to stage a comeback.

Moreover, how do you think the US military under Trump would navigate the political landscape of Mexico? How would they know who is friend and who is foe?

How would its institutions be rebuilt?

While this invasion might severely disrupt the drug trade, it would for sure cripple the economy of the southern United States—an economy that heavily depends on trade from the US-Mexico border—not to mention send food prices soaring even faster.

But I think the cartels will learn what most dictators and other crime lords around the world have learned.

Trump can be bribed easily.

The cartel members interviewed in the article linked above are more worried about rival cartels than an invasion of the US military.

I share their assessment.

In many ways, this proposed invasion is symbolic of Trump’s whole administration not even one hundred days in.

Poorly thought out with no regard for consequences.