Begun, This Trade Was Has
Welcome to February.
Barely two weeks into Trump's second administration things are going exactly as planned. There is already confusion, chaos, and corruption to the nth degree. The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing. Public policy is again being decreed by social media. Unelected oligarchs are attempting to control some of the country's most sensitive information. We've already had one tragedy and the accompanying lack of empathy and decorum mirrors what we saw during Trump's last administration. With congressional Republicans set to approve the rest of Trump's historically rancid cabinet selections this week, we are seeing the implementation of Project 2025 in real time. If you were paying attention these last two years, you knew this was coming.
And you also knew that Trump would have to pony up on his campaign promises at some point.
That point is now as Trump has officially announced a series of upcoming tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China aimed at stemming the flow of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants into the country. Designed to penalize these three countries for their role in the fentanyl trade, these new tariffs aim to bring these countries to the negotiating table to come up with a solution to the problem. In the meantime, Canada and Mexico will both be charged with a 25% tariff on their imports and China will be charged 10%. It should be noted that Canada will only receive a 10% tariff on "energy resources" such as oil and gas. The Trump Administration has kept the door open for additional penalties to be doled out if there are any retaliatory measures done as a result of these initial tariffs. All of this is set to kick in on Tuesday when the tariffs officially take effect.
The reaction to this announcement has been swift and succinct. The Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal editorial board has already proclaimed this to be the "dumbest trade war in history." Canada is ready to retaliate with its own 25% tariff on $107 billion worth of American goods such as beer, wine, sporting goods, and household appliances with British Columbia's premier even going so far as to vowing to stop purchasing alcohol from red states. Mexico also pledged to retaliate with its own version of a 25% tariff on American goods such as cheese, pork produce, steel, and aluminum. Meanwhile, China has vowed its own retaliatory measures, starting by filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization. It's gotten so bad that even Maine Senator Susan Collins has furrowed her brow and tweeted to demonstrate her growing concern with the tariffs' impact on her home state.
Even Trump himself has acknowledged how the tariffs might lead to pain for the American consumer. But it hasn't stopped him from moving forward with his planned tariffs. "Moses" Mike Johnson is also fully on board despite having initially doubted that there would be across-the-board tariffs for the countries in question. While various Senate Republicans have expressed concern about the impact of Trump tariffs on their home states, clearly none of them have the cajones to publicly challenge Trump on the issue. Food, agricultural goods, gas, and other items will all see a spike in cost as a result of this impending trade war. Instead of just eggs, Americans will be seeing higher prices across the board as a result of Donald Trump and Republican policies.
But it was never about everyday Americans. It never has been and it never will be. Even Trump's faint concern for those impacted by the fentanyl trade and illegal immigration is a farce. With improved security measures and processes, there was a 60% decrease in the number of encounters with undocumented immigrants along the southwest ports of entry during the latter half of 2024. A major reason for this decrease was the improved process using the CBP One App, a system that allowed asylum-seekers to do a virtual "check-in" before they arrived in the United States. Last week, the Trump Administration suspended this app, leaving thousands of asylum-seekers (who have a legal right to present themselves at the border) in a state of limbo. What we will inevitably see will be an increase in illegal border crossings, all because Trump and Republicans refuse to build on the progress of the Biden-Harris Administration.
It will get worse before it gets better. This trade war could go one of two ways: it could end up being temporary before Trump claims "victory" and magically undoes the tariffs or it could last a while to assuage Trump's ego and make Mexico, Canada, and China feel the "pain" that Trump somehow figures they will feel. Regardless, this is a crisis of Trump's own making. The spike in prices, whether short-term or long-term is directly a result of his policies. This isn't on Joe Biden. This is on Donald John Trump. He owns this. Republicans own this. This is no longer the price of eggs controlled by external factors. This is the higher cost of items from our 3 biggest trading partners costing significantly more because of decisions Republicans are making.
We're two weeks in and have firmly entered the FO phase of having elected Donald Trump for a second time. The 75 million of us knew this was coming. But it's the 77 million Trump voters and the 89 million nonvoters who are in for a rude awakening. Trump won't hurt us was the theme of the 2024 election. But he is hurting you. He's hurting your family. He's hurting your wallets. He's hurting your communities. If these tariffs go through small businesses will be ruined. Entire industries will suffer. Costs will skyrocket. Even those fortunate enough to have investments will see those investments decrease significantly as the markets crash as a result of this trade war. "I didn't vote for this" you'll say. But you did. By voting for Trump. By not voting. By being one of the 6 million Biden voters who couldn't bear to vote for the Black lady. Your non-vote was a vote. Starting Tuesday, you'll see the very real impact of your decision on your everyday life.
A decision that all of us will have to live with for the next 4 years.