Can Polls Still Give Us Useful Information? (Spoiler Alert: Maybe and Probably Not)

Once upon a time, polling was a quite reliable way to tell who was winning an election.

Now? Polling has had a series of catastrophic events failures starting in 2016.

The polls were reasonably accurate during the 2018 midterm elections, the 2019 elections, and where it was done, the 2021 races.

But polling missed the 2016 and 2020 races badly, both in margins and results. Even though the most reputable polls were somewhat accurate regarding the 2022 midterm elections (in that they predicted the Republicans would win the House and popular vote, albeit by a slim margin), the polling aggregates were flooded with polls that were garbage and predicted a red wave—a red wave that, although it showed up in a few places like New York and Florida, for the most part failed to materialize.

In 2023, the polling results have so far been big misses.

For example, polling failed to predict the Chicago mayoral race correctly (though to be fair, so did I). No polling was done on an arguably far more consequential race in Wisconsin for the State Supreme Court.

What is going on? Are polls still a useful tool for reading the political landscape, and if not, what can an observer use to make predictions? 

What Happened with Polling?

Polling got much harder to perform reliably, and the pollsters themselves changed.

I would argue that the rise of cell phone technology and the ability to block spam callers have severely impacted the polling industry because it is now much harder for pollsters to contact voters and get consistent responses. Massive nets have to be cast to get a statistically significant response. Keep in mind that landlines are hardly a thing anymore and many pollsters still rely on them.

Internet polling methods have even bigger problems with responses and having to cast an adequate net, particularly when it comes to polls conducted via social media.

Aggravating all of these problems is who chooses to answer polls. We are not getting reliable or equal responses from people.

I don’t think people deliberately lie to pollsters. I think polls are compromised by who answers them and, more importantly, who doesn’t.

With all that being said, polls, if read correctly, can be of value if they are done properly and used properly. The best use for polling data is to take a snapshot of where the electorate is during the poll.

Polls can be useful in that regard.

However, given how difficult it is to conduct them dependably and how easily they are misinterpreted, may I suggest an alternative to polling to take the political temperature? 

The Case for Special Elections

Special elections have some critical advantages that polls lack.

We can see the mood of the electorate in real time far more directly than polling data can tell us, in addition to consistent patterns with special elections.

For example, before the Dobbs decision, Republicans were in general overperforming during special elections. For example, Republicans managed to flip a House seat in Southern Texas that had been blue for quite some time before Dobbs. In this case, it was the Texas 34th House congressional district.

Frankly, if it were not for the Dobbs decision, along with avoidable mistakes Republicans made in 2022, the Republicans would have had a much better night.

But the special election results and polling diverged significantly in the last weeks of the 2022 midterms, with polls predicting significant gains in the House for Republicans and the Senate flipping as well.

Turns out, the special election results were more predictive.

Even in 2020, when Democrats were supposed to get a blue wave up and down the ballot, instead, Democrats gravely underperformed. Paying attention to special elections could have foretold that something was amiss in 2020 for Democrats if you knew where to look.

Now, keep in mind that special elections on their own have limited predictive power. Factors such as candidate quality, why there is a special election in the first place, and events in the state can have major impacts.

But if enough special elections (or scheduled minor elections) show a pattern of over/underperformances, then we have a reliable sign of how the public is feeling or at least who is motivated to vote.

What This Means for 2024

So far, Democrats have been over performing in special elections across the country, and Republicans have been underperforming.

So far being the key words.

We will have more reliable results coming in from Virginia and Kentucky, where the legislature and governor’s mansion are up for grabs, respectively.

Speaking of which, Kentucky has a gubernatorial race quite soon. So make sure to spread the word to your acquaintances, relatives, and friends in Kentucky to vote in that election, especially considering that Andy Beshear has done an excellent job as governor of Kentucky and the Republican candidate, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, helped to cover up the killing of Breonna Taylor by Louisville police during a no-knock raid. I will be posting some information below.

But Democrats still need to fight hard during the 2024 general elections, notably across the Great Lakes, in Georgia, and in the Southwest.

Let’s show how the public is feeling with the special elections and the elections coming up in November.

If you have any questions about elections in your state or local area, please post in the comments.

Stay frosty. Andy Beshear, Kentucky Governor, Running for reelection: Website | Donation | Facebook | Twitter