An Overall Analysis of the Midterms
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| Photo by Nataliya Vaitkevich |
The red wave that was supposed to deliver a sizable majority of the House to Republicans only delivered them a five to six-seat majority.
As of writing, Republicans are on track to lose ground in the Senate, and Democrats have a net gain of two governor’s mansions and several state legislative chambers.
But Republicans are also poised to wipe out Democrats in Florida, the lower Midwest and much of Appalachia, especially West Virginia.
Republicans have a net gain of maybe nine seats in the House, not even breaking into double-digit gains.
Don’t take my word for it; maybe legacy conservative media outlets are furious about this as well.
For example, Ben Shapiro, in a “broken clock being right twice a day” situation, pointed out that Republicans had a huge opportunity to win big and they blew it.
So what happened to the red wave?
Well, that depends on what part of the country you look at.
Where Things Went Well for Democrats
In the Great Lakes region, Democrats had a surprisingly strong midterm.Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers outperformed his 2018 margins, and Wisconsin Democrats won every statewide race with the unfortunate exception of the Senate seat and the State Treasurer's seat. In what was in retrospect a bad decision (though understandable given the data), Democrats triaged what was a close race in the Wisconsin Third Congressional District, a district that went red. Governor Evers still has the veto pen, along with an attorney general who will protect reproductive rights and a secretary of state who will protect voting rights, though Republicans did win the state treasurer’s race. Most importantly, Wisconsin Republicans don’t have a supermajority in Wisconsin’s state legislature thanks to falling short in its state assembly.
Wisconsin is objectively a draw, but considering how tilted the playing field is for Republicans in the Badger State thanks to the most gerrymandered maps in the country and just how unfavorable many of the fundamentals were supposed to be for Democrats, a draw is not bad.
Here in Minnesota, Democrats won every statewide election (sometimes with margins too close for comfort) and held all of our congressional seats. Most importantly, Democrats in Minnesota held the state house and won the state senate.
That means a Democratic trifecta in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
In Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro easily defeated Doug Mastriano, one of the scariest candidates this midterm. Shapiro’s overperformance facilitated pushing Senator-elect John Fetterman across the finish line. It helped that Dr. Mehmet Oz (he is someone who pushed fake medicine) was an extremely weak candidate whose comments about abortion bailed out Fetterman after a fairly anemic debate performance. In addition, Democrats gained the Pennsylvania house and Republicans lost a congressional seat.
This was aided by the F-tier candidates the Republicans kept putting up.
I am disappointed by the Senate race result out of Ohio, but Tim Ryan’s performance assisted Ohio Democrats at the congressional level. I also think it is important to keep in mind that Senator-elect J. D. Vance’s underperforming campaign needing to be bailed out by Mitch McConnell helped other Democratic candidates for Senate across the country. However, I will add the important caveat that Republicans gained ground in Ohio’s state legislature.
But the most impressive performance in the Great Lakes region would have to be Michigan. Not only did Governor Whitmer and other statewide Democratic candidates in Michigan wipe the floor with their Republican opponents, Democrats also flipped both state legislative chambers while flipping a net of one seat. I would attribute this in large part to the abortion rights referendum combined with the Dobbs decision.
Be on the lookout for more about the Great Lakes blue tide.
In Colorado, Democrats came close to defeating Representative Lauren Boebert and gained a congressional seat, though it was a close race. Governor Jared Polis won by a landslide, and the other statewide Democrats won by double-digit margins. Democrats expanded their majorities in the Colorado legislature by five seats in the state house and two seats in the state senate. In addition, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet sailed to an easy reelection victory.
It’s a similar story in New Mexico. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won reelection by a sizable margin, as did other Democrats running for statewide office in New Mexico. Democrats flipped the New Mexico Second Congressional District from red to blue, though by a close margin. Democrats easily held both legislative chambers, though they did lose a seat in the state house.
Stay tuned for more about the Democratic triumphs in the Boulder and the Land of Enchantment.
To the surprise of no one, Democrats did very well in New England.
With the exception of New Hampshire and Vermont, Democrats have trifectas in every state in the New England region. Thanks in part to our own Trevor Lafauci, Massachusetts now has a trifecta for the Democrats.
Governor Elect Wes Moore made history as Maryland's first Black Governor, all the while Maryland Democrats strengthened their hold on the State Legislature.
Maine Governor Janet Mills won reelection and destroyed the political aspirations of Paul LePage. Hopefully for good. Democrats still have both legislative chambers in Maine, along with both congressional seats.
With the exception of Maine Senator Susan Collins, New England is completely represented by Democrats at the federal level.
Keep an eye out for triumphs in New England.
In Nevada, Democrats held on to all three of their congressional districts, expanded their majorities in the state legislature, held the vital secretary of state’s office, and held the Senate seat that held the Senate for Democrats, but Democrats lost the governor’s mansion and controller’s office.
As for Arizona, Democrats won the majority of their statewide elections, including the vital gubernatorial election and secretary of state’s race, ate away at the Republican majorities in the state legislature and most importantly, Senator Mark Kelly easily held his seat, but Democrats lost ground in the number of congressional seats and lost the superintendent of public instruction seat.
In short, Democrats worked hard, had solid candidates in Nevada and Arizona, and got lucky. In Nevada, they got lucky that the reckless gambling by the DSA-controlled state party was bailed out by the Reid machine and the Culinary Workers Union. In Arizona, Democrats got lucky that MAGA Republicans set their own political apparatus on fire to spite the late Senator John McCain.
I will have more to say about the stalemate in the southwest in another piece.
Virginia and North Carolina had a mixed showing.
I knew the chances of a red wave had gone down substantially when Representative Abigail Spanberger won her race in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District. Unfortunately, Democratic Representative Elaine Luria of the Virginia Second Congressional District lost her seat and it went red. All the other congressional races in Virginia were held by the incumbents.
Worryingly, Republicans won the congressional vote in Virginia, thanks to Democratic underperformance in their home districts, a flipped seat, and Republican overperformance in their own seats.
In North Carolina, Democrats barely stopped the Republicans from gaining a supermajority in the legislature and so kept Democratic Governor Ray Cooper’s veto pen a solid wall. Impressively, Democrats gained two congressional seats out of North Carolina. However, Republicans won some critical seats on the North Carolina State Supreme Court. Despite an impressive showing from Cheri Beasley for the Senate seat, she ultimately lost her race.
As for Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp unfortunately beat Stacey Abrams by a solid margin, and all the other candidates besides Senator Warnock (whose race, as of time of writing, has gone to a runoff) fell short in their statewide races, although not by large margins like in Florida and Texas. Democrats lost a congressional seat in Georgia, though they did gain a few seats in the state house and a seat or two in the state senate. That’s cold comfort though for an otherwise bad night for Peach State Democrats.
If people want me to examine the mixed results coming out of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, please let me know.
As for New Hampshire, Republicans, assuming that the one state house seat still to be counted goes red, will have a trifecta but will be represented at the federal level completely by Democrats. Though this comes with the heavy caveat that New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is actually quite reasonable and competent, at least by Republican standards.
I will have more to say later about New Hampshire’s Granite election.
Alaska is an odd state to look at. The Republican easily won reelection for governor, but it appears that a coalition of Democrats and Republicans will be taking power in one of the Alaska state legislative chambers, the Senate to be exact. Democratic Representative Mary Peltola easily won reelection and hopefully put Sarah Palin’s political aspirations down for good. Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection as well, with the help of Democratic voters.
But with Representative Mary Peltola winning reelection, every district bordering the Pacific Ocean is now represented by a Democrat.
Which leads nicely to the draw on the West Coast.
I am more than mildly frustrated that California Governor Gavin Newsom spent too much time trolling Governor DeSantis instead of campaigning for Democrats in California’s purple districts. As a result, Governor Newsom underperformed compared to 2018, as did Democrats across California. As good of a job as I think he is doing as governor, I don’t want Governor Newsom running for president because he dropped the ball at a really bad time.
Things went a lot better than I thought they would in Oregon. Tina Kotek, despite unfavorable polls, a fairly unpopular incumbent Democrat as her predecessor, and a small fortune spent against her, managed to win the governor’s mansion and maintain the Democratic trifecta in Oregon, though they no longer have a supermajority. Democrats lost the Oregon Fifth Congressional District thanks to far left incompetence (as much as I disliked the representative, I think Kurt Schrader would have held the district; see Representative Henry Cuellar’s reelection to the Texas Twenty-Eighth Congressional District as to why I think so). Democrats did gain the new Oregon Sixth Congressional District but lost two seats in the state house and one seat in the state senate.
In my assessment of the West Coast, Washington State Democrats had the strongest showing. They managed to score an upset in the traditionally red Washington Third Congressional District thanks to an outstanding campaign by Representative-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Let’s not forget to thank MAGA for pushing out a Republican who held the district easily but who committed the unforgivable crime of voting to impeach Donald Trump and for putting up a truly garbage candidate, even by MAGA standards. The Washington State legislature is still counting the votes as of writing, but it looks like Democrats will still hold solid majorities in both state legislatures, albeit having lost some ground. Washington Senator Patty Murray easily won reelection.
Four congressional seats, five state senate seats, and, as of writing, six state assembly seats were lost in New York State. By New York State standards for a Democrat, all the Democrats running for a statewide office severely underperformed, though New York Governor Kathy Hochul underperformed worst of all.
I assess the disaster in New York as a series of interlocking failures that relate to the corrosive legacy of former Governor Andrew Cuomo, sabotage by Republican judges when New York was drawing its maps, the extraordinarily dysfunctional relationship that the different factions inside New York Democratic politics have, sabotage by the far left, voter concerns around rising crime, and Governor Kathy Hochul, who was simply unprepared for the position from a political standpoint.
I will break down the disaster in the Empire State, starting first with my biases so you know where I am coming from, and later offer some recommendations on how to rebuild.
As for the Sunshine State, Florida experienced a huge red wave. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by close to 20 points, and Senator Marco Rubio won by a slightly smaller margin. Worse, Republicans gained a supermajority in both legislative chambers, along with four congressional seats.
For Florida Democrats, it was nothing short of Armageddon. I don’t know if they can even rebuild.
I can’t ignore Texas because it is so big, but even though it was not a complete wipeout, Democrats did poorly in the Lone Star State, losing a seat in both legislative chambers, though holding the line when it comes to congressional races. All the Democrats running for state office lost their races by at least double-digit margins.
I may look into the bloodbath in the Lone Star State if anyone is interested.
Outside of Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, things went quite badly in the Midwest for Democrats, especially in Iowa and Missouri. Same for the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah, though none of that was a surprise.
By around 10:00 p.m.–10:30 p.m. on election night 2018, it was clear Democrats were going to take the House back—the only question was the margin.
Democrats had a net gain of 40 congressional seats and nine governor’s mansions, along with several legislative chambers flipped.
On election nights in 2010 and 2014, the scale of the wipeout was obvious early on. Entire Democratic delegations were wiped off the map, as were legislative chambers.
Maine Governor Janet Mills won reelection and destroyed the political aspirations of Paul LePage. Hopefully for good. Democrats still have both legislative chambers in Maine, along with both congressional seats.
With the exception of Maine Senator Susan Collins, New England is completely represented by Democrats at the federal level.
Keep an eye out for triumphs in New England.
Where a Stalemate Held
In the southwestern states of Arizona and Nevada, it was an overall stalemate.In Nevada, Democrats held on to all three of their congressional districts, expanded their majorities in the state legislature, held the vital secretary of state’s office, and held the Senate seat that held the Senate for Democrats, but Democrats lost the governor’s mansion and controller’s office.
As for Arizona, Democrats won the majority of their statewide elections, including the vital gubernatorial election and secretary of state’s race, ate away at the Republican majorities in the state legislature and most importantly, Senator Mark Kelly easily held his seat, but Democrats lost ground in the number of congressional seats and lost the superintendent of public instruction seat.
In short, Democrats worked hard, had solid candidates in Nevada and Arizona, and got lucky. In Nevada, they got lucky that the reckless gambling by the DSA-controlled state party was bailed out by the Reid machine and the Culinary Workers Union. In Arizona, Democrats got lucky that MAGA Republicans set their own political apparatus on fire to spite the late Senator John McCain.
I will have more to say about the stalemate in the southwest in another piece.
Virginia and North Carolina had a mixed showing.
I knew the chances of a red wave had gone down substantially when Representative Abigail Spanberger won her race in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District. Unfortunately, Democratic Representative Elaine Luria of the Virginia Second Congressional District lost her seat and it went red. All the other congressional races in Virginia were held by the incumbents.
Worryingly, Republicans won the congressional vote in Virginia, thanks to Democratic underperformance in their home districts, a flipped seat, and Republican overperformance in their own seats.
In North Carolina, Democrats barely stopped the Republicans from gaining a supermajority in the legislature and so kept Democratic Governor Ray Cooper’s veto pen a solid wall. Impressively, Democrats gained two congressional seats out of North Carolina. However, Republicans won some critical seats on the North Carolina State Supreme Court. Despite an impressive showing from Cheri Beasley for the Senate seat, she ultimately lost her race.
As for Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp unfortunately beat Stacey Abrams by a solid margin, and all the other candidates besides Senator Warnock (whose race, as of time of writing, has gone to a runoff) fell short in their statewide races, although not by large margins like in Florida and Texas. Democrats lost a congressional seat in Georgia, though they did gain a few seats in the state house and a seat or two in the state senate. That’s cold comfort though for an otherwise bad night for Peach State Democrats.
If people want me to examine the mixed results coming out of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, please let me know.
As for New Hampshire, Republicans, assuming that the one state house seat still to be counted goes red, will have a trifecta but will be represented at the federal level completely by Democrats. Though this comes with the heavy caveat that New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is actually quite reasonable and competent, at least by Republican standards.
I will have more to say later about New Hampshire’s Granite election.
Alaska is an odd state to look at. The Republican easily won reelection for governor, but it appears that a coalition of Democrats and Republicans will be taking power in one of the Alaska state legislative chambers, the Senate to be exact. Democratic Representative Mary Peltola easily won reelection and hopefully put Sarah Palin’s political aspirations down for good. Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection as well, with the help of Democratic voters.
But with Representative Mary Peltola winning reelection, every district bordering the Pacific Ocean is now represented by a Democrat.
Which leads nicely to the draw on the West Coast.
I am more than mildly frustrated that California Governor Gavin Newsom spent too much time trolling Governor DeSantis instead of campaigning for Democrats in California’s purple districts. As a result, Governor Newsom underperformed compared to 2018, as did Democrats across California. As good of a job as I think he is doing as governor, I don’t want Governor Newsom running for president because he dropped the ball at a really bad time.
Things went a lot better than I thought they would in Oregon. Tina Kotek, despite unfavorable polls, a fairly unpopular incumbent Democrat as her predecessor, and a small fortune spent against her, managed to win the governor’s mansion and maintain the Democratic trifecta in Oregon, though they no longer have a supermajority. Democrats lost the Oregon Fifth Congressional District thanks to far left incompetence (as much as I disliked the representative, I think Kurt Schrader would have held the district; see Representative Henry Cuellar’s reelection to the Texas Twenty-Eighth Congressional District as to why I think so). Democrats did gain the new Oregon Sixth Congressional District but lost two seats in the state house and one seat in the state senate.
In my assessment of the West Coast, Washington State Democrats had the strongest showing. They managed to score an upset in the traditionally red Washington Third Congressional District thanks to an outstanding campaign by Representative-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Let’s not forget to thank MAGA for pushing out a Republican who held the district easily but who committed the unforgivable crime of voting to impeach Donald Trump and for putting up a truly garbage candidate, even by MAGA standards. The Washington State legislature is still counting the votes as of writing, but it looks like Democrats will still hold solid majorities in both state legislatures, albeit having lost some ground. Washington Senator Patty Murray easily won reelection.
Where Things Went Wrong for Democrats
That is not to say there weren’t some places where the red wave did hit.Four congressional seats, five state senate seats, and, as of writing, six state assembly seats were lost in New York State. By New York State standards for a Democrat, all the Democrats running for a statewide office severely underperformed, though New York Governor Kathy Hochul underperformed worst of all.
I assess the disaster in New York as a series of interlocking failures that relate to the corrosive legacy of former Governor Andrew Cuomo, sabotage by Republican judges when New York was drawing its maps, the extraordinarily dysfunctional relationship that the different factions inside New York Democratic politics have, sabotage by the far left, voter concerns around rising crime, and Governor Kathy Hochul, who was simply unprepared for the position from a political standpoint.
I will break down the disaster in the Empire State, starting first with my biases so you know where I am coming from, and later offer some recommendations on how to rebuild.
As for the Sunshine State, Florida experienced a huge red wave. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by close to 20 points, and Senator Marco Rubio won by a slightly smaller margin. Worse, Republicans gained a supermajority in both legislative chambers, along with four congressional seats.
For Florida Democrats, it was nothing short of Armageddon. I don’t know if they can even rebuild.
I can’t ignore Texas because it is so big, but even though it was not a complete wipeout, Democrats did poorly in the Lone Star State, losing a seat in both legislative chambers, though holding the line when it comes to congressional races. All the Democrats running for state office lost their races by at least double-digit margins.
I may look into the bloodbath in the Lone Star State if anyone is interested.
Outside of Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, things went quite badly in the Midwest for Democrats, especially in Iowa and Missouri. Same for the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah, though none of that was a surprise.
Takeaways
Typically, wave elections are obvious by the middle of election night.By around 10:00 p.m.–10:30 p.m. on election night 2018, it was clear Democrats were going to take the House back—the only question was the margin.
Democrats had a net gain of 40 congressional seats and nine governor’s mansions, along with several legislative chambers flipped.
On election nights in 2010 and 2014, the scale of the wipeout was obvious early on. Entire Democratic delegations were wiped off the map, as were legislative chambers.
This time, it took days to determine who won the House and Senate.
This midterm was a stalemate, with the victor determined by what part of the country and races you are looking at.
Considering what typically happens to the president’s party during midterm elections, especially when the president has approval ratings in the low 40s, a stalemate is a pretty good result.
One of the biggest winners of the midterms were abortion rights. With the fall of Roe v. Wade, voters, especially women, made it clear beyond the shadow of a doubt just how upset they were about losing their bodily autonomy all over the country.
When abortion was explicitly on the ballot, abortion won every single time, even in states like Kentucky and Montana.
It turns out Americans are largely pro-choice, even if ambivalently.
Another key lesson from this is that candidate quality matters. If the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (NRSCC) had selected someone other than a celebrity doctor in Pennsylvania, a plausible school shooter for Arizona, a washed-up general in New Hampshire, an ex-NFL player with brain damage in Georgia, and a spoiled loser in Nevada, there is a good chance that the Republicans could have taken the Senate.
By contrast, Democrats for the most part ran excellent senatorial candidates, even in tough seats where the fundamentals were too much to overcome.
But the biggest takeaway is that, as Tim Miller so eloquently says in this video, “People are really sick of the crazy shit.”
Republican candidates who ran on the big lie or otherwise emulated Trump were defeated across the country or otherwise seriously underperformed.
Compare the fates of Kari Lake and Joe Lombardo, the Republicans who ran for governor for Arizona and Nevada, respectively, and you will see my point.
As unfit for office in both experience and character Governor-elect Joe Lombardo may be, he was a much smarter opponent than Kari Lake because he understood he had to keep Trump down to a degree and actually appeal to independent voters.
But voters being tired of extremism and crazy cuts both ways. When presented with mainstream Democrats and the far left in regular elections, mainstream Democrats tend to win.
Look at the results out of San Francisco on election night if you need an illustration. Or how ask how Governor-elect Josh Shapiro ran way ahead of Senator-elect John Fetterman.
Considering all the headwinds that were facing Democrats this year, a stalemate is not a bad result.
More analysis and solutions will be forthcoming.
This midterm was a stalemate, with the victor determined by what part of the country and races you are looking at.
Considering what typically happens to the president’s party during midterm elections, especially when the president has approval ratings in the low 40s, a stalemate is a pretty good result.
One of the biggest winners of the midterms were abortion rights. With the fall of Roe v. Wade, voters, especially women, made it clear beyond the shadow of a doubt just how upset they were about losing their bodily autonomy all over the country.
When abortion was explicitly on the ballot, abortion won every single time, even in states like Kentucky and Montana.
It turns out Americans are largely pro-choice, even if ambivalently.
Another key lesson from this is that candidate quality matters. If the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (NRSCC) had selected someone other than a celebrity doctor in Pennsylvania, a plausible school shooter for Arizona, a washed-up general in New Hampshire, an ex-NFL player with brain damage in Georgia, and a spoiled loser in Nevada, there is a good chance that the Republicans could have taken the Senate.
By contrast, Democrats for the most part ran excellent senatorial candidates, even in tough seats where the fundamentals were too much to overcome.
But the biggest takeaway is that, as Tim Miller so eloquently says in this video, “People are really sick of the crazy shit.”
Republican candidates who ran on the big lie or otherwise emulated Trump were defeated across the country or otherwise seriously underperformed.
Compare the fates of Kari Lake and Joe Lombardo, the Republicans who ran for governor for Arizona and Nevada, respectively, and you will see my point.
As unfit for office in both experience and character Governor-elect Joe Lombardo may be, he was a much smarter opponent than Kari Lake because he understood he had to keep Trump down to a degree and actually appeal to independent voters.
But voters being tired of extremism and crazy cuts both ways. When presented with mainstream Democrats and the far left in regular elections, mainstream Democrats tend to win.
Look at the results out of San Francisco on election night if you need an illustration. Or how ask how Governor-elect Josh Shapiro ran way ahead of Senator-elect John Fetterman.
Considering all the headwinds that were facing Democrats this year, a stalemate is not a bad result.
More analysis and solutions will be forthcoming.
Stay frosty.