Monday open thread: A short précis on the Congressional generic ballot
The other day, I was greeted with this joyful news:
This was the previous PBS/Marist poll:Latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll:
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) May 20, 2022
"47% of registered voters...say they will support the Democrat on the ballot in this year’s Congressional Midterm Elections. 42% think they will back the Republican."
Now. Forty-seven plus forty-two equals eighty-nine, leaving 11% undecided. This, however, is rather normal for this poll. It's May, and there's a lot of time left. People aren't paying close attention. But, and this is important: The undecideds tend to split along the same lines as the decided. The generic ballot poll had the same outlook in the Democratic tsunami of 2018.NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist:
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) May 20, 2022
"Last month, prior to the leaked [Supreme] Court document [on abortion rights], 47% of voters nationally supported the Republican candidate, and 44% supported the Democratic candidate."
Here are the brass tacks: the lead of the Samuel Alito's Roe decision is the best thing that could have happened to Democrats. Yes, the overturning of Roe v Wade will be awful. But this is the truth about Americans: Something awful has to happen before the sleeping giant awakens. There were pro-Roe protests in my wife's hometown of Noblesville, Indiana; this is not a hotbed of leftist radicalism. I wager that the polls still haven't caught up with the groundswell of anger engendered by the coming Roe decision.
Do we get complacent? Of course not, and hell no. As our own crabby Victor laid out the other day, nothing is guaranteed, and you can't rely on polling. But it's better to have good polling putting wind in our sails than bad polling depressing turnout. Even Georgia, with its new voter-suppression laws, is seeing record turnout, with 95% of all eligible Georgians registered to vote, the highest in the nation. (This is also why I denigrate those leftists who discount "red" states as not worth contesting. Without Senators Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, President Joe Biden would be mired in even more Washington dysfunction.)
Do what you can to bring home victory in November. Donate. Phonebank. Text-bank. Send cards. Be visible on social media. It's all to play for, and we dare not let down our guard.
This is your open thread.