How's that "retribution" going?
Even Harry Enten, who glories in "bad news for Democrats", can't put a pig on a lipstick: The GOP is in a world of hurt leading into the midterm elections. The linked story is from a week ago, when a Democrat flipped a ruby red Texas Senate seat not by turning out more Democrats, but by winning over Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
And then the election in Louisiana happened.
Chasity Martinez held onto a Democratic seat, yes. But it was in the manner in which she did it which is the klaxon for GOP hopes. It was an almost 40-point swing from the 2024 results for Donald Trump.
These results have been repeating over and over again since Trump regained power in 2025. Almost from the outset, voters realized the grave error they made and gave Democrats in special elections and off-year elections victory after victory. One need only look at the results in New Jersey and Virginia, or the victory of Proposition 50 in California, to see that what's brewing is not a minor Democratic win; it is shaping up to be a wave election on a par with 2006, if not bigger.
This is a channel I've taken to watching on YouTube. All the haruspices are pointing to an absolute wipeout for the GOP:
Again. Things could change. November is a long way away. But I have been around long enough to see the waves of 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018. Past may not be prologue, but it's a good indication. It's barely conceivable that a party which has had this string of successes in the run-up to a midterm election has then failed to go on and capture the House.
And it's not only the House which is likely to fall to the Democrats. Again from the same channel:
Yes, turning Texas purple has been the White Whale of Democratic aspirations since the days of Lloyd Bentsen and Ann Richards. I'm not holding my breath. But neither is it an impossibility nor an improbability.
A reaction to the Trump regime was in inevitability. What I didn't count on is that it would be such a snapback. The assassination of Alex Pretti was the fulcrum. Suddenly the majority voting bloc realized that they, too, were not safe from the regime. It was no longer Black and brown people being gunned down, abducted, renditioned. It was a white, male gun owner, a VA nurse. That clarified minds. State violence against Black and brown bodies is a given in this country. But when the state starts to kill fine, upstanding white citizens like Mr. Pretti, then something clicks. Suddenly the violence isn't an academic exercise, a thought experiment to be condemned but not rectified. Now, as the kids say, shit got real.
This regime came into power with only one thing on its mind: retribution. Vengeance is mine, sayeth the Trump. Sure, Trump said that he would be "retribution" for his followers. But, of course, that was a lie. The only retribution Trump cared about was retribution for his own perceived injuries. As always, he wanted to avenge himself on a world and a country which always has and continues to mock him. And he and his coterie thought that winning 49% of the vote would ensure them untrammeled power. They thought it was a permanent shift in the country's politics. But instead of slowly turning up the heat and getting the country inured to its fate, it just put the water on boil and threw in the collective frog. That was not smart.
And now we've reached this stage:
Our modern political history is rife with examples of lame ducks, since the two-term limit for the presidency came into effect. What this particular lame-duck moment promises to be, however, is something unique. If Democrats retake both the House and Senate, I think you will see Republicans break with Trump and position themselves for a post-Trump world. They will all imitate Sergeant Schultz from Hogan's Heroes, having known nothing and seen nothing. Although it will still be a longshot, there is every chance that not only will Trump be impeached, but actually convicted in the Senate. Early days, yes. But you have to plan for these things.
When your entire political raison d'etre is to be "retribution" and you can't get above 50% in the election, and 40% of eligible voters didn't even vote, that will come to bite you in the ass. That's what we're seeing right now. The conscience of the American public has been pricked. Hopefully it will be enough to wash away this whole rotten excrement into history's sewer.