The 89 Million
It will be critical for us to keep perspective for these next 4 years.
That perspective must begin with acknowledging the reality of the 2024 election. While there is and will continue to be much hand-wringing about the 7 million Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 and couldn't be bothered to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, we also must look at what Trump's total vote share looks like. When you break it down, Trump currently has just under 50% of the popular vote with that share likely to decrease as final vote totals come in from Democratic strongholds like California, Oregon, and Washington. While he did flip a total of 6 states from 2020, it is telling that less than half of the voting-eligible population at large saw him as their candidate of choice. But even more telling is how many voters sat out this election with current estimates placing that number at over 89 million Americans. When you realize that 36% of potential voters sat this election out and less than 50% of those who did vote voted for Trump, you'll see that overall only 32% of Americans supported Donald Trump, Republicans, and their Project 2025 agenda.
While I'll be the first to admit the 32% number is 32% too high, it is a number that we must keep coming back to in the weeks and months ahead. In basic terms, only 1 out of 3 Americans are onboard for what Republicans are selling. That leaves 2 out of every 3 Americans as not having implicitly endorsed mass internment camps, business-killing tariffs, and a national abortion ban among other things. This 32% number has remained remarkably consistent ever since Trump seized power in 2016 and can be used to analyze multiple political trends in this country. The percentage of Americans against licenses from local law enforcement and a law requiring guns be locked up while in the home? 28%. The percentage of non-vaccinated Americans? 30%. The percentage of Americans against marriage equality? 31%. The percentage of Americans who think that abortion should be illegal in most or all circumstances? 36%. Breaking down issue after issue and you can see that the 1/3 number remains remarkably consistent from a Republican base that is very much set in its ways.
Clearly, those voters are unreachable. They're too far down the rabbit hole to suddenly see the light. The 74.4 million Democrats who voted for Kamala Harris obviously understood the assignment. But it's the other 89 million Americans that have the potential to be our saving grace these next four years. I highlight the word potential because as we saw in 2016 and 2024, we can no longer count on our fellow citizens to do the obvious and correct thing. Due to two-and-a-half centuries of systemic injustice, there will always be a large percentage of nonvoters who feel their voice does not matter. These are the "both parties are the same" voters we hear about time and time again from news media doing their stories at the local rural diner. Despite a concerted effort by Democrats every 4 years, nothing we do seems to wake these nonvoters from their slumber. It was only through the very obvious impact of COVID-19 that we were able to get the largest increase of voters between two elections in our nation's history. A percentage of historical nonvoters saw the very real consequences of a president's actions (or in this case inactions) during a global pandemic and voted for a much-needed change of leadership. For many of them, this was the first time they saw a clear difference in the parties.
That perspective must begin with acknowledging the reality of the 2024 election. While there is and will continue to be much hand-wringing about the 7 million Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 and couldn't be bothered to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, we also must look at what Trump's total vote share looks like. When you break it down, Trump currently has just under 50% of the popular vote with that share likely to decrease as final vote totals come in from Democratic strongholds like California, Oregon, and Washington. While he did flip a total of 6 states from 2020, it is telling that less than half of the voting-eligible population at large saw him as their candidate of choice. But even more telling is how many voters sat out this election with current estimates placing that number at over 89 million Americans. When you realize that 36% of potential voters sat this election out and less than 50% of those who did vote voted for Trump, you'll see that overall only 32% of Americans supported Donald Trump, Republicans, and their Project 2025 agenda.
While I'll be the first to admit the 32% number is 32% too high, it is a number that we must keep coming back to in the weeks and months ahead. In basic terms, only 1 out of 3 Americans are onboard for what Republicans are selling. That leaves 2 out of every 3 Americans as not having implicitly endorsed mass internment camps, business-killing tariffs, and a national abortion ban among other things. This 32% number has remained remarkably consistent ever since Trump seized power in 2016 and can be used to analyze multiple political trends in this country. The percentage of Americans against licenses from local law enforcement and a law requiring guns be locked up while in the home? 28%. The percentage of non-vaccinated Americans? 30%. The percentage of Americans against marriage equality? 31%. The percentage of Americans who think that abortion should be illegal in most or all circumstances? 36%. Breaking down issue after issue and you can see that the 1/3 number remains remarkably consistent from a Republican base that is very much set in its ways.
Clearly, those voters are unreachable. They're too far down the rabbit hole to suddenly see the light. The 74.4 million Democrats who voted for Kamala Harris obviously understood the assignment. But it's the other 89 million Americans that have the potential to be our saving grace these next four years. I highlight the word potential because as we saw in 2016 and 2024, we can no longer count on our fellow citizens to do the obvious and correct thing. Due to two-and-a-half centuries of systemic injustice, there will always be a large percentage of nonvoters who feel their voice does not matter. These are the "both parties are the same" voters we hear about time and time again from news media doing their stories at the local rural diner. Despite a concerted effort by Democrats every 4 years, nothing we do seems to wake these nonvoters from their slumber. It was only through the very obvious impact of COVID-19 that we were able to get the largest increase of voters between two elections in our nation's history. A percentage of historical nonvoters saw the very real consequences of a president's actions (or in this case inactions) during a global pandemic and voted for a much-needed change of leadership. For many of them, this was the first time they saw a clear difference in the parties.
In 2024, they missed this message. They were unable to understand basic economics like price gouging and inflation. They saw $6 eggs and immediately blamed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Those who were of college age got swept up with the cool movement of the hour and overnight became pro-Gaza, despite not knowing who Hamas was or where they came from. Their short-term memories forgot just how horrific the end of the Trump administration was and how remarkable it was that Joe Biden was able to vaccinate 70% of Americans and rebuild an economy that at one point had the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression. They were seemingly unaware that insulin had been capped at $35 for those on Medicare. No clue about the 16 million jobs added, the historically low unemployment levels, or the $167 billion in student loan debt forgiven to nearly 5 million Americans. In a world of 206 independent countries, the United States had the best overall post-pandemic economic recovery and managed to avoid a recession that Bloomberg predicted would happen with 100% certainty. None of this was enough to convince 89 million Americans to get out and vote on election day.
These people are not lost causes. But the truth is that they are not as political as you or I. They don't understand the impact that voting can have on their daily lives. They don't see the connection that by not voting, they are giving away their voice in local and state government. They don't understand that they can influence their local town councilor simply by going down to his office and asking him to help fix the road down by the corner store. They fail to grasp that the people they could have voted against on their local school board have now made it more difficult for their daughter by increasing graduation requirements. And they don't realize that their nonvote for state representative ended up having someone elected who gave Republicans a supermajority that will now be pushing to close the local Planned Parenthood that so many youth (both girls and boys) have come to rely on for contraception.
We have an education gap in this country. There's a reason why Republicans have waged a war on education for the last half-century. An educated populace is one that understands the role of civic engagement and participation of its citizens. Not only how to vote but why to vote. Why your vote matters locally even if you're in a red state. Why your vote matters in California when two Congressmen will be elected by razor-thin margins. Why your vote matters in swing state Pennsylvania where the House Democrats held onto their advantage by a single seat, giving Governor Josh Shapiro the ability to proceed with his Democratic agenda. Democracy matters, especially at the local level.
Sadly, what many of these 89 million voters will need will be the kick in the pants that a Trump administration provides. Immigrant roundups. Excessive tariffs driving up the price of household goods. Additional abortion bans and restrictions on women's health and reproductive services. But it will also be what Republicans will be taking away from them that will cause a stir. The protections for pre-existing conditions safeguarded by the ACA? Potentially gone. Environmental protections for our most vulnerable communities? Potentially out the window. Common sense gun violence prevention laws? Potentially on the chopping block. Meanwhile, the richest 1% will once again get a generous tax cut and the rest of us will be stuck in an inevitable recession that would have been 100% preventable with a Democratic administration that understands economics 101.
It shouldn't have to come to this. But this is where we are in 2024 with one-third of the voting-eligible population sitting on the sidelines, completely uninterested in the life-altering game of politics that is going on each and every day. No billboard warning of Trump the Tyrant impacted them. Neither did the local television or radio ad in favor of Kamala Harris. Issues like Gaza, fascism, or the price of eggs were nonstarters. When volunteers spoke with them about the importance of the election, their response was a simple three-word reply: "I don't vote." While 74 million of us are in various states of mourning, these nonvoters are going about their daily lives, blissfully unaware of what will come as a result of their inaction this past election day. Their lives and the lives of their children will be significantly worse off and yet they still will proclaim that their vote and their voice do not matter.
It does. A painful lesson for them (and all of us) these next 4 years.
These people are not lost causes. But the truth is that they are not as political as you or I. They don't understand the impact that voting can have on their daily lives. They don't see the connection that by not voting, they are giving away their voice in local and state government. They don't understand that they can influence their local town councilor simply by going down to his office and asking him to help fix the road down by the corner store. They fail to grasp that the people they could have voted against on their local school board have now made it more difficult for their daughter by increasing graduation requirements. And they don't realize that their nonvote for state representative ended up having someone elected who gave Republicans a supermajority that will now be pushing to close the local Planned Parenthood that so many youth (both girls and boys) have come to rely on for contraception.
We have an education gap in this country. There's a reason why Republicans have waged a war on education for the last half-century. An educated populace is one that understands the role of civic engagement and participation of its citizens. Not only how to vote but why to vote. Why your vote matters locally even if you're in a red state. Why your vote matters in California when two Congressmen will be elected by razor-thin margins. Why your vote matters in swing state Pennsylvania where the House Democrats held onto their advantage by a single seat, giving Governor Josh Shapiro the ability to proceed with his Democratic agenda. Democracy matters, especially at the local level.
Sadly, what many of these 89 million voters will need will be the kick in the pants that a Trump administration provides. Immigrant roundups. Excessive tariffs driving up the price of household goods. Additional abortion bans and restrictions on women's health and reproductive services. But it will also be what Republicans will be taking away from them that will cause a stir. The protections for pre-existing conditions safeguarded by the ACA? Potentially gone. Environmental protections for our most vulnerable communities? Potentially out the window. Common sense gun violence prevention laws? Potentially on the chopping block. Meanwhile, the richest 1% will once again get a generous tax cut and the rest of us will be stuck in an inevitable recession that would have been 100% preventable with a Democratic administration that understands economics 101.
It shouldn't have to come to this. But this is where we are in 2024 with one-third of the voting-eligible population sitting on the sidelines, completely uninterested in the life-altering game of politics that is going on each and every day. No billboard warning of Trump the Tyrant impacted them. Neither did the local television or radio ad in favor of Kamala Harris. Issues like Gaza, fascism, or the price of eggs were nonstarters. When volunteers spoke with them about the importance of the election, their response was a simple three-word reply: "I don't vote." While 74 million of us are in various states of mourning, these nonvoters are going about their daily lives, blissfully unaware of what will come as a result of their inaction this past election day. Their lives and the lives of their children will be significantly worse off and yet they still will proclaim that their vote and their voice do not matter.
It does. A painful lesson for them (and all of us) these next 4 years.