Strategizing around Senator Sinema and Arizona Voter Blocs

Like all of you, I am quite exasperated by the antics of Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema.

The good news is that nothing has fundamentally changed in the Senate unless Senator Sinema caucuses with Republicans.

Democrats still have an outright majority in the Senate, which means President Biden can govern and appoint judges.

The bad news is that this is creating more chaos at a really bad time.

Senator Sinema’s motives are obvious after taking a quick look at her approval ratings in Arizona, recent election results, and, ironically, learning from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

She knows that she would easily lose a primary to any Democrat who challenged her in a primary.

So her only chance at holding the seat is taking a hostage.

Again, this is similar to what Sanders did in Vermont:

“Run against me, and the seat goes red.”

Biases

I am often frustrated with the shenanigans of Senator Sinema.

Whereas West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (who I consider the last Blue Dog) makes his policy goals clear and is objectively running in a state that is growing more and more hostile to Democrats (as the state legislative races in West Virginia show), I have a much harder time figuring out the policy or ideological goals of Senator Sinema.

It is clear that in some respects, Senator Sinema is excellent at the job of being senator. She played a vital role in passing highly consequential legislation such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPS Act, and recent Gun Control legislation that passed the Senate. In addition, even if I find it to be obsequious, her coziness with Republicans has helped pad vote margins. I will give her credit if she can negotiate a deal regarding immigration and protecting DREAMERS, which would frankly be a legislative game changer.

But Senator Sinema is terrible at actually engaging with her constituents. She has not held a single town hall since getting elected in 2018. As much as I can relate to not wanting to do essentially customer service, it is still a vital part of the job of being senator. Truth be told, I suspect her low popularity is partially because of her weaknesses in this area.

As much grief as Senator Sinema deserves, I think the obsession over her fashion choices and demeanor is fueled in large part by sexism, not to mention her loudest critics are people with whom I have a very bad history.

Also, it is more than a little hypocritical for people to hate on Senator Sinema for this move when Sanders does the exact same thing in Vermont.

Most importantly, I want the seat to stay out of Republican hands no matter who is in the seat.

Context

Senator Sinema is running deep in the red with Democrats, Independents, and Republicans in Arizona.

In fact, her performance among Republicans is her strongest showing, being “only” twenty points underwater, according to a recent poll.

Despite recent statewide gains for Democrats in Arizona, do not make the mistake of thinking that Arizona is now a blue state.

At best, it is purple.

The reason Democrats had success at the state level in Arizona is because MAGA Republicans set their own political machine on fire with abysmal candidates and party leaders while actively antagonizing McCain Republicans, combined with Democrats running good races and even better candidates.

When Republicans run relatively normal candidates for statewide office in Arizona, they tend to win easily.

It is also vital to remember that Arizona Latino voters are not guaranteed to vote blue, as results in 2020 painfully show.

Moreover, a three-way race in Arizona is the last thing we need in an already challenging Senate map in 2024.

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and Montana Senator Jon Tester are all up for reelection in 2024 in deep-red states.

Thinking Things Through

Normally, I would never suggest primarying a Democrat in a tough seat like the Senate seat in Arizona.

However, the fact that Senator Sinema’s approval ratings are deep underwater with everyone makes keeping her around a high-risk proposition.

But so is a three-way Senate race that would require enormous resources just to break even.

Anyone who pays way too much attention to these things will have heard the name of Representative Ruben Gallego of the Arizona 7th Congressional District.

On paper, Representative Gallego is perfect for Arizona.

He is a marine whose company saw some of the worst combat in Iraq. Representative Gallego got involved in politics because he was looking to get more support for his fellow veterans. He has a solid Democratic voting record. The representative represents a heavily Latino district that includes the bulk of Phoenix, which means he may be able to help with Democrats’ problems with Latino voters.

Personally, I respect him immensely because of his service in the marines, the reason he got into politics in the first place, his legislative and political record, and the fact that it is clear he was ready to fight on January 6th to protect his colleagues. From a doing-the-job perspective, I think he would be a fantastic senator for Arizona.

That he endorsed then Senator Kamala Harris for president is another point in favor.

But it is important to remember that for all of his work and service, he is untested against fighting a Republican on even ground, much less red-leaning ground. The Arizona 7th Congressional District is the bluest in Arizona, with a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) margin of D+24. I don’t know how well he would do gaining the support of Independent voters in Arizona, voters who live on the US-Mexico border, or McCain Republicans (the Democrats who have won statewide since 2018 have gotten relatively solid Republican support—tends to be about 10 percent). Nor do I know how thorough his knowledge is of issues facing the state’s Indigenous population, specifically the Navajo, or his relationship with Native voters.

Most importantly for Arizona, I don’t want to assume he is beloved by Arizona Latino voters just because he is Latino himself.

The other option being floated around is Representative Greg Stanton of the Arizona 9th Congressional District (which is Senator Sienna’s old district). He served as a city council member and mayor of Phoenix before serving as a representative. His district has a PVI of D+9.

But the same questions being asked of Representative Gallego need to be asked of Representative Stanton. Will he be able to win over Independents and McCain Republicans in sufficient numbers? How is his relationship with Latino and Native voters? How up-to-date is his knowledge of issues facing these essential sets of voters for Arizona? How is his relationship with Arizonans who live on the border with Mexico?

Most importantly, how will either of them compete against someone like former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey if he decides to run for Senate?

Are there other options on the table to run an actual Democrat besides Representatives Gallego and Stanton if that turns out to be the best bad course of action?

Is not running a Democrat against Senator Sinema the best bad option available?

There are no good options here, so everyone must proceed with careful consideration.

The number one priority here is keeping the Senate seat up in 2024 out of Republican hands.

No matter what.