Breach in the Empire State

In most of the country, Democrats either held the line or gained ground this midterm season.

But in New York, a red wave did hit.

Four congressional seats, one net state senate seat, and, at the time of writing, six state assembly seats were lost in New York.

Democrats are barely holding on to their supermajorities in the legislature.

These results are a disaster that arguably cost Democrats the House.

But before I examine what went wrong and a way out for New York Democrats, I will give away my biases regarding former Governor Andrew Cuomo, current New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and the different wings of the Democratic Party.

Biases

Regarding Andrew Cuomo, I am of two minds about him.

On one hand, I do respect his political and administrative skills. He kept the New York Democratic Party formidable and dominant throughout the 2010s when he first became governor of New York in 2010. He passed legislation that helped people in the form of progressive taxes and some of the strictest gun control in the country. Keep in mind it takes a special level of skill to be dominant in New York politics at the state level.

However, I can’t ignore how he frequently abused his power throughout his tenure and how he treated not only women but also his male subordinates. Cuomo demonstrated little if any regard for the safety of the people around him on a personal level, and he showed a disgusting lack of regard for human life when he moved COVID-19 patients into nursing homes to free up hospital space and later lied about the numbers to make himself look better. Most relevant for the conversation here, his judges struck down the map that would have saved one or two congressional seats.

In retrospect, Governor Cuomo’s biggest mistake was that he did not train a successor to carry out his best policies and his judges.

Andrew Cuomo’s actions played a major role in costing New York Democrats up and down the ballot Tuesday.

I have nothing but contempt for the Squad, especially Representative Cortez. They are social media stars who do very little actual legislative work, especially if you compare them with other women of color elected in 2018, such as Representative Lauren Underwood of the Illinois 14th Congressional District. Their antics, especially around Defund the Police, cost Democrats dearly up and down the ballot in 2020. They love to talk but offer little in the way of actual policies and legislation.

I can see that the members of the Squad, especially Representative Cortes, are highly skilled at playing the media circuit for their own gain, but their antics frequently backfire.

Overall, I loathe the far left almost as much as MAGA for the headaches and betrayals, especially in 2016 and 2020.

Almost being the key word.

In a way, I am sympathetic to current New York Governor Kathy Hochul. She was thrust into the governor’s office with little to no preparation. Governor Hochul was handed a bad situation that her incompetence on the campaign trail made worse. That being said, Governor Hochul can fix the situation if she takes the right steps.

What Were the Results Exactly?

Democrats severely underperformed in New York City proper, especially in Queens.

Compare New York City results from 2014, another midterm during a Democratic president, with the results in 2022. I will be using 2018 as well.

In 2014, Governor Cuomo won Queens by 53.7 points, Brooklyn by 63.7 points, the Bronx by 75.6 points, and Manhattan by 66.9 points. Cuomo won by a total of 14 points statewide. Other statewide Democrats won by a similar margin.

As for 2018, during Trump’s own midterm, Cuomo’s worst performance in New York City was in Queens, where he “only” won by 60.7 points. Cuomo also won Long Island. He even won Staten Island, albeit by a slim margin.

But in 2022, Governor Hochul won Queens by 26 points, Brooklyn by 43 points, the Bronx by 55 points, and Manhattan by 64 points. Governor Hochul lost Staten Island by 33.6 points and Long Island by 13.92 points.

Democratic support collapsed even further in Upstate New York.

New York Senator Chuck Schumer and New York Attorney General Letitia James won by 13 and 9 points, respectively, whereas Governor Hochul won by just over 5 points.

The four main casualties on a congressional level were New York’s 3rd Congressional District, located in North Nassau County (the western portion of Long Island); New York 4th Congressional District, located in central and south Nassau County; New York 17th Congressional District, located in the Hudson Valley; and the New York 19th Congressional District, also located in the Hudson Valley but further north.

The main losses in the state assembly happened in South Brooklyn, Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Chinese American neighborhoods in New York City.

The state senate races were a bit weird. Republicans made big gains in Upstate New York, but they lost a few state senate seats as well. Democrats lost state senate seats in South Brooklyn and in Queens.

Staten Island and Long Island were a disaster for Democrats on the state legislative level as well.

What Exactly Went Wrong

I would say the disaster that hit Empire State Democrats has multiple and interlocking causes.

From what I know, the relationships among the different factions of New York Democrats are the most dysfunctional I have ever seen.

It is one thing for primaries to get nasty; it is another thing entirely to sabotage each other during a general election either by campaigning for someone else or actively refusing to campaign for them.

Even if you don’t agree with Nick Rafter on everything or even anything (I think he is overly dramatic on COVID-19 shutdowns), he does have a point about how toxic the relationships among the moderate and progressive factions are.

A comment that one far left organizer made in this piece when someone made complaints about crime sums up part of the reason: “Get earplugs.”

That kind of arrogance from the far left is a significant part of the reason the All of Minneapolis campaign was so successful at defeating Yes for Minneapolis on ballot question two in case anyone is wondering.

The far left pretending crime was not a real issue in New York State and was the work of Democrats they disliked played a major role in the disaster that hit New York. Their antics of actively antagonizing working-class voters of color, especially Asian American voters, have only made a bad situation worse.

There was a real rise in crime in New York City after the pandemic, as there was all over the country. The problem was a combination of New York City Mayor Eric Adam’s bad messaging and the far left’s insistence on treating public safety like a nonissue.

However, the far left would not have been able to do so much damage in New York State if the state party had been up for the job.

It was anything but.

In many places across New York City, the state Democratic Party was absent completely, especially in Brooklyn.

Most shameful of all, many Democrats turned to the Russian-affiliated Working Families Party for help because the state party was so useless.

They could not support sustained field operations in New York City (or anywhere else), nor successfully turn out their core voters in New York City. Individual candidates had to fight an uphill battle on their own all over New York State.

That is a searing indictment of the New York State Democratic Party, and New York Democrats need to take a really deep introspective look into the mirror because their operational and messaging failures cost Democrats across the country dearly.

But a significant factor is that Governor Hochul, until way too late, was deeply asleep at the wheel.

Remember how the biggest reason Representative Tim Ryan lost the Senate race was because Ohio was too red and fundamental?

Well, something very similar saved Governor Hochul from losing.

New York was too blue for a MAGA candidate like Lee Zeldin to win against a (relatively) scandal-free Democrat like Governor Hochul, but he came dangerously close.

Governor Kathy Hochul is certainly a better human being than Andrew Cuomo, but it is clear that she does not have his political skills when it comes to maintaining Democratic dominance in the Empire State.

Her campaign was anemic and slow to respond to body blows regarding crime in New York and frustrations around the economy. In addition, Governor Hochul has attempted to appease a far left that still hates her and has not done anywhere near enough to consolidate the loyalty of Democrats who were loyal to Andrew Cuomo. That means she does not have a support base to stand on and still lacks one.

Unless Governor Hochul does a phenomenal job as governor, I hope this is her only term. I don’t know if she can replicate Cuomo’s margins in New York City and either Downstate or Upstate.

Speaking of Cuomo, I think that anyone who thinks the disgraced New York governor would have been able to win this cycle is just wrong.

If New York Democrats had not impeached him or if he had not resigned, then Democrats would have lost the office entirely. Keep in mind that in addition to the sexual harassment allegations, he was dealing with the fallout from the nursing home scandal and collapsing approval ratings. He would have been an incredibly easy target going into 2022.

Solutions

New York Democrats need someone who can replace Andrew Cuomo’s role of running up the margins in New York City and dominating either Upstate or Downstate New York.

It is clear that while removing Andrew Cuomo from the picture may have limited the damage after he lost his ability to control New York, no Democrat has stepped into the role the disgraced New York governor once had.

I have a few ideas of people who can take Cuomo’s place.

I personally believe New York Attorney General Letitia James is the best unifying candidate for New York Democrats to rally behind. Not only is she someone who has actively fought the Trump administration during its tenure, but she does not appear to be heavily involved in the fighting between moderate and far left Democrats in New York State.

She has also helped to land body blows against Trump, both during and after his time in office, and his cronies.

In the meantime, Governor Hochul needs to purge the far left from New York politics and the New York State Democratic Party. She needs to encourage her allies in the state assembly and senate to strip them of their committee assignments whenever possible and back primary challengers.

They are disloyal arsonists who are costing Democrats the support of working-class voters of color in New York City, especially Brooklyn and Queens.

Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York State Democratic Party, must be replaced for not only his failures in 2022 but also his failures in 2021.

It is not a good start that Governor Hochul said she intends to keep him around. It’s an even worse sign she is trying to help Democratic factions that clearly hate each to the point of dysfunction reconcile.

The relationships among the different Democratic factions in New York have deteriorated to such a point that a purge is in order.

If they could not stop fighting during a vital midterm election, I don’t see how they can have a productive relationship.

But I am not ever prepared to give up on the Empire State or the Great Apple.

Stay frosty.