Tuesday open thread: A few more thoughts on polling

Well. 

Yesterday we received two good polls. The CNN Battleground poll showed Democrats doing quite well. And a Siena College poll showed Tim Ryan and JD Vance tied in Ohio. Then we had an ABC poll which showed that voters trusted Republicans over Democrats on the economy.

This continues a trend which many of us have seen: the utter inability of polling to give anywhere near an accurate lay of the land this year.

As I wrote here, polling is no longer a gauge of public sentiment. From people not answering their phones, or ignoring texts, to polling companies having wildly differing methodologies depending on who hires them to conduct the poll, the data is near useless. We can get some inklings from aggregators, but they, too, have their problems, in that they give credence to polls which should be dismissed out of hand. Never in human history have we had so much data, and so little idea of what's actually going on.

This is a short post, and I won't dwell long on the problems we face. Polling has always been as much about molding public opinion as on reflecting it. And it's not just us the great unwashed who have noticed the issues; the respected Pew Research Center also sounds the alarm.

Here is the long and the short of it: We have no bloody clue where the midterms lie. The polling has been, how shall we say, all over the place. So don't get too high or too low with every new poll. You'll have a healthier mental state, and won't veer from elation to despair within the space of a few moments. Do what you can, vote, and go from there.

And always, a wee dram of whisk(e)y helps.

This is your open thread.

***

Enjoyed this post? Never miss out on future posts by following us.