Tuesday open thread: The California recall

Well, here we fucking go again.

My first recall election was in 2003, when the hapless Gray Davis was booted out of office. Now, I voted not to recall him, because he was hit with a confluence of bad events. The joke back then was that California should change its name to "State of Emergency". Although the state had been reliably Democratic in presidential elections since 1988, statewide the GOP still had some pull, and could be competitive. Thus, in 2003 we were still dealing with the results of the awful governance of Pete Wilson. And, in 2003, there was a serious candidate to replace Davis, in the form of Arnold Schwarzenegger. (He wasn't an awful governor. Not bad, not good. Just mediocre, like many of his films. His post-gubernatorial life has been far more rewarding.)

Now, fast-forward to 2021. A recall motion against Governor Gavin Newsom barely made it onto the ballot. Election Day is next Tuesday. We've already been voting via mail for a few weeks. A good place to keep track of the partisan split in the returned ballots can be found at this site. It's early days, but the turnout percentages mirror 2020, when Joe Biden won the state by 30 points. And we have to do this, because a few butt-hurt nincompoops from Huntington Beach weren't happy about masks and vaccines and what Gov. Newsom did to keep Californians safe and rebuild the economy.

There's even less reason to vote out this governor than there was in 2003. The state is booming. Vaccinations are getting in arms. COVID is being beaten. But Republicans are only happy if they're destroying things. Liberal and moderate Californians are not going to allow a radio host to become governor.

And yet, due to the early paucity of polling on this election, and due to a ridiculous outlier poll from SurveyUSA—which gets an "A+" on 538—the great and the good sealed Newsom's fate and declared that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would do the stereotypical "dumb Californian" shuffle and allow Newsom to be recalled and Larry Elder to be elected. This received wisdom was echoed in the media and on Twitter. All was doomed.

Now that polling has caught up, it shows the recall going down to a thrashing defeat. But for weeks we've been subjected to rending of garments and tearing out of hair. Because of one poll. One poll which the media kept hammering at. And now that other polling, and early voting data, show that Yes on the recall is seriously floundering? Crickets. "Oh, it's California, he was never going to be recalled."

The East Coast media understands nothing of what goes on in the country outside of the Acela Corridor. California is still the land of fruitcakes, not the very economic and cultural hub of this country. It was another chance to get digs in at the nuts on the West Coast. And people on social media know that doom-scrolling gets clicks. Being calm and rational and stressing that there had been almost no polling done doesn't get you booked on the yak shows, or get likes for your tweets.

Of course, we have to vote "no". I'm not arguing that we shouldn't be vigilant and expend maximum effort to secure a victory. What I'm arguing is against the reflexive panic whenever anything untoward happens, whenever a rock is thrown into a pond and disturbs its stillness. So many people live to be miserable, and live to make others miserable, that it's, well, miserable. Stop it. Wait for data. Make an informed analysis, not a hot take which will get you noticed. The times are too serious for frivolity.

The probability is that Gavin Newsom will still be governor come September 15. And if he is, just remember that a goodly number of people played on the possible tragedy of him being recalled for clicks and giggles. And you should be very put off by that. Democracy dies in clickbait.