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An Early look at some critical house races: California

The race for the 2022 midterms is already underway, and the number of people running for various House races reflects this fact.

We still don’t know what the map is going to look like, but I can say who is most vulnerable on both sides of the aisle (based mainly on whenever Biden or Trump won the House districts).

I will start with promoting some competitive seats in California.

The races around the most populated state will play a pivotal role in determining control of the House.

I am confident that Democrats can retain control of the Senate. I am far less confident about the House itself thanks in part to redistricting (or, more accurately, gerrymandering) and the fact that the president’s party tends to lose a lot of ground during midterm elections. I will present some people running in California congressional districts where President Biden won but that are still held by Republicans.

Knowing what kind of damage redistricting and election tampering will cause, it is vital that Democrats get an early start on the House races.

The good news is that in California, all the seats that President Biden won but House Democrats lost are good opportunities for a pickup. I will list the candidates, along with “Andres Endorsed” if I think they can win easily.
The main reason I am endorsing Harley Rouda and Jay Chen is that they are the only Democrats running in their respective districts, and the saying that you go to war with the team you have applies especially true here.

I am leading toward Assembly member Parra for the California 21st because she has won tough races in the Central Valley before and is gaining more endorsements at a faster rate.

As for California 25th, I have serious concerns with all of them. Chris Bellingham is a dedicated Bernie supporter, a suicidal position to hold in a district like the California 25th. One of the candidates straight up lied in a Facebook ad. Although I like Christy Smith as a person and a policy maker, she lost twice to Representative Garcia.

Who do you all think is the best fit to defeat Garcia once and for all? Let me know in the comments below.

What’s Guiding My Thinking

Democrats made several serious mistakes that almost cost them the House last cycle.

They overstretched into races they had little chance of winning, canceled in-person events (which allowed the GOP to take over the narrative), approached Hispanic and Asian American voters all wrong, and allowed the actions of the squad to become the dominant image.

Besides running more women and candidates of color (specifically Hispanic and Asian American candidates), Democrats cannot afford to strain their resources in races they have no chance of winning, especially with the fundraising disadvantage the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is at right now.

This means that Democrats must only focus on House seats Biden won but are held by Republicans for expansion and where Democrats are holding on to tight seats. No one else gets any money when it comes to House races.

The factors informing my thinking are the historically low rates of ticket splitting on the ballot, the limited resources that Democrats are operating with now, and the fact that as a rule, the president’s party performs quite badly during midterms because the opposition’s voters are out for blood while the president’s voters are content.

Other things that Democrats must do are to purge the far-left (Democratic or otherwise) elements from the Democratic Party. If their program can’t win citywide in New York City, of all places, it can’t win anywhere.

Extremist elements doing damage to their colleagues’ electoral chances are not new. Part of the reason House Republicans took such heavy losses in 2018 was in part because of a backlash against the Trump administration. In the eyes of voters, all House Republicans were guilty by association.

That same phenomenon cuts both ways, as Democrats learned the hard way in 2020.

Below, I will remind people of who else is running, both this year and in 2022. Donate to everyone if you can. If you must prioritize, Virginia Democrats should come first.

Stay frosty.

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