Archive

Show more
Labels
Posted by

Steak and Ice Cream


Even though it is well over a year until the 2022 midterm elections, it is worth taking an early look.

Depending on how these midterm elections go, President Biden and Vice President Harris could have a much harder time getting anything done or could continue to make rapid progress in a variety of areas.

Historical Patterns

Historically, the president’s party loses a lot of ground in midterm elections. This has been the consistent pattern for the last several decades in American politics.

Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump have suffered their most serious political setbacks during midterms, 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018, respectively. President Ronald Reagan, a legendary Republican in terms of policy (not in a good way), suffered serious midterm losses, as did Presidents Carter, Lyndon B. Johnson, Eisenhower, Truman, and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

The historical pattern is clear. Presidents lose ground during midterm elections.

The circumstances and situations of these losses have varied drastically.

The 1994 losses happened because then Representative Newt Gingrich did something relatively new in American politics.

He nationalized the midterms and unleashed what was then unprecedented partisanship. Gingrich was aided by shifting allegiances in the American South as former conservative Democrats became Republicans.

In 2006, President Bush lost ground in both the House and the Senate because of an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq and a disastrously inept (at best) response to Hurricane Katrina. The economic crisis on the horizon in 2007 and 2008 would spell major losses across the country for the Republican Party in the 2008 elections.

Democrats took catastrophic losses during the 2010 midterm elections on all levels in ways that are still being felt today. The reasons for these losses include the rise of the Tea Party movement, a political realignment, the Democratic Party apparatus being caught asleep at the wheel while drunk off their 2008 victories, and President Obama having to deal with a far left intent on sabotaging his presidency.

The 2018 midterms were a decisive victory for Democrats because Trump went out of his way to demonstrate incompetence and increase the rage of Democrats everywhere. He should have had a good night because during 2018, the economy appeared to be in good shape and the numbers were looking good. Instead, in retrospect, the 2018 midterms were the beginning of the end for Trump.

During the 2020 elections, President Joe Biden won the White House, but down ballot, Democrats took a beating that has left their majority in the House extremely vulnerable and barely won a tenuous majority in the Senate.

With redistricting throwing in another hurdle, the typical pattern when it comes to midterms, and the slimness in both chambers, it’s time to face facts.

Democrats are going to have a tough midterm fight in 2022 and are likely to lose both chambers.

That being said, there are a few caveats.

The old rules of politics are changing. For example, the state of the economy could make or break a campaign in the past—not as much anymore.

Keep in mind that President Biden’s victory in 2020 should not have been possible.

But I would be wrong to suggest that victory in 2022 will be easy or even likely given the known rules.

Current Signs

The signals are quite mixed.

On the one hand, Democrats won by a decisive margin the statewide office of state superintendent in Wisconsin thanks to good leadership from Ben Winkler and high turnout in Madison. In addition, Democrats can count victories in Orange County and Maine as well.

On the other hand, Democrats got locked out of a general election for a special general election in Texas’s 6th Congressional District—all because of a lack of consolidation and attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. This is not a good start to holding the House.

They also lost a special election in New Hampshire for a state House race.

So the signals have been mixed.

The real test will come in November 2021 in Virginia.

I am confident that former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe will win the Democratic nomination. While I will need to see more polling data, I give a light edge to McAuliffe. However, keep in mind that historically, the president’s party tends to lose the governor’s mansion in Virginia with only one exception.

Terry McAuliffe won that mansion as a Democrat in 2013, albeit barely, while President Obama was still in office.

If Democrats can maintain their trifecta, that will be a promising sign.

But if Democrats fail to hold either the Virginia Assembly or the governor’s office, that will spell trouble. If Democrats lose both in 2021, that will indicate disaster in 2022.

So far, I am not sure how the midterms are going to go because the new maps have not been released yet.

What Needs to Happen to Cheat History

If Democrats are going to hold on to their gains and even gain some ground, they need to get some lessons clear now.

I know the maps have not been released yet, but the DCCC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee needed to get involved in recruitment yesterday—same for the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Democrats need to make the Republicans pay dearly for the terrorist attack on the nation’s Capitol. Never let the American people forget what happened on January 6, 2021. In ads, use the fact that a cop was killed as a result of the actions of these terrorists. Make these representatives wear the label of a cop killer. Find out which Republicans are most vulnerable, and make them carry that burden. Attack the GQP by using the testimony of cops who were present at the attack and who were injured or nearly killed. Remember to show footage of the terrorists beating a cop with “Blue Lives Matter” flags, especially with the quote, “Shoot him with his gun.”

For example, use the fact that Representative Mike Garcia of the California 25th Congressional District voted against certifying the election as proof that he is OK with killing and beating cops when he thinks it’s convenient. Those images of police officers getting beaten, crushed, and mauled by these terrorists must be burned into the consciousness of the American people.

Relentless and nonstop—that is how often people need to be reminded.

It would also be prudent to parade the good times returning thanks to Democrats. Things are going back to normal, especially for America’s children. When people enjoy a drink with friends for the first time in months, when the stock market starts to grow rapidly, when unemployment begins to plummet, and when people can finally resume their lives, remind people continuously that it was Democrats who brought things back to normal.

Make sure to start doing outreach to communities of color: Latinos in Northern Los Angeles County, Miami-Dade, Texas, and Arizona. Democrats also must improve their performance with Asian American voters in Orange County, California, and in metropolitan areas in Texas and across the country.

To Democrats everywhere: get over your hang-ups about where your campaign money comes from. That means take the PAC money. Properly staffed and salaried campaigns cost a lot of money in today’s age. Should these hardworking staff members have to starve because you want to be pure?

This isn’t 2018; this is 2022. The odds are not in our favor this time.

Steak

Steak refers to races that Democrats need to win in 2022. Ice cream refers to races that are either farfetched or nonessential.

One of the biggest mistakes Democrats made in 2020 was wasting more than $100 million on races that Democrats had no chance of winning.

In 2022, Democrats must focus on steak.

For the midterms, steak means helping Governors Evers and Whitmer hold on to the governor’s mansions in Wisconsin and Michigan, respectively. Because of who is running the Nevada Democratic Party, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak of Nevada will need extra help as well. Most of all, Kansas Governor Laura Kelly will need a lot of help if she is to hold on to her office.

It also means preparing to win open gubernatorial races in Arizona, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Stacey Abrams, the person largely responsible for winning Georgia for Biden plus Senators Warnock and Ossoff, will be running again for governor of the Peach State.

The Senate races include steak as well. Senators Cortez Masto, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, and Maggie Hanson of Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire, respectively, will need all the help they can get. All four are facing tough reelection campaigns for various reasons. They all need help.

There are three serious pickup opportunities for Democrats in the Senate.

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is one of the most unhinged Republicans in Congress today. For the people of Wisconsin, he must be kicked out of office.

Fortunately, Wisconsin Democrats have been on a statewide winning streak and multiple candidates have stepped forward to challenge Johnson. It is always very difficult to unseat an incumbent, no matter how incompetent they have proven themselves.

The three most promising candidates appear to be Senior Vice President of the Milwaukee Bucks Alex Lasry, Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. I don’t know who I will endorse for this position right now, but I will have relevant links posted.

North Carolina and Pennsylvania have open Senate seats as well. The race for the Pennsylvania Senate seat is already crowded, but in my opinion, the best person currently in the race is State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta. Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is out of the question because he pulled a gun on a Black resident while he was the mayor of Braddock. Running him would be electoral suicide.

But because of how crowded the race is, I am not ready to make an endorsement for the Pennsylvania Senate seat.

I am, however, ready to make an endorsement for the North Carolina Senate seat: Judge Cheri Beasley. Out of everyone running for that seat, Judge Beasley has actually won statewide in this state. Twice.

I will write a full endorsement later.

Ice Cream

Trying to get statewide seats in places like Iowa, Ohio, and Texas is ice cream.

This means that these races are most likely to be money pits.

In 2022, we cannot afford money pits.

Hundreds of millions of dollars went into money pits.

Don’t rage donate to someone running in Kentucky or any races like that.

Focus.

The Question of Florida

I am not sure if Florida is steak or ice cream.

On one hand, ignoring Florida would be foolish because of how fast it is growing and its light shade of red. But on the other hand, Democrats have been getting butchered consistently in the Sunshine State no matter how much money and effort is poured into the state.

What do you all think?

I will include Representative Charlie Crist and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, both of whom are running for governor of Florida.

Democratic Statewide Incumbents Who Need Help

For one reason or another, these Democratic incumbents will need extra help winning in 2022, from running in tough states to bad decisions made on the ground by their states Democratic Parties.

Either way, make sure to spread the word about these races.

Best Potential Pickups for Democrats

In these races, there is a solid opportunity for Democrats to pick up either a governor’s mansion or a Senate seat. With one exception, I have not yet endorsed anyone in these races, so I will bring up the top four at most per race.

My endorsements here are based solely on who I think will win. If you have a difference of analysis, please let me know. I am open to changing my mind. More importantly, just because I don’t endorse someone does not mean I dislike them.

The one candidate I will not promote is Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Running him for the Senate would be political suicide.

Potential Candidates

These are potential candidates who are either about to announce or have expressed interest in running for a statewide office. Either way, keep an eye out for these candidates.
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms, Mayor of Atlanta, Governor, Georgia.
  • Stacey Abrams, Voting Rights Activist and Candidate for Georgia Governor 2018, Governor, Georgia.
  • Ron Kind, Representative WI 3, US Senate, Wisconsin.
  • Conor Lamb, Representative PA 17, US Senate, Pennsylvania.

When I get more information on individual battleground states, I will devote more information on other statewide offices, such as attorney general.

Keep your eyes open, and remember we have some critical races going on in Virginia.
Labels: