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Situation Report: Virginia and New Jersey Races


Although it is vital to pay attention to the 2022 midterms, plenty of critical elections are going on this year.

New Jersey and Virginia are having gubernatorial and state legislative elections on Tuesday, November 2, 2021.

The races that occur before a midterm election can serve as useful (though not surefire) indicators of the current political environment.

For example, when Democrats won the 2017 gubernatorial race by a bigger-than-expected margin, it was a canary in the coal mine for the GOP. An even more serious warning for Republicans came when Democrats nearly seized control of the Virginia House of Delegates despite how little energy that chamber was getting from Democratic operatives.

Historically, the party not holding the White House tends to win the Virginia governor’s mansion. If Democrats can break that trend and hold the governor’s mansion, it might be a sign that they can defy historical trends about how a president’s party performs during midterm elections.

Pay attention to these races, and if you can, send help.

New Jersey

Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey is up for reelection this November, as are both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. In 2020, New Jersey voted for President Biden by about 16 percentage points.

If there are any surprises in the Republicans’ favor in this state, that spells serious trouble for Democrats everywhere. New Jersey is a really blue state. Democrats should be able to win here easily.

Virginia

Remember, it was not too long ago that Republicans had complete control of Virginia’s state legislature, and even now, Democratic control is only tentative.

It is not beyond reach for Republicans to reclaim the Virginia House of Delegates.

Despite said tentative control, Virginia Democrats have been able to make significant progress on a variety of issues.

To the surprise of no one, the Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidates are in Trump’s mold. This means that all of the candidates who are running are promoting the big lie.

For the good of the people of Virginia, Democrats must hold on to their 2017 and 2019 gains.

I will post the races in Virginia because the stakes are just as high there and nowhere near as guaranteed as New Jersey to go well.

Below, I will post the candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, and candidates for the delegates race that will decide the fate of that chamber.
Pay close attention to these races. They will serve as an important bellwether for 2022.

Stay frosty.
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