Texas Two-Step: Breaking Down Tonight's Crockett/Talarico Democratic Senate Primary

We once again have a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party. 

This time around, we're heading to Texas for tonight's Senate primary. Long seen as the Shangri-La for Dems, shifting Texas from a red to purple and ultimately blue state would end the modern Republican Party as we know it. Unfortunately, for the last 30 years, Texas has remained reliably red despite there having been a renewed push over the last decade for the Democratic Party to narrow the gap. Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke made national news by visiting all 254 Texas counties on his way to a narrow loss to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, so there was reason for optimism. In 2020, the statewide vote was won by Donald Trump by less than 6 points, a 3-point improvement from 2016 and a 10-point gain from 2012. However, the last two election cycles have demonstrated that Texas is still very much red rather than purple at this point. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott defeated O'Rourke by 11 points in 2022, and Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024. Despite this regression, the national Democratic Party is still invested in Texas, and Donald Trump's sheer desperation to gerrymander the state to pick up 5 congressional seats shows how Republicans want to try and maximize Texas's "redness" while they still have the chance. 

And while Texas may seem to be trending in the wrong direction, what true Democrats know is that the state is a non-voting state rather than a red one. In other words, there exists enough potential Democratic votes to eventually turn the tide, assuming that barriers are removed for college students, low-income individuals, immigrants, and people of color. These barriers are, of course, by design to allow Texas to continue to have one of the lowest voter turnouts in the entire country. Texas lacks same-day voter registration, no-excuse absentee voting, and its forms of acceptable ID include a Texas handgun license but not a college ID. This is why Beto O'Rourke did what he could to register new voters during his two statewide runs and why he recently helped launch a multilingual interactive voter assistance hotline this past October to help provide critical information to new voters. Having 2026 as a critical year for the party, Texas Democrats have upped their game at a time when they're going to have to do everything in their power to offset the inevitable GOP House pickups from their rigged gerrymandering scheme. They simply can't afford to do business as usual when so much is at stake. 

Suffice it to say, there is once again an opportunity for Democrats in Texas. And nothing lights a fire like a competitive and heated Senate primary. 

Which is exactly what we're getting this evening. With Senate Republican incumbent John Cornyn facing dismal approval ratings and a viable challenge from State Attorney General Ken Paxton, it is actually Democrats who are breaking records for their primary turnout. This has to do with a fierce battle between incumbent Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico in what has become a proxy battle for the larger 2026 political ecosphere. As a woman of color, Crockett is leaning into her base and recently received the endorsement of Kamala Harris. She is portraying herself as a fighter and is tapping into anti-MAGA sentiment throughout the state. She famously went toe-to-toe with Marjorie Taylor-Greene during a congressional hearing and gave us an all-time burn in the process. Talarico has gone in the opposite direction. He has tried to paint himself as a uniter and someone who can bring Republicans into the modern Democratic Party. He has gone on Joe Rogan's podcast. He has been critical of both Joe Biden and Colin Allred, the latter of whom he referred to as a "mediocre" candidate. Naturally, Allred did not mince words in his rebuke of Talarico and demanded an apology, one he says never came. Having drawn national attention, the race has led to nearly $30 million in campaign contributions, with Talarico capturing over 70% of that amount. Polls have been all over the map, with the latest Emerson College poll showing a 5-point Talarico lead. Both sides are remaining confident heading into the campaign's final hours.

While this singular primary will be long forgotten by November, it will be telling for all to see. Because what we're seeing in Texas is a microcosm for the larger Democratic Party as a whole. Jasmine Crockett is the base. She is a Black woman who does her job and does it well. Her campaign has not only ruffled Republicans but has ruffled the racist far left as well. It's only when a strong candidate of color emerges that the far left all of a sudden has concerns about "statewide electability," as we've seen with this particular race. The electability argument is a dog whistle for "we really don't want a Black woman running on the ticket," as no such concerns have been raised about Talarico having to work to win over people of color should he end up being the nominee. Yet once again, we see the far left bare its whole ass in trying to imply that even by winning the primary, Crockett would somehow be a weaker general election candidate.

There are also signs that Talarico would be John Fetterman 2.0 were he to win the primary and the general election. In addition to his criticism of Joe Biden, we've seen Talarico willing accept PAC money from Miriam Adelson, the notorious GOP megadonor. In his pitch to voters, he's often stated that he's going up against the "establishment" of both Democrats and Republicans, a dangerous position that we've seen emerge time and time again from those like Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and Bernie Sanders, among others. Along with Graham Platner of Maine, Talarico represents a new wave of progressive "heroes" that seemingly only exist in a world where White men are entitled to their own Senate run rather than their equally talented women opponents. Rather than disowning the electability argument against his opponent, Talarico has leaned into it and has become convinced of its merit. It seems as if his "mediocre" characterization applies much less to someone like Colin Allred and much more to himself. Nothing says privilege like insisting you know how to do something better than people of color, as he's stated first with Colin Allred and now Jasmine Crockett. 

What happens tonight is not the end-all, be-all, but it will be instructive. Are Texas Democrats going with the stronger overall candidate? Or do they honestly believe in the whole electability argument? Which candidate's strategy is more appealing to independents? And which candidate, in bringing out this record turnout, has successfully mobilized their own base to boost these turnout numbers? 

For Texas's sake and for the sake of the Democratic Party as a whole, let's hope the answer to that last question is none other than Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.