Democrats in Array: TN-07 Edition

"You're telling me an R+10 district is in play!?"

This was my exact reaction to last Wednesday's shock Emerson poll that showed a neck-and-neck race for tomorrow's special TN-07 congressional election. The fact that this district, in a ruby red part of Tennessee that Donald Trump won by 22 points last year, is even remotely competitive should send shivers down the spine of every Republican who has sold his or her soul to Donald Trump over the past 13 months. With nearly 2 in 5 voters identifying the economy as the top issue, it should come as no surprise that voters in this district are less than thrilled with the way the Trump Administration has completely botched the post-pandemic recovery set in motion by the Biden Administration. Over a year into Donald Trump's term, voters are gradually becoming aware of his ever-growing list of failed policies, largely due to his disastrous tariffs that have pushed up prices on American goods and hurt consumers across the board. Even in conservative middle Tennessee, voters are taking notice that Republicans have done absolutely nothing to help them since taking over in January of this year. 

But this is a crisis absolutely of the GOP's own making. They've been given complete control of the Executive and Legislative branches of our government (and, let's be honest, the Judicial as well) and have had free rein to enact whatever laws they saw fit. Instead, we've seen the current Congress pass only 27 bills through the summer and then proceed to have GOP House leadership keep the body from meeting for nearly 7 weeks during the government shutdown, largely so that new Arizona Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva wouldn't be seated and proceed to vote on the discharge petition to release the Epstein Files. While Democrats prioritized SNAP benefits and the extension of the ACA subsidies during the shutdown, Republicans sat on their asses, proudly ignoring hundreds of thousands of government workers missing paychecks and low-income families facing uncertainty as to whether or not they'd be receiving their full SNAP benefits right before the holidays. This overall callousness toward working families was felt everywhere, including middle Tennessee. While the 7th district is a diverse region from democratic Nashville to bellwether Clarksville to conservative Franklin, it is generally seen as a gimme for the Tennessee GOP. It being in play is a severe rebuke of Donald Trump and his endorsed MAGA candidate Matt Van Epps and shows that no candidate, even in red states, can overcome the stank of Donald Trump's failed agenda over the past 10 months. 

We know the House is in play in 2026. But today's special election will tell us just how in Democrats can go on what would normally be seen as unwinnable races. The Cook Political Report ranks swing districts from likely Democrat to likely Republican, with a district like TN-07 clearly in the likely Republican column. But if today's likely result is any indication, there will be nothing "safe" about any Republican swing seat in 2026, nor should there be. Whether in Tennessee or Michigan or Texas or Florida, Republicans can and should be forced to answer for their party's complete disregard for working Americans over the past 10 months. Trump loves to complement the "historic" stock market, but that doesn't matter to Americans struggling to keep up with the cost of inflation or widespread job losses in areas unnecessarily falling victim to his asinine trade wars. Combined with the now-defunct DOGE cutting tens of thousands of government jobs and voters are gradually realizing that Republicans use them for their vote and then abandon them as soon as policy can be made that benefits the wealthy few at the top. The leopards have been eating well these past ten months, but there have been more and more signs that while the cult of Trump remains powerful, there are a number of voters gradually realizing that Trump and Republicans couldn't care less about them or their well-being. Middle Tennessee voters will put that to the test this evening. 

A test that national Republicans never saw coming 10 months ago.