Flashing Red: A review of the Trump Administration so far

Trump has been back in the White House for just over fifty days, and already several vital indicators are flashing red.

The Economy/Other Domestic Policy

The stock market lost all of its gains after Trump’s victory in the 2024 general election. As of this writing, it has also wiped out all of the six-month gains (update, the stock market is back in the green in the six month time frame).

While it is important to keep in mind that the stock market alone does not signal economic health, if it is flashing red for a sustained period of time, that does spell trouble.

Other economic indicators are flashing red as well.

Unemployment is starting to creep back up, as is inflation. The February jobs report was far weaker than those under President Biden. Consumer confidence is showing signs of a nervous market.

Keep in mind that although the economy inherited by Trump was not perfect (President Biden needed more time), it was an excellent foundation to build on. Strong job reports, reliably low unemployment, inflation cooling off. All the numbers were pointing in the right direction.

Now, they are pointing in the wrong direction.

Any president typically gets too much blame or credit for how the macroeconomy is doing, especially with indicators like the stock market. But Trump’s decisions regarding tariffs and other policies have created a potential recession in the making.

His obsession with starting trade wars with American allies has not only hit the pocketbooks of countless Americans hard, these decisions have also done irreparable damage on the international stage.

Trump is fundamentally an opportunist who will do what he thinks is in his best interests personally at the moment, regardless of the cost to other people.

Evidently, that includes rich people who helped bankroll his campaigns, considering how much money they lost as a result of his trade wars.

One prediction I got wrong was mass deportations. I expected this current administration to invest a lot of time in deporting an unprecedented number of people, with the caveat that a lot of logistical things would go wrong and a lot of innocent people would get caught up in these efforts.

I was right about innocent people being targeted (innocent in the legal context of immigration law), but I was wrong about the effort to deport massive numbers of people.

In fact, Trump has on average deported fewer people per month than President Biden did, a fact that surprised me.

Before anyone you know says that what needs to be done is unprecedented, Trump already has a solid infrastructure to work with to keep up the pace of deportations under Biden, if not pick up the pace a bit. This infrastructure takes the form of ICE and a network of detention centers around the country.

So, did the agricultural sector’s begging and pleading work?

Possibly, but considering that begging and pleading from various other sectors of the economy and Wall Street failed to stop the trade wars, I suspect something else is at play here, though I don’t know what.

That does not mean ICE has gotten any kinder or more restrained. In fact, based on how ICE officials are treating Canadian businesswomen with incomplete paperwork, I can only imagine how bad it is for those with fewer resources and allies.

If anyone says these mass deportations are already underway but in secret, I understand Trump well enough at this point to know he would brag on TV all day if he were deporting huge numbers of people. He might even lie about it.

Maybe he has decided that permanently destroying America’s credibility overseas takes precedence over mass deportations. I don’t want to jinx it.

Foreign Policy

What I was most overly optimistic about was foreign policy.

Trump has aligned with Putin much faster than I thought possible, along with destroying what goodwill America had left with our traditional Democratic allies.

America’s once unbreakable friendship with Canada is shattered amid an unprovoked trade war. It is clear to me that the Canadians are feeling this betrayal acutely, and they are in no mood to confer with us Americans.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, my governor, had to smooth things over with Ontario Premier Doug Ford to prevent sending energy bills soaring or cutting off electricity to Minnesota. I imagine other governors who share a border with Canada have had to make similar efforts because of a fire the president started.

Based on the actions and words of newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, it is clear that most of Europe no longer trusts us as reliable and believes they will have to face Russia alone. Even worse, Poland is so nervous that it has started an unprecedented military buildup and is even in the process of getting nuclear weapons.

I imagine our traditional allies in Asia and Oceania are making similar calculations.

These unprovoked actions have not only permanently damaged the trust of our allies, they have emboldened America’s adversaries, from Russia and its invasion of Ukraine to China feeling as though it has more of a free reign.

America’s power has been inextricably and quite likely permanently weakened thanks to the first weeks of the Trump administration.

But worst of all is the betrayal of the Ukrainian people in their struggle against Russian imperialism and tyranny.

Not only did the Trump administration cut off military aid to people in desperate need of it (it was only costing us leftover hardware from the US military), he also cut off intelligence to the Ukrainians about incoming Russian attacks.

Sadly, the Russian army has taken advantage of this to attack Ukrainian civilians much more than before.

At the very least, Trump has empowered a tyrant to terrorize millions of people more than already possible.

More flashing red.

State of the Federal Government

Trump has taken a sledgehammer to the federal government.

We all joke about how many planes have been crashing since Trump got into office, but DOGE taking a sledgehammer to the Federal Aviation Administration, or FAA, is going to have much more serious consequences.

Mainly, it will exacerbate a shortage of staff critical for ensuring the safety of our skies. I am thinking of air traffic controllers.

Vital areas in the FDA and CDC are getting slashed and burned with no regard for what these staff actually do. Amazing medical research is getting cut for no discernible reason. Same for the Department of Education and special education services.

The part about special ed hits close to home for me.

The rest of Trump’s appointees are either actively destroying the departments they are supposed to be heading or are pursuing malignant goals through them.

The line between those two categories is quite blurry.

But arguably most serious of all, Musk and his DOGE minions have demonstrated an utter lack of regard for other people’s hard-earned money.

Including Social Security accounts and the IRS.

I, for one, do not trust DOGE with my banking information.

Critical care for veterans in a crisis has been slashed, along with programs to help feed the hungry and vulnerable.

What is left of the federal government is clearly being weaponized to target Trump’s political opponents.

The state of the federal government is flashing red.

Some Food For Thought

Why is so much of our paychecks going to the federal government if all it is going to do is hurt innocent people and people I care for? If it is only going to enrich a racist billionaire and his cronies?

Why are our paychecks going toward propping up parts of this country that would not think twice about harming or killing people I care deeply for?

What is the point of this Supreme Court if it is only going to endorse the worst impulses of those with the right connections and money?

I don’t want my money going to support people who I know are a threat to the safety of me and mine.

America has been in a particular cycle for the last three decades.

Republicans make a major mess, typically an economic crisis, often times more. Democrats are elected to clean up the mess. Combined with a Republican base and party out for blood, Americans decide to put Republicans back in office to make a mess again. Often, it appears, out of boredom.

Tell me this does not describe American politics since the 1992 presidential election.

I was born 4/25/1996. This cycle is all I have ever known. It is getting quite tiring.

The Constitution and this union are not in a suicide pact. I can’t speak for the rest of you, but I have no desire to keep this up.

Something must give; this cycle is not sustainable.

Assuming we can keep the republic in the meantime.