The Establishment Bar Election Day Guide
Breathe.
We won't know who our next president is tonight. We won't know who our next president is tomorrow. Thursday? Perhaps. Friday? Hopefully. But if 2024 is anything like 2020 then we have a long few days ahead of us.
But that doesn't mean we won't know how we're doing. Inevitable trends will emerge as soon as the first polls start closing at 6:30 PM EST. Below is a guide to what to watch for as the evening unfolds. Trust in Kamala. Trust in Tim. And trust in an America where there are more of us than there are of them.
Here is your official Establishment Bar Election Day guide, listed by when polls are closing on the East Coast. (*note* Only the most competitive House and Senate races are listed as there are simply too many to list for the non-competitive races)
6:30 PM
States: Polls close in 90% of Indiana and half of Kentucky. Indiana likely won't be called until after 7 PM and will likely stay GOP.
Senate: The open Indiana seat will likely stay in GOP hands. However, if the result is within 5 points, that could be a red flag for Republicans whose senate candidate Jim Banks has consistently had a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Valerie McCray.
7:00 PM
States: The rest of Indiana and Kentucky finish voting and likely remain red. Vermont (blue) and South Carolina (red) should get called shortly after 7. Virginia is our first true bellwether and if it's called within the hour that bodes well for Dems. Georgia also closes at 7 and along with North Carolina remains the most likely swing state to have results at some point on election night. If Georgia ends up being called for the Democrats, it's a *huge* blow to Trump. Roughly 90% of Florida's polls close but the western panhandle remains open for another hour as it lies in central standard time.
Senate: None.
7:30 PM
States: North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close. North Carolina is a true swing state this cycle and will go later into the evening but there remains a strong chance it gets called today which, along with Georgia, would be the first major swing states to be called. Ohio will likely stay red but has critical Senate implications. West Virginia will be called early and will go to Trump.
Senate: West Virginia will be the first red-to-blue flip of the night. Democrat Sherrod Brown's victory is critical for Democrats to keep the Senate and folks in Ohio will likely split their ticket. If enough Republicans cross over, Brown has a strong chance. This race, along with Montana, will likely determine control of the United States Senate.
We won't know who our next president is tonight. We won't know who our next president is tomorrow. Thursday? Perhaps. Friday? Hopefully. But if 2024 is anything like 2020 then we have a long few days ahead of us.
But that doesn't mean we won't know how we're doing. Inevitable trends will emerge as soon as the first polls start closing at 6:30 PM EST. Below is a guide to what to watch for as the evening unfolds. Trust in Kamala. Trust in Tim. And trust in an America where there are more of us than there are of them.
Here is your official Establishment Bar Election Day guide, listed by when polls are closing on the East Coast. (*note* Only the most competitive House and Senate races are listed as there are simply too many to list for the non-competitive races)
6:30 PM
States: Polls close in 90% of Indiana and half of Kentucky. Indiana likely won't be called until after 7 PM and will likely stay GOP.
Senate: The open Indiana seat will likely stay in GOP hands. However, if the result is within 5 points, that could be a red flag for Republicans whose senate candidate Jim Banks has consistently had a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Valerie McCray.
House holds: None.
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
House red-to-blue flips: None.
Other races of note: None.
7:00 PM
States: The rest of Indiana and Kentucky finish voting and likely remain red. Vermont (blue) and South Carolina (red) should get called shortly after 7. Virginia is our first true bellwether and if it's called within the hour that bodes well for Dems. Georgia also closes at 7 and along with North Carolina remains the most likely swing state to have results at some point on election night. If Georgia ends up being called for the Democrats, it's a *huge* blow to Trump. Roughly 90% of Florida's polls close but the western panhandle remains open for another hour as it lies in central standard time.
Senate: None.
House holds: Frank Mrvan (IN-01)
House open seats: Alex Vindman (VA-07)
House open seats: Alex Vindman (VA-07)
Potential House red-to-blue flips: Missy Cotter Smasal (VA-02)
Other races of note: None.
7:30 PM
States: North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close. North Carolina is a true swing state this cycle and will go later into the evening but there remains a strong chance it gets called today which, along with Georgia, would be the first major swing states to be called. Ohio will likely stay red but has critical Senate implications. West Virginia will be called early and will go to Trump.
Senate: West Virginia will be the first red-to-blue flip of the night. Democrat Sherrod Brown's victory is critical for Democrats to keep the Senate and folks in Ohio will likely split their ticket. If enough Republicans cross over, Brown has a strong chance. This race, along with Montana, will likely determine control of the United States Senate.
House holds: Don Davis (NC-01), Greg Landsman (OH-01), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Emilia Sykes (OH-13)
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
Potential House red-to-blue flips: None.
Other races of note: The North Carolina governor's race pits cuckoo bananas Mark Robinson versus Democrat Josh Stein. Stein is a heavy favorite and the question becomes how much Robinson depresses Republican turnout. In Ohio, there is a ballot initiative to end partisan gerrymandering. As one of the worst offenders of gerrymandering, Ohio Republicans want this to fail whereas Ohio Democrats would welcome the opportunity to have free and fair elections where citizens get to pick their elected officials and not the other way around as has been the norm under Republican rule.
10:00 PM
States: Polls close in red Utah, Idaho, and Montana and in swing state Nevada, where we are unlikely to learn of the result on election night.
Senate: All eyes turn to the Treasure State of Montana to see if Jon Tester can hold his seat as the most vulnerable Democratic senator. Should Tester lose, Dems will have to hold their other seats including Ohio and somehow pick up a seat in a longshot like Florida, Texas, or even Nebraska. In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen seems likely to retain her seat over Republican challenger Sam Brown.
11:00 PM
States: Polls close on the West Coast with California, Oregon, and Washington all being called on the hour for Kamala Harris.
Senate: None.
12:00 AM
States: Hawai'i has entered the chat! Hawai'i will be solidly blue as always.
Senate: None.
8:00 PM
States: The polls close in the western panhandle of Florida and the state likely won't be called for hours. The closer it is, the more troublesome for Trump as he absolutely needs to win Florida whereas a Harris victory would all but guarantee her the presidency. Immediate calls for Harris will be made in Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and DC. Within the hour, we should add on a victory to Harris in New Hampshire. Michigan will likely go into Wednesday, a key swing state that Biden won by nearly 150,000 votes in 2020. The GOP will claim victories in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Missouri. States across time zones with partial poll closings include Texas, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The night's prime jewel, Pennsylvania, has its polls close at 8 PM but as we saw in 2020 it may take 3+ days to get us a final tally from the highly contested swing state.
Senate: Democrats should be able to keep the open seats in Michigan with Elissa Slotkin likely to defeat Republican Mike Rogers and in Maryland with Angela Alsobrooks likely to defeat "independent" Republican Larry Hogan. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey, Jr. should be able to hold off Connecticut Republican Dave McCormick in a race that Casey should win by 5+ points. This cycle's most vulnerable Republican, Rick Scott, faces off against Democratic challenger Debbie Muscarsel-Powell in Florida in a race that, if close, could be hotly contested if there is a single seat difference for control of the Senate.
States: Polls close in red Arkansas with a likely GOP call by 9 PM.
Senate: None.
House holds: None.
House open seats: None.
States: The polls close in the western panhandle of Florida and the state likely won't be called for hours. The closer it is, the more troublesome for Trump as he absolutely needs to win Florida whereas a Harris victory would all but guarantee her the presidency. Immediate calls for Harris will be made in Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and DC. Within the hour, we should add on a victory to Harris in New Hampshire. Michigan will likely go into Wednesday, a key swing state that Biden won by nearly 150,000 votes in 2020. The GOP will claim victories in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Missouri. States across time zones with partial poll closings include Texas, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The night's prime jewel, Pennsylvania, has its polls close at 8 PM but as we saw in 2020 it may take 3+ days to get us a final tally from the highly contested swing state.
Senate: Democrats should be able to keep the open seats in Michigan with Elissa Slotkin likely to defeat Republican Mike Rogers and in Maryland with Angela Alsobrooks likely to defeat "independent" Republican Larry Hogan. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey, Jr. should be able to hold off Connecticut Republican Dave McCormick in a race that Casey should win by 5+ points. This cycle's most vulnerable Republican, Rick Scott, faces off against Democratic challenger Debbie Muscarsel-Powell in Florida in a race that, if close, could be hotly contested if there is a single seat difference for control of the Senate.
House holds: Eric Sorensen (IL-17), Jared Golden (ME-02), Curtis Hertel (MI-07), Chris Pappas (NH-01), Tom Suozzi (NY-03), Pat Ryan (NY-18), Don Davis (NC-01), Susan Wild (PA-07), Matt Cartwright (PA-08), Chris Deluzio (PA-17)
House open seats: MD-06 (April McClain Delaney), MI-08 (Kristen McDonald Rivet), NH-02 (Maggie Goodlander)
House open seats: MD-06 (April McClain Delaney), MI-08 (Kristen McDonald Rivet), NH-02 (Maggie Goodlander)
Potential House red-to-blue flips: Carl Marlinga (MI-10), Susan Altman (NJ-07), John Avlon (NY-01), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Mondaire Jones (NY-17), Josh Riley (NY-19), John Mannion (NY-22), Ashley Ehasz (PA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10)
Other races of note: Floridians will be voting on protecting a woman's right to choose and recreational marijuana, both issues likely to drive Democratic-leaning voters to the polls. Marylanders and Missourians will also be voting for ballot initiatives to protect a woman's right to choose. New Hampshire has a key opportunity to flip its governor's seat with Democrat Joyce Craig taking on known Trumper Kelly Ayotte.
8:30 PM Other races of note: Floridians will be voting on protecting a woman's right to choose and recreational marijuana, both issues likely to drive Democratic-leaning voters to the polls. Marylanders and Missourians will also be voting for ballot initiatives to protect a woman's right to choose. New Hampshire has a key opportunity to flip its governor's seat with Democrat Joyce Craig taking on known Trumper Kelly Ayotte.
States: Polls close in red Arkansas with a likely GOP call by 9 PM.
Senate: None.
House holds: None.
House open seats: None.
Potential House red-to-blue flips: None.
Other races of note: None.
9:00 PM
States: Polls close in red strongholds of Texas, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Harris will pick up wins in New York, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, and the Omaha district of Nebraska. Critical swing state races at the 9 PM hour will be Wisconsin and Arizona and their result likely won't be known for several hours and may bleed into Wednesday or perhaps even Thursday. And thanks to this past weekend's shock poll from the Hawkeye State, we also get to see if Ann Selzer is again on the money with her prediction that Iowa might actually turn blue in what would be a huge shocker and huge boost to the Harris-Walz campaign.
Senate: Everybody hates Ted Cruz but despite that, he seems likely to remain in his seat over Democratic challenger Colin Allred. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin should be able to keep her seat with a victory over Republican challenger Eric Hovde. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego has consistently had a double-digit lead over Republican challenger and certified loony Kari Lake so this looks to be a great chance to hold the seat for an actual Democrat rather than an embarrassment like Democrat-turned-turncoat Kyrsten Sinema. The intriguing Senate race at this hour is Nebraska where incumbent Republican Deb Fischer is somehow running neck-and-neck with independent candidate Dan Osborn, who has publicly stated that he would not caucus with either party if elected. Imagine control of the United States government coming down to the swing vote of a single Nebraska senator. Stranger things have happened, but knowing this is even a possibility is wild.
9:00 PM
States: Polls close in red strongholds of Texas, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Harris will pick up wins in New York, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, and the Omaha district of Nebraska. Critical swing state races at the 9 PM hour will be Wisconsin and Arizona and their result likely won't be known for several hours and may bleed into Wednesday or perhaps even Thursday. And thanks to this past weekend's shock poll from the Hawkeye State, we also get to see if Ann Selzer is again on the money with her prediction that Iowa might actually turn blue in what would be a huge shocker and huge boost to the Harris-Walz campaign.
Senate: Everybody hates Ted Cruz but despite that, he seems likely to remain in his seat over Democratic challenger Colin Allred. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin should be able to keep her seat with a victory over Republican challenger Eric Hovde. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego has consistently had a double-digit lead over Republican challenger and certified loony Kari Lake so this looks to be a great chance to hold the seat for an actual Democrat rather than an embarrassment like Democrat-turned-turncoat Kyrsten Sinema. The intriguing Senate race at this hour is Nebraska where incumbent Republican Deb Fischer is somehow running neck-and-neck with independent candidate Dan Osborn, who has publicly stated that he would not caucus with either party if elected. Imagine control of the United States government coming down to the swing vote of a single Nebraska senator. Stranger things have happened, but knowing this is even a possibility is wild.
House holds: Yadira Caraveo (CO-08), Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
Potential House red-to-blue flips: Amish Shah (AZ-01), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), Adam Frisch (CO-03), Christina Bohannon (IA-01), Lanon Baccam (IA-03), Tony Vargas (NE-02), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03)
Other races of note: Arizonans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose as well as an anti-immigration bill that attempts to give local law enforcement the right to question, arrest, detain, and prosecute anyone expected of crossing the border illegally. Coloradans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose and will be voting to repeal a previous amendment that prohibited the use of state funds to provide abortion coverage. Nebraskans will be voting on competing abortion bills: one will make it illegal to have an abortion in the second and third trimesters while the other will establish the fundamental right to an abortion. New Yorkers will be voting to amend the state constitution's equal rights amendment to include anti-discrimination for pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.
Other races of note: Arizonans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose as well as an anti-immigration bill that attempts to give local law enforcement the right to question, arrest, detain, and prosecute anyone expected of crossing the border illegally. Coloradans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose and will be voting to repeal a previous amendment that prohibited the use of state funds to provide abortion coverage. Nebraskans will be voting on competing abortion bills: one will make it illegal to have an abortion in the second and third trimesters while the other will establish the fundamental right to an abortion. New Yorkers will be voting to amend the state constitution's equal rights amendment to include anti-discrimination for pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.
10:00 PM
States: Polls close in red Utah, Idaho, and Montana and in swing state Nevada, where we are unlikely to learn of the result on election night.
Senate: All eyes turn to the Treasure State of Montana to see if Jon Tester can hold his seat as the most vulnerable Democratic senator. Should Tester lose, Dems will have to hold their other seats including Ohio and somehow pick up a seat in a longshot like Florida, Texas, or even Nebraska. In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen seems likely to retain her seat over Republican challenger Sam Brown.
House holds: Dina Titus (NV-01), Susie Lee (NV-03), Steven Horsford (NV-04)
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
Potential House red-to-blue flips: None.
Other races of note: Nevadans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose.
Other races of note: Nevadans will be voting on a ballot initiative to protect a woman's right to choose.
11:00 PM
States: Polls close on the West Coast with California, Oregon, and Washington all being called on the hour for Kamala Harris.
Senate: None.
House holds: Dave Min (CA-47), Andrea Salinas (OR-06), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
Potential House red-to-blue flips: Adam Gray (CA-13), Rudy Salas (CA-22), George Whitesides (CA-27), Will Rollins (CA-41), Derek Tran (CA-45), Janelle Bynum (OR-05)
Other races of note: None.12:00 AM
States: Hawai'i has entered the chat! Hawai'i will be solidly blue as always.
Senate: None.
House holds: None.
House open seats: None.
House open seats: None.
House red-to-blue flips: None.
Other races of note: None.
Other races of note: None.
1:00 AM
States: Don't sleep on Alaska! Alaska likely remains red but I say likely because there is always an absence of polling from the state but anything within 5 points should be considered a massive win for Democrats.
Senate: None.
Other races of note: None.
Senate: None.
House holds: The AK-AL (Alaska-at-large) congressional race is one to watch. With ranked-choice voting, Democrat Mary Pelota managed to take out Sarah Palin and a second Republican candidate in 2022. This time around, she is in a crowded field with 4 candidates total but if Alaska voters can again coalesce around her she may very well win re-election for a second time.
House open seats: None.
House red-to-blue flips: None.House open seats: None.
Other races of note: None.
***
Like what you're reading? Never miss another post! Get notified via email here.
Want to save democracy? Donate below! All donations go to Kamala.